Duke-UNLV prediction thread

[rome8180]

25 years later, two titans meet again.

 

[rome8180]

Poll closes very early Saturday (late Friday night), so please try to get your votes in on time.

On another note, here are the latest standings. It's a heated race so far.

[ben][/ben]

 

[TS9]

Increased the degree of difficulty with the smaller increments.

Sounds like it'll be a packed house on Saturday.

 

[deepdarkblue]

I'm going full homer, probably for the rest of the season - or until the next vaguely described injury.

 

[rome8180]

Increased the degree of difficulty with the smaller increments.

Sounds like it'll be a packed house on Saturday.

I try to do smaller increments in the area of the expected spread. I don't have the spread for this game yet, but I am reasonably confident it will be between 11 and 20 points based on the teams' Kenpom ratings. Maybe I set it too low and Duke will be favored by more than 20?

The rationale for this is so that one range doesn't have a much higher value as a pick than others. If, for example, the line was Duke -15 and I had a range of 11-20, then everyone should just pick that.

 

[rome8180]

I'm going full homer, probably for the rest of the season - or until the next vaguely described injury.

You probably get the most value for your pick that way. I mean, 30 to infinity is a much wider range than 16-20.

 

[SeanMayTriedToEatMe]

Line should be around 19.

 

[rome8180]

I just squeaked in hopefully. I still don't know where or how on Sagarin I am supposed to get these predictive numbers, despite you explaining it to me.

 

[TS9]

http://sagarin.com/sports/cbsend.htm

Pretty sure he's referencing the blue column at the above link.

 

[rome8180]

Edit: It would help if I had read the text at the top. I get it now.

 

[rome8180]

I suspect Duke is actually better than their rating, due to the inclusion of new talent. Probably should have split up the 21-30 instead. Oh well.

 

[deepdarkblue]

I'm sort of operating under the assumption that K will give the freshmen as many minutes (and shots) as they can handle at this point.

 

[StopThePumpFakesShav]

Will Chase Jeter be rooting for his current team or his future team in this one ?

 

[bdotling]

Current team in a blowout ensuring that he will be able to play right away for his future team

 

[deepdarkblue]

K will play Jeter 15+ minutes, to insure that UNLV sees first hand how truly awful he can be.

 

[SeanMayTriedToEatMe]

Duke is a 20.5-point favorite. Tatum hype.

 

[rome8180]

I will not fuck up the point ranges in the future. Sorry to anyone who voted 16-20 or 11-15, including myself.

 

[DrKlahn]

What happened to Vegas? Why are they so terrible? It looks like they are also playing a bunch of seniors and juniors, so it's not like they're building towards something. Those guys will all be gone by the time Chase is eligible to play there.

 

[SeanMayTriedToEatMe]

Line has moved to 22.5.

Allen near 100%? K angry over Brey comments? Tatum making tons of 3s in practice? Just irrational hype for a near fully formed Duke, probably.

 

[SeanMayTriedToEatMe]

UNLV is a mess on paper. There is nothing I can point to as an outstanding trait for the team.

Duke removed Derryck Thornton and Chase Jeter from the state's talent pool, and UNLV still couldn't muster a decent lineup. Disgusting.