torontoduke
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Not trying to piss all over a great night, it is just something I have been thinking about with one less perimeter player on the roster.
torontoduke
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I knew I could count on you to correct my doubts
:D
:D
ZackM said:
torontoduke
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I like BlueDevilU's name for the starting backcourt: COJONES
Pantone287
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DurhamSon said:
Yup. We're probably overreacting to Okafor's atrocity of a game a bit, as UVA is going to be the best team in the country at quickly collapsing/doubling on him and recovering without issue, but it's pretty clear our offense is better and more active when it goes through Tyus and Cook. Specifically, I'd like to see them combine for probably 12 3PA/game from here on out (they were already close to ten before we lost Sulaimon). There's something to be said about taking what's given to you, but it's not an excuse for MJ/Winslow to be taking more threes than them up until the last couple minutes.
K not running offense through his diminutive guards or launching enough threes is not generally an issue, though. I have a lot more hope that'll eventually get figured out than I did some of our other issues.
rome8180
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Not gonna happen. Can't happen for image reasons.
Also, I think merely saying that they should be the highest usage players misses how important it is to have Okafor as a centerpiece. He creates opportunities merely by existing. If anyone's usage should be lowered, it's Winslow's.
But anyway, someone's going to take Sheed's shots. Hopefully it will be Tyus and Quinn. Of course, that would only affect usage for the minutes Sheed overlapped with those guys on the floor.
Also, I think merely saying that they should be the highest usage players misses how important it is to have Okafor as a centerpiece. He creates opportunities merely by existing. If anyone's usage should be lowered, it's Winslow's.
But anyway, someone's going to take Sheed's shots. Hopefully it will be Tyus and Quinn. Of course, that would only affect usage for the minutes Sheed overlapped with those guys on the floor.
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Winslow as a 75% FT shooter would have a higher offensive rating than Okafor. Assuming Winslow gets his head straight from the line, Okafor will be the least efficient starter in the big lineup at their current usage rates, with Tyus and Cook much higher. But I agree that K can't change what they do on offense. His hands are tied this season to not doing what's best for team success due to recruiting perception.
rome8180
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I have a lot more faith in Okafor improving from the line than Winslow. I've actually seen Okafor make midrange shots. And his touch is much better.
I just don't think it's possible to look at efficiency and usage in a vacuum. A player's opportunities and efficiency depend so much on the players around them. Okafor creates a vortex of attention. You have to continue him at high usage to justify that attention.
I just don't think it's possible to look at efficiency and usage in a vacuum. A player's opportunities and efficiency depend so much on the players around them. Okafor creates a vortex of attention. You have to continue him at high usage to justify that attention.
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Okafor was a high 50s FT shooter for his entire career beginning in high school and including international competition. Winslow was mid-70s in that same sample.
You could use Okafor a little less and the guards a little more to maximize the efficiencies. 4-5% lower usage for an 8-10% increase by Okafor and 2-3% higher usage for a 3-4% decrease by each guard. Overall, not a huge increase in efficiency, but enough to make a 1-point difference in each game. Efficiency and usage are on a sliding curve that isn't linear, and we're not maximizing the overall team efficiency running the Melo offense with Okafor.
You could use Okafor a little less and the guards a little more to maximize the efficiencies. 4-5% lower usage for an 8-10% increase by Okafor and 2-3% higher usage for a 3-4% decrease by each guard. Overall, not a huge increase in efficiency, but enough to make a 1-point difference in each game. Efficiency and usage are on a sliding curve that isn't linear, and we're not maximizing the overall team efficiency running the Melo offense with Okafor.
deepdarkblue
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You could reduce Okafor's usage by getting him to play defense, which would bring some foul calls that would occasionally put him on the bench. I think that would be the perfect solution.
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A big problem with the argument that we need to use Okafor for the other players to be as good as they have been is that Duke has been better in ACC play with Okafor not on the court at all.
Here are Duke's plus minus stats in ACC play:
http://www.scacchoops.com/TempoBasedSta ... =1&Season=
He's the only one who's negative. I don't think plus minus is reliable, but he's the only one who has been hurting the team in ACC play according to this stat? And it's not because of his defense - on every stat site, Okafor is one of Duke's most valuable defenders, full season and ACC.
Here are Duke's plus minus stats in ACC play:
http://www.scacchoops.com/TempoBasedSta ... =1&Season=
He's the only one who's negative. I don't think plus minus is reliable, but he's the only one who has been hurting the team in ACC play according to this stat? And it's not because of his defense - on every stat site, Okafor is one of Duke's most valuable defenders, full season and ACC.
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Melo knows. A team with both him and Okafor would be completely unwatchable and basically be tanking. The NBA team that drafts Okafor is trying to be worse for a few seasons, which is why he'd be a "good" fit for the Sixers. Roll out PG MCW, SG Wroten, SF Okafor, PF Embiid, C Noel and go 7-75.
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torontoduke
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Embiid should be the small forward - he demonstrated his willingness to shoot 3s against Duke
physicsfactor
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No game thread or prediction thread for a game that starts in an hour? Careful looking past opponents, guys. I just hope the team doesn't approach this game with a similar attitude.
torontoduke
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Going to Tallahassee in 48-hours sucks. Usually have trouble in that joint.
DurhamSon
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Every single non-unc game left on our schedule is markedly worse than the three teams we already lost to.
Time for the team to learn not to fuck up the pesky opponents playing with something to prove, since we already know they can care against a good team.
Time for the team to learn not to fuck up the pesky opponents playing with something to prove, since we already know they can care against a good team.
