SeanMayTriedToEatMe said:
Court awareness, the ability to make the right decisions on the floor. 90% of the game is in the player's head.
Player Jahlil Okafor
- Thread starter NCCUknow
- Start date
Court awareness, the ability to make the right decisions on the floor. 90% of the game is in the player's head.
The best examples anyone can think of for why K would play Okafor so much and hardly ever play Plumlee are these:
Brian Zoubek
Mitch McGary
I get the upside argument, but come on.
Zoubek was the very definition of a low maintenance center who improved an offense by letting the guards take over and fetching their rebounds to pass back out to them, while playing great defense on the other end.
Freshman March/April-version McGary was more Okafor-like than Zoubek, but he was a lot closer to Plumlee than Okafor. He hit 28% usage (Okafor's number) 3 times in 11 March/April games and finished with 22% usage. Senior Zoubek was at 18%.
Plumlee becoming incapable of playing defense, setting picks and rebounding when bumped up to 20 minutes instead of the usual 7.5 in ACC play (8.9 full schedule) is laughable.
On offense, the choice is not really between Okafor and Plumlee. The choice is between Okafor and Tyus/Cook, since Okafor seems incapable of lowering himself to play the garbage guy role instead of the Shaq role. We have two elite ball-handling guards who are top 20 in the nation in individual offensive efficiency who are reduced to being sub-20% usage players. That's insane.
On defense, the choice is directly between Okafor and Plumlee, and that choice is extremely simple.
Brian Zoubek
Mitch McGary
I get the upside argument, but come on.
Zoubek was the very definition of a low maintenance center who improved an offense by letting the guards take over and fetching their rebounds to pass back out to them, while playing great defense on the other end.
Freshman March/April-version McGary was more Okafor-like than Zoubek, but he was a lot closer to Plumlee than Okafor. He hit 28% usage (Okafor's number) 3 times in 11 March/April games and finished with 22% usage. Senior Zoubek was at 18%.
Plumlee becoming incapable of playing defense, setting picks and rebounding when bumped up to 20 minutes instead of the usual 7.5 in ACC play (8.9 full schedule) is laughable.
On offense, the choice is not really between Okafor and Plumlee. The choice is between Okafor and Tyus/Cook, since Okafor seems incapable of lowering himself to play the garbage guy role instead of the Shaq role. We have two elite ball-handling guards who are top 20 in the nation in individual offensive efficiency who are reduced to being sub-20% usage players. That's insane.
On defense, the choice is directly between Okafor and Plumlee, and that choice is extremely simple.
LastHearth said:
This is exactly why Plumlee has been better for the team than Okafor this season. I don't even know what you're arguing for anymore.
Yeah, if Marshall Plumlee does something negative on the court, it's almost always because he's just not that talented, and rarely because he does something wrong. It was different with his brothers, who made a lot of poor decisions but were able to fall back on their great athleticism.
SeanMayTriedToEatMe said:
You are assuming that Cook and Jones can maintain their offensive efficiency with Plumlee in there for sustained period of time. Okafor's presence on the floor creates space for them because the opposition have to constant worry about double teaming him. With Plumlee in there the other players have to work much harder to get their shots, and that energy exertion could hurt them for defensive possessions and later on in the game.
SeanMayTriedToEatMe said:
That K generally knows what he's doing, when in doubt, assume he has good rational reasons for doing what he does.
"The good rational reason" is that he'd be lambasted for not playing a NPOY candidate and the #1 draft pick 30+ minutes a game.
And your argument that Jones and Cook would become less efficient with Plumlee doesn't hold water considering the team has been better with Plumlee on the floor (and at least one of Cook and Jones were playing most of that time).
And your argument that Jones and Cook would become less efficient with Plumlee doesn't hold water considering the team has been better with Plumlee on the floor (and at least one of Cook and Jones were playing most of that time).
If I still went on TDD, I imagine I would see an alarming number of posters pointing to that article and saying OMG HE'S COMING BACK!!!!1!
