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Pomeroy

It's weird to me that the public data still only goes back to 2002. It's also weird to me that he has data going back to 1997 but only decided to release two more years. Presumably he will upload the the other three years later, but I don't see why he didn't just do it all at once.
 
It's weird how Kenpom always overestimated Duke's defense under K, and now has started us outside the top 20 defensively two years in a row. I don't get it.
 
The formula has a very steep dropoff for top 5 ish recruits versus other recruits. So we were getting a ton of credit when we had like 3 top ten recruits versus what we are bringing in. So that’s part of it.

Also I guess the full year efficiency numbers for someone like Proctor are being taken into account as one would expect. and the qualitative overlay that people are making on a soph jump based on the last part of his year is gonna show up in the human polls, not so much here.
 
Top 5-ish recruits aren't necessarily any good at defense though. So if that's why we were getting the bump, it was flawed. Also, we had multiple top 5 recruits last year and the defense started at