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Player Jahlil Okafor

I think there is also more value to Okafor when the other team has one great big as opposed to a group of bigs of fairly equal ability, because you try to use the early Okafor touches to get the opposing great big into foul trouble, and live with the possibility of TOs and missed FTs.

But if you have a large number of interchangeable bigs who can afford to be aggressive with Okafor, and against whom drawing fouls isn't going to win you the game (Kentucky?), you're getting less out of him on that front than you may be if you're trying to put that one great big guy on the bench or at least limit his aggressiveness for an extended period (maybe Wisconsin/Kaminsky?).
 



Getting that narrative in the head of the seeding committee. Rutgers loss means nothing
 
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I think it's pretty clear that Oakfor is not NPOY, so why get into a fight over nothing?
 
rhfarmer said:
I think it's pretty clear that Oakfor is not NPOY, so why get into a fight over nothing?
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I'm not even mad, I'm impressed. What a great take.
 


Hope you all enjoyed the one game of what Duke basketball 2014-15 could've been.
 
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The showcasing of Okafor is probably hurting his stock, though there was no way for Duke to help his stock, only to keep it the same. Could this lead to Okafor being fine with a reduced role on offense and putting more energy into defense?

Nope.
 
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The Okafor Theory

We should probably have our own discussion on this topic.

And once again, thanks to SM for putting this together. Really amazing stuff.
 
It pretty much confirms what we see with our eyes. The mass public are fooled by his 30/9 statline not realizing that was the bare minimum he needed to put up for us to win. Most games he won't be that effective
 
I'd like to explore this theory but I will list some objections.

In the case of our offensive efficiency being high without him. Are you taking into account the fact that many of the offensive possession without Okafor are simply late game foul situations, where you'd expect us to have an PPP of around 1.7-1.8 (Cook and Jones' FT numbers), and Okafor not being on the floor because of his bad FT% during those situations.
 
That's a good question, LastHearth.

BC
Duke wasn't shooting intentional foul FTs at the end of this blowout.

Wake
Cook went 4-4 FT over 2 possessions near the end, with Okafor on the bench. I don't know if these were intentional, but I will assume they were.

NC State
No concern.

Miami
No concern.

Louisville
Okafor was subbed in and out a lot at the end. It didn't hurt his on court vs off court ppp numbers, may have actually helped, looking at the play by play: http://statsheet.com/mcb/games/2015/01/ ... ay_by_play

ND 1
Duke wasn't shooting intentional foul FTs at the end of this loss.

Virginia
Duke wasn't shooting intentional foul FTs, with Cook's 3 and Tyus' 3 ending the scoring.

GT
Okafor didn't go out until 34 seconds left. After that, Winslow went 1-2 FT and Cook went 2-2 FT in 2 total possessions. I will again assume these were intentional foul FTs.

ND 2
Duke wasn't shooting intentional foul FTs in this blowout.

FSU
Cook went 2-2 FT while Okafor was out during one of his short stints at the end of this game. I will again assume that was an intentional foul situation.

Syracuse 1
Cook went 2-2 FT while Okafor was out at the very end. Same assumption.

UNC 1
Okafor played the entire 2nd half and OT.

VT
Like the Lousville game, lots of in and out for Okafor in the end, but it looks like it actually helped his on court vs off court ppp numbers: http://statsheet.com/mcb/games/2015/02/ ... ay_by_play

Pitt
Amile of all people went 2-2 FT on what looks like it was an intentional foul with Okafor off the court. Tyus went 1-2 FT. Total 2 possessions.

To simplify this, let's be generous to Okafor and take out all of the intentional foul FT possessions in the questionable games noted above with Okafor off the court, while not doing the same for Okafor on court intentional foul FT possessions.

That's 8 possessions, 14 points.

Lowers Duke's offensive ppp with Okafor off court from 1.300 to 1.284. No impact on the broader observations, though maybe 1.284 is psychologically less impressive than big round 1.300.
 
Hey guys,

First post here. I had been a viewer for years and finally decided to join so I could get in on "The Okafor Theory" discussion. The Clemson game certainly was an eye-opener and backed up the opinions of those who felt Okafor should see less playing time. I'm definitely in that camp as well. Not that the decrease should be anything drastic but 4-6 minutes or so.

I only had a few notes on the numbers (completed my undergrad in Statistics so I felt obligated):

- The late game free throw scenarios, which was covered above.
- I think it would be fair to completely rule out his numbers post-ankle injury against UNC, as he clearly was not playing 100%. This would hardly change the overall numbers, given the sample size, but it would maybe do him a little more justice.
- There's multiple possessions where Jahlil has gotten a look in the post, missed, and then immediately collected his offensive rebound for the putback. In terms of points per possession, this would equate to 1 (2 points in 2 possessions), but most people would view this as one possession, as the ball was never reset. Just food for thought as I'm sure counting these instances as 1 possession instead of 2 could have a big impact.
- I went into this thinking it was largely due to poor free throw shooting, but that wound up being untrue. In fact, according to my math, he could be 100% from the line this season and the offense still wouldn't reach 1.3 PPP (or 1.284, as you alluded to above). Granted, this didn't account for missing the front-ends of one-and-one's, or take into account any of the other points I made above.
- Did you happen to compile the team three-point shooting statistics with Okafor on and off? I was interested to know how close they were.

Overall it was a great read and I'm sure those who weren't already aware of the fact found it very eye-opening. Nicely done.
 
Hi, CMC. Welcome to the show. I hope you have a finely-tuned sarcasm meter, you'll need it here.
 
cmccloskey15 said:
- There's multiple possessions where Jahlil has gotten a look in the post, missed, and then immediately collected his offensive rebound for the putback. In terms of points per possession, this would equate to 1 (2 points in 2 possessions), but most people would view this as one possession, as the ball was never reset. Just food for thought as I'm sure counting these instances as 1 possession instead of 2 could have a big impact.
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An offensive rebound does not result in a new possession, it is an extension of the current possession. So he does indeed get credit for 2 points in 1 possession.
 
ZackM said:
cmccloskey15 said:
- There's multiple possessions where Jahlil has gotten a look in the post, missed, and then immediately collected his offensive rebound for the putback. In terms of points per possession, this would equate to 1 (2 points in 2 possessions), but most people would view this as one possession, as the ball was never reset. Just food for thought as I'm sure counting these instances as 1 possession instead of 2 could have a big impact.
Click to expand...

An offensive rebound does not result in a new possession, it is an extension of the current possession. So he does indeed get credit for 2 points in 1 possession.
Click to expand...

CMC -- in case you ever wondered how UK has such an efficient offense on kenpom, that's the reason.

Oh, and welcome. Please feel free to post anytime.
 
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