Pittsburgh and North Carolina

[bdotling]

Yeah I generally had no problem with him vs Pitt and I am a Tatum hater

 

[torontoduke]

Tatum has to draw some fouls on Hicks Thurs night. Bring him outside and drive on him. Not sure how JT can handle Hicks on the other end of the floor...need some effective ball denial.

 

[SeanMayTriedToEatMe]

Brief history of UNC's offensive rebounding against Duke, with then-current kenpom overall rankings:

2016
11 Duke at 7 UNC - 44% UNC OReb - W by 1
17 Duke vs 5 UNC - 56% UNC OReb - L by 4

2015
8 Duke vs 16 UNC - 37% UNC OReb - W by 2 (OT)
8 Duke at 14 UNC - 38% UNC OReb - W by 7

2014
2 Duke at 26 UNC - 44% UNC OReb - L by 8
8 Duke vs 23 UNC - 25% UNC OReb - W by 12

2013
6 Duke vs 46 UNC - 43% UNC OReb - W by 5
6 Duke at 26 UNC - 44% UNC OReb - W by 16

Not much to be concluded from this. In seasons like this one, when the two teams are close in overall quality, it seems Duke should have a good chance if they keep UNC under 40% offensive rebounding.

 

[SeanMayTriedToEatMe]

3pt shooting in Duke/UNC games:

2016
11 Duke at 7 UNC - Duke 7-19 (37%), UNC 1-13 (8%) - W by 1
17 Duke vs 5 UNC - Duke 13-34 (38%), UNC 4-23 (17%) - L by 4

2015
8 Duke vs 16 UNC - Duke 10-16 (63%), UNC 2-10 (20%) - W by 2 (OT)
8 Duke at 14 UNC - Duke 9-25 (36%), UNC 8-16 (50%) - W by 7

2014
2 Duke at 26 UNC - Duke 5-22 (23%), UNC 2-9 (22%) - L by 8
8 Duke vs 23 UNC - Duke 8-23 (35%), UNC 5-12 (42%) - W by 12

2013
6 Duke vs 46 UNC - Duke 6-16 (38%), UNC 5-18 (28%) - W by 5
6 Duke at 26 UNC - Duke 5-15 (33%), UNC 1-14 (7%) - W by 16

Duke has only shot above 40% from 3 once in the last 8 meetings.

UNC has shot above 40% from 3 twice in the last 8 meetings and has shot under 30% the other 6 times.

 

[SeanMayTriedToEatMe]

 

[SeanMayTriedToEatMe]

 

[SeanMayTriedToEatMe]

 

[aiw]

I'm not ready for this.

 

[rome8180]

God, recent years in the rivalry really have been miserable for UNC fans.

2010 - get blown out 82-50; watch Duke win title
2011- up 14 at the half, but still lose
2012 - blow a 10 point lead in two minutes; have one of the most hated Duke players ever hit a buzzer beater
2013 - get swept, the second game not even being competitive
2014 - sort of okay
2015 - get swept after leading in both games, including leading by 7 with just a couple minutes left in the first game
2016 - after leading the entire game, somehow lose to a Duke team with five players, one of them being Derryck Thornton

We need Grayson to hit a buzzer beater in one of the games this year, preferably after a controversial no call tripping incident. It would be good if it happened tomorrow, but it would be almost better if it happened at UNC.

 

[physicsfactor]

We need Grayson to hit a buzzer beater in one of the games this year, preferably after a controversial no call tripping incident. It would be good if it happened tomorrow, but it would be almost better if it happened at UNC.

I don't know. Duke would never get another call all season. It would be better for that to happen deep in the tournament. But Duke won't make it that far, so perhaps you're right about @UNC being the perfect time.

 

[SeanMayTriedToEatMe]

I envision Tatum taking the shot for Duke, down 2 with last possession. It will be a 30% foot-on-the-line midrange jumper to force a 50% OT. Kennard will be open on the wing for a 50% 3 that would win the game. Tatum will believe a 15% chance to win is better than 50% because the shot is closer to the basket. The coaches will compliment his courage after the game. None of us will be alive to hear it.

 

[StopThePumpFakesShav]

I envision Tatum taking the shot for Duke, down 2 with last possession. It will be a 30% foot-on-the-line midrange jumper to force a 50% OT. Kennard will be open on the wing for a 50% 3 that would win the game. Tatum will believe a 15% chance to win is better than 50% because the shot is closer to the basket. The coaches will compliment his courage after the game. None of us will be alive to hear it.

Yeah, if this happens exactly as described, we all should gather together and kill ourselves, Heaven's Gate style.

 

[SeanMayTriedToEatMe]

A different take on UNC and 3pt shooting:



When you look at it as absolute change from year to year, it makes sense, but when you look at it relative to everyone else, they're still dinosaurs. #163 3pt attempt rate in 2002 (national median) was 32.1%. In 2010, #174 at the median was unchanged at 32.1%. Today, #175 at the median has ballooned to 36.1%, growing quickly, driven by smart people in high places in the NBA. Ironic, given what is going on in the world outside basketball. I'm surprised Gasaway took the view that he did, without considering relativity.

 

[StopThePumpFakesShav]

Yeah the attempt rate is still only #315 in the country. Only counter there though is that given they are #1 in Off rebounding percentage (and even stronger in this category than ever before), maybe they're taking more total shots than ever, and a lot of the shots off offensive rebounds tend to be near the basket. So it's possible that if you just look at first shot in a possession, that #315 ranking goes up. I don't have Insider so don't know if Gasaway made that point or not.

 

[deepdarkblue]

I envision Tatum taking the shot for Duke, down 2 with last possession. It will be a 30% foot-on-the-line midrange jumper to force a 50% OT. Kennard will be open on the wing for a 50% 3 that would win the game. Tatum will believe a 15% chance to win is better than 50% because the shot is closer to the basket. The coaches will compliment his courage after the game. None of us will be alive to hear it.

Sadly, this would be the least surprising scenario ever, followed by:

Duke is up by one with 10 seconds left, Duke's ball. Tatum drives and misses the shot. There may have been contact. While Tatum stands making bitchy faces at the ref for not making a call, UNC races to the other end of the court, where Tatum's man makes an uncontested layup as time expires.

 

[rhfarmer]

I would like to add to deepdark's scenario that Tatum's man is Luke Maye.

 

[torontoduke]

Even w/o Hicks, the Devils' effort on the boards was top drawer. Really impressed by that.

 

[DurhamSon]

So basically we won this game the only way we could have won. Oh well mean the season can't be a total loss.

Fuck that State game though.

 

[torontoduke]

That Wolfpack loss was rough. However, if the Devils win @ UVA and/or @ UNC this year I will never bitch about that State game for as long as I live.

 

[childress22]

IC says we've now won 26 of the last 39. Cool.