Duke-UNLV prediction thread

[SeanMayTriedToEatMe]

Duke win probability was no higher than 10% when down 5 with ball before Hurley's 3 with around 2 minutes left. However, 10% may have been higher than the Duke win probability at tipoff.

Little did we know the end scene would portend America 25 years later - a bunch of rich white kids and their old white fans celebrating while poor black people quickly realized everything they had fought for, being on the mountaintop for an extended period, was just taken back from them. So it goes. Duke 1991. Trump 2016. Alex O'Connell 2041.

 

[DurhamSon]

I wonder if that -22.5 takes into account the hometown pity minutes that Jeter will receive so as not to humiliate him in front of his friends and family

 

[deepdarkblue]

Line has moved to 22.5.

Allen near 100%? K angry over Brey comments? Tatum making tons of 3s in practice? Just irrational hype for a near fully formed Duke, probably.

They just realized K is going to unleash the Jeter on UNLV.

 

[torontoduke]

I'm on this ice on this board, so I'll refrain from making Jeter predictions.

 

[rome8180]

I wonder if that -22.5 takes into account the hometown pity minutes that Jeter will receive so as not to humiliate him in front of his friends and family

I say he'll get the start and a post-up on the first play. 30% chance he hits the rim on the attempt.

 

[SeanMayTriedToEatMe]

Line has moved up to 24. Giles to dunk from foul line during warmups I guess.

 

[DukeCrow]

Duke 21-30 if it's not too late.
If it is, no worries.

Update: Nevermind 8-)

 

[DurhamSon]

Win for SMTTEM and the other homers.

 

[deepdarkblue]

Homers ftw.

 

[torontoduke]

That was savage.

 

[rome8180]

My first day of work was today and I had to miss this one. Bummed, but eager to watch the replay. I feel comfortable saying we're the greatest team ever.

 

[ZackM]

Good work on the margins.

 

[SeanMayTriedToEatMe]

 

[rome8180]

Good work on the margins.

Hey, in my defense...Ah, who cares.

 

[SeanMayTriedToEatMe]

Expecting next spread to be mid to high 20s. People are going to be scared to bet against Duke only to see their money gone immediately with demoralizing dunks.

 

[rome8180]

Tenn State is actually better on paper than UNLV (and probably better in reality). I hear they played NC State very tight. It looks like Sagarin would predict around 23.5 taking homecourt into account. If it's like last time, I think you'll be right. We'll probably see a spread several points higher than that. Also, Kenpom has the gap between Duke and Tenn State as slightly wider than Sagarin does.

 

[SeanMayTriedToEatMe]

Giles taking every Jeter minute and, if Bolden still sucks, every Bolden minute is worth about 2 points. That's assuming Giles is a top 100 caliber freshman right away with no time to ease into things. Jeter is around top 500 caliber and Bolden currently is about the same.