LastHearth said:
Again, no one on this board assumes stupid things like this. You are the only one assuming the people on this board are complete morons like on TDD. You don't need to do that here. I assume Tyus and Cook will suffer a dip in efficiency with more usage, but I am saying the benefits outweigh that negative, not "Tyus and Cook can completely maintain their efficiency and 100% of everything on the court will be better." This is all a balance of pros and cons, not one thing being better in every possible way than another. I assume Tyus and Cook will suffer at least somewhat on defense if they have to work harder on offense, but I am saying Plumlee's excellent defense over Okafor's complete lack of defense on several possessions would more than make up for that, especially if part of Okafor's problem is his own exertion on offense.
There is no stat out there to indicate Tyus and Cook play worse with Plumlee in the game, only stats that indicate the entire team plays better with Plumlee in the game.
You can converse with people here like they have a basic human level of intelligence, and assume we do not make the dumbest assumptions in the world. It's a lot easier to do that, since it saves time on everyone's end to not have to explain things like we are all 5 years old.
LastHearth said:
The good rational reason is the upside point with Okafor at the beginning of this season compared with Plumlee at the beginning of this season. Playing Okafor a lot to get him up to speed and reach his ceiling for this season, even if it is only this season at Duke, makes a lot of sense. I'm not arguing against this point or how K has been using Okafor throughout the early and middle parts of this season.
It's mid-February now. There's one month left before the entire point of every Duke basketball season begins. There's not much more ceiling to explore for Duke's purposes, and the decisionmaking process should have changed by now, especially in the FSU game that just happened this week. The decision to use some zone against terrible 3pt shooting teams should have been made years ago, before Duke became a terrible (by Duke standards) defensive team for so many seasons running, but K only started using zone when it became absolutely impossible for anyone to ignore the fact that the positives outweighed the negatives. Larranaga literally needed to send him the message, "we didn't run an offense against Duke - we just drove on Duke," for K to make the proper change. K's coaching tactics are not going to be above any kind of questioning, especially when he has essentially admitted a huge mistake in the past by correcting it this season.
At some point, under a great NBA coach, with 82 games a year and basketball as a full time job, Okafor will become a great overall player, possibly a hall of fame player. That's why he'll go #1 overall despite any numbers saying players like Towns and Russell are better right now, and I do honestly think any NBA team would be pretty dumb to take anyone else #1. This is not that time, and this is not that Okafor, though. K can at least try to play Plumlee 15-20 minutes and see what happens, while playing Okafor a very typical 25 minutes for a big man. Is at least trying that with one month left before the Tournament not a good rational idea?
If anything,giving Plumlee more minutes in ACC play could prepare him better for the Tournament if something (injury, foul trouble) happens to Okafor. At this point, the ONLY reason not to play Plumlee is if he is completely unplayable, and the numbers indicate otherwise.
This just feels like K being a stubborn old fool.
This just feels like K being a stubborn old fool.
SeanMayTriedToEatMe said:
This is the point of fundamental disagreement we have. The light turning on really can happen at any time. There is no reason why because it's mid-February it can't turn on. A lot of people said it would never happen with Zoubek, because "if it hasn't happened half-way through your senior year, it's not going to happen." Okafor's ceiling is so high, that if there is a chance, you have to hold out for that chance, unless you're facing elimination.
Again, Zoubek is the worst example you can use for that point. Zoubek had great rate numbers just like Plumlee, was effective by the eye test as a garbage guy on offense, rebounder and defender before the Maryland game. The thing that changed for Zoubek was more playing time, which was the result of K's light going on in realizing what he potentially had in Zoubek that season and Zoubek realizing he needed to foul less in those greater minutes to stay on the floor.
