NC State at Duke - Thu, Feb 7, 9:00pm ACCN/ESPN3

[SeanMayTriedToEatMe]

Is Amile ready?

Games the ESPN networks are showing instead of this one:

ESPN: Washington vs UCLA
ESPN2: Missouri vs Texas A&M
ESPNU: Belmont vs Murray State

 

[rome8180]

ESPN's coverage of us this year has been abysmal.

Brown will be back of course. But not until some press release assuring us he'll be out, therefore messing up the team's gameplan to blitz Lewis every time he touches the ball.

 

[torontoduke]

No way Brown misses this one. They will give him deer antler spray or whatever is necessary to bring him back. Not saying this will continue in the Thursday game, but I felt Lewis played ok lastnight vs the U.

Stay out of foul trouble Amile

Go Duke

 

[physicsfactor]

Will Leslie score 30? We need to get their bigs in foul trouble because Mason isn't stopping anyone.

 

[ChibCU]

Mason will have 3 fouls in the first half. Play a total of 18 minutes in the game and only 8 of those minutes will he challenge shots on defense.

 

[Topher]

Player A:

PP40: 13.6
TS%: 52.6
RPG: 4.1
AST%: 32.6
Stl%: 2.8
TO%: 18.1

Player B:

PP40: 15.3
TS%: 52.7
RPG: 4.3
AST%: 35.5
Stl%: 3.6
TO%: 22.9

Golly, who could these players be?

 

[aiw]

I've been told that Lorenzo Brown is the best ever, so you must have made up those numbers.

 

[SeanMayTriedToEatMe]

Here's one for ACC games only (to balance the schedule strengths):

Player A

Possession% = 17.1
Offensive Rating = 126.1
True Shooting% = 57.0
FTA/FGA = .414
Offensive Rebound% = 14.1
Defensive Rebound% = 14.7
Assist/Turnover = 1.0
Steal% = 2.2
Block% = 4.8

Player B

Possession% = 25.4
Offensive Rating = 96.6
True Shooting% = 55.0
FTA/FGA = .616
Offensive Rebound% = 4.7
Defensive Rebound% = 19.3
Assist/Turnover = 0.3
Steal% = 1.1
Block% = 2.4

Spoiler

A = Amile Jefferson, B = CJ Leslie. Is Amile Jefferson already a 1st team All-ACC quality offensive player? It's a lot like Quinn Cook's situation last season, with suspect defense tying K's hands in terms of giving him the full-time keys to the position. In this case, we need Amile to be set free because the other options simply aren't good enough to be playing 30+ minutes in this big a game.

 

[SeanMayTriedToEatMe]

Here are Hairston's ACC stats, to put closure on this:

Possession% = 11.8
Offensive Rating = 94.9
True Shooting% = 47.0
FTA/FGA = .238
Offensive Rebound% = 7.0
Defensive Rebound% = 7.3
Assist/Turnover = 0.6
Steal% = 0.9
Block% = 2.2

Amile Jefferson defensive rating for all games = 91.1 (good)
Ryan Kelly defensive rating for all games = 92.1 (worse than Amile)
Josh Hairston defensive rating for all games = 96.4 (worst)

Defensive rating isn't a great stat, but it's all we have aside from the Synergy Sports nuggets the media will occasionally throw our way. On paper, the Jefferson/Hairston situation is becoming worse than Roy's irrational hatred of Brice Johnson. Team defense, communication and intangibles are all very important, but at what point of extreme contrast does offense, rebounding, passing, individual defense and everything else outweigh them?

 

[aiw]

Amile played 29 minutes in the last game. Amile plays way more than Hairston when he is not in foul trouble.

MPG since Kelly out

 

[ChibCU]

I did not realize he fouled out in 12 minutes. Ouch.

 

[SeanMayTriedToEatMe]

Yeah I lost my mind for a moment and forgot that our big man rotation right now is only 3 guys and 1 of them is Hairston. Subconsciously wanted to avoid that realization. I guess the only thing to nitpick about K's rotation is that maybe Jefferson could play 35 minutes instead of the 25ish he tends to get. Despite the first impressions from the first NC State game, Jefferson is only averaging 5 fouls per 40, so he should be able to go almost the entire game. 10 extra minutes of him instead of Hairston, on paper, should be like a 2-point difference.

 

[ChibCU]

Looking back now, I am so thankful that Amile chose us over State. Could you imagine having to play Marshall extended minutes?

 

[rome8180]

I think you might want to dig a little deeper on the defensive stuff though. I feel like Mason too often gets left in unreasonable situations with Amile out there. I may be wrong, but I don't notice it as much with Hairston. Amile's one-on-one defense and shotblocking seem better, but Hairston seems to be a better positional defender.

 

[aiw]

Looking back now, I am so thankful that Amile chose us over State. Could you imagine having to play Marshall extended minutes?

AJSD

 

[rome8180]

Jefferson was a huge last minute coup. So far the 2012 class looks to have panned out significantly better than the 2011 class. Cook is great, but Austin is gone and the jury is out on Marshall and Murphy. (Yes, I'm counting them as part of the previous class.)

 

[SeanMayTriedToEatMe]

There are pseudo-intangible things that Hairston adds over Jefferson, like much better screens and better team/help defense (based on the eye test), but there is no way I can imagine those things outweighing everything else. A lot of Mason's looking bad on defense over the past few games seem to be his own fault and his understanding that he can't afford to foul out. This all jives with Ryan Kelly making a 4-5 point difference when he comes back. Him over Jefferson isn't that huge, but just getting Hairston's 15 minutes out of the picture and replacing them with Kelly is enormous. When/if Kelly comes back, the rotation will be close to ideal, with 5 clear starters (Cook, Curry, Sulaimon, Kelly, Mason), 2 bench guys to give about 15-20 minutes for every game (Thornton, Jefferson), an emergency big for foul problems (Hairston) and a super-emergency big for weird matchups and extreme foul problems (Marshall).

 

[rome8180]

Poor Murphy.

 

[DurhamSon]

Jefferson as absolutely freakin' enormous. This year and going forward. Fuck, imagine Josh having to play beyond his means for 28 minutes a game right now, or Marshall playing center for 30+ next year.

 

[marleyboy4945]

I'm really starting to think we go Cook Sheed Hood Parker Jefferson next year.