StopThePumpFakesShav
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For a number of years, we've been poking fun at K for saying his team is gonna "run run run" and then not doing it, especially in conference play. This year, Duke's pace is 60th in the nation. Since 2009, it's only been ranked higher once (in 2011, when Duke finished 51st). We usually prefer fast teams because (i) it's logical to want to increase possessions when you have a talent advantage and (ii) it's more fun.
But when you look at the games in which Duke has played best, maybe Duke should walk, walk, walk.
Duke is averaging 67.5 poss per game, although in ACC play it's at around 66 (lot of slow teams in the conference).
Duke's played 7 games this year at 70 poss or more. The results are as follows (I don't have the retroactive Kenpom data so let's go with a known Vegas spread, rounded to a whole #, as a close comparable):
Fairfield (74 poss)- 50 point win (Spread was Duke -32)--- +18
Army (72 poss)- 20 point win (Duke -25)--- -5
Elon (73 poss)- 13 point win (Duke -33)--- -20
Toledo (70 poss)- 17 point win (Duke -21)--- -4
Wake (72 poss)- 8 point win (Duke -16)--- -8 (this game was tied with like 4 min left IIRC)
NC State (70 poss)- 12 point loss (Duke -9)--- -21
Miami (74 poss)- 16 point loss (Duke -16)--- -32
*
Now, the 7 slowest games of the season, for comparative purposes:
Stanford (64 poss)- 11 point win (Duke -10)--- +1
Wisconsin (62 poss)- 10 point win (Wisc - 4)--- +14
Wofford (64 poss)- 29 point win (Duke -22)--- +7 (but worth noting that the first half was bad, and it was approx. a 2 possession game for most of the first half)
L'ville (60 poss)- 11 point win (LVille -3)--- +14
Pitt (62 poss)- 14 point win (Duke -15)--- -1
UVA (59 poss)**- 6 point win (UVA -5)--- +11
ND- Home (62 poss)- 30 point win (Duke -10)--- +20
I found this interesting. Could be some substantial cause and effect, given that zone tends to result in a slower pace, and zone has largely worked for Duke as compared to extended man (and was present for a number of the slower games). Some sample size issues as well (and the arbitrary nature of taking the 7 fastest and 7 slowest games). Or that Duke plays better against the best teams, and all of the best teams Duke has faced prefer a lower pace. But I like to think of it as some confirmation of the shittiness of our both our pressure D, which leads to drives early in the shot clock, and, perhaps most importantly, our god awful transition D. If the offense can be efficient in the half court (and the latter group here includes some of the most efficient performances of the year), then slower is better.
*St. John's is not on here, at 68 possessions. We covered that spread, but the eye test tells me that the first 32 minutes, after which we were down 10 points, were played at a pretty damn fast pace, probably on pace for well over 70 poss- was very helter skelter and they killed us. When we zoned and put MP3 in, the game slowed down substantially.
**I'm not sure this one credibly advances the thesis. It seemed like Duke did well early in the game when it tried to speed things up and take UVA out of their game. Seemed like the slowest part of this game was when UVA went on their run.
But when you look at the games in which Duke has played best, maybe Duke should walk, walk, walk.
Duke is averaging 67.5 poss per game, although in ACC play it's at around 66 (lot of slow teams in the conference).
Duke's played 7 games this year at 70 poss or more. The results are as follows (I don't have the retroactive Kenpom data so let's go with a known Vegas spread, rounded to a whole #, as a close comparable):
Fairfield (74 poss)- 50 point win (Spread was Duke -32)--- +18
Army (72 poss)- 20 point win (Duke -25)--- -5
Elon (73 poss)- 13 point win (Duke -33)--- -20
Toledo (70 poss)- 17 point win (Duke -21)--- -4
Wake (72 poss)- 8 point win (Duke -16)--- -8 (this game was tied with like 4 min left IIRC)
NC State (70 poss)- 12 point loss (Duke -9)--- -21
Miami (74 poss)- 16 point loss (Duke -16)--- -32
*
Now, the 7 slowest games of the season, for comparative purposes:
Stanford (64 poss)- 11 point win (Duke -10)--- +1
Wisconsin (62 poss)- 10 point win (Wisc - 4)--- +14
Wofford (64 poss)- 29 point win (Duke -22)--- +7 (but worth noting that the first half was bad, and it was approx. a 2 possession game for most of the first half)
L'ville (60 poss)- 11 point win (LVille -3)--- +14
Pitt (62 poss)- 14 point win (Duke -15)--- -1
UVA (59 poss)**- 6 point win (UVA -5)--- +11
ND- Home (62 poss)- 30 point win (Duke -10)--- +20
I found this interesting. Could be some substantial cause and effect, given that zone tends to result in a slower pace, and zone has largely worked for Duke as compared to extended man (and was present for a number of the slower games). Some sample size issues as well (and the arbitrary nature of taking the 7 fastest and 7 slowest games). Or that Duke plays better against the best teams, and all of the best teams Duke has faced prefer a lower pace. But I like to think of it as some confirmation of the shittiness of our both our pressure D, which leads to drives early in the shot clock, and, perhaps most importantly, our god awful transition D. If the offense can be efficient in the half court (and the latter group here includes some of the most efficient performances of the year), then slower is better.
*St. John's is not on here, at 68 possessions. We covered that spread, but the eye test tells me that the first 32 minutes, after which we were down 10 points, were played at a pretty damn fast pace, probably on pace for well over 70 poss- was very helter skelter and they killed us. When we zoned and put MP3 in, the game slowed down substantially.
**I'm not sure this one credibly advances the thesis. It seemed like Duke did well early in the game when it tried to speed things up and take UVA out of their game. Seemed like the slowest part of this game was when UVA went on their run.
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