Zoubek is best example for playing Plumlee more. I don't know why you keep using him as an argument for Okafor. It's much more likely for Plumlee to give us what Zoubek did due to K finally getting it this season than Okafor becoming a high efficiency garbage guy on offense who plays hard on defense every possession for 30+ minutes. And why even hold out hope for that when Plumlee is so much better at that role than Okafor anyway? We hope Okafor can become the top 10 overall player that Plumlee is already?
I mean, think about what's being said here: "Look at senior Brian Zoubek. That could happen for Jahlil Okafor but not senior Marshall Plumlee."
Zoubek is best example for playing Plumlee more. I don't know why you keep using him as an argument for Okafor. It's much more likely for Plumlee to give us what Zoubek did due to K finally getting it this season than Okafor becoming a high efficiency garbage guy on offense who plays hard on defense every possession for 30+ minutes. And why even hold out hope for that when Plumlee is so much better at that role than Okafor anyway? We hope Okafor can become the top 10 overall player that Plumlee is already?
I mean, think about what's being said here: "Look at senior Brian Zoubek. That could happen for Jahlil Okafor but not senior Marshall Plumlee."
Yes, Plumlee could get better too. But all things considered, a freshmen is more likely to improve than the senior, plus, you have the huge factor of the ceiling for Plumplee and the ceiling for Okafor being not on the same level. Plumlee could get a bit better, Okafor could jump into another stratosphere.
If the goal is to win the championship, you prepare your team for the chance to reach the highest ceiling. The calculation is different once you get into elimination play, because surviving the present is more important at the point. Until then, I would do what K doing, which is everything I can to see if I can Okafor into the next gear.
If the goal is to win the championship, you prepare your team for the chance to reach the highest ceiling. The calculation is different once you get into elimination play, because surviving the present is more important at the point. Until then, I would do what K doing, which is everything I can to see if I can Okafor into the next gear.
I agree, so I think this is a pretty good stopping point. I think all we disagree on fundamentally is our definition of what Okafor's next gear should be. I believe Duke will reach its ceiling as a team when Okafor decides to focus more of his energy on defense and let the guards do more on offense. That's his top gear for me, which leads to the problem I have with him not already being at that point. He can be the 2nd most valuable freshman big man of the past decade if he simply chooses to be (far behind Anthony Davis but about the same level as Greg Oden overall). He's already much better than any other big man at catching and finishing. It's just a matter of conceding mentally that Tyus and Cook should be running the offense and that he should be cleaning up their misses, getting open off the ball for dunks, and putting all his energy into protecting the rim. If K is trying to get him to realize this by playing him as much as possible, so that it's Okafor's decision and K doesn't need to take responsibility for using that approach with the #1 overall pick, then I'm all for it.
There will be matchups where Okafor's ability to foul a particular big man out as the focus of the offense will be extremely valuable, like against Syracuse and UConn. Those matchups are rare, though.
There will be matchups where Okafor's ability to foul a particular big man out as the focus of the offense will be extremely valuable, like against Syracuse and UConn. Those matchups are rare, though.
Aside from the turnovers tonight, two of which I believe were due to a combination of bad passes and shoves in the back, he showed incredible hands again. I just can't recall the last time I saw hands like that from a center in college, let alone a freshman. There's not even half a dozen centers in the NBA with hands like that.
He is almost guaranteed to score 12-15 points per game alone next year just from fast breaks, garbage buckets, and putbacks.
He is almost guaranteed to score 12-15 points per game alone next year just from fast breaks, garbage buckets, and putbacks.
I think every NBA front office and most NBA-only fans understand what Okafor is all about as a prospect. It's only the college people who are taking a while to figure it out.
Big Country Reeves as a sophomore at OK State: 33 minutes, 62% FG, 65% FT, 20 points, 10 rebounds, 1.3 blocks, 1.2 assists, 2.4 turnovers, 3.1 fouls.
Okafor: 31 minutes, 67% FG, 57% FT, 18 points, 9 rebounds, 1.5 blocks, 1.3 assists, 2.6 turnovers, 2.3 fouls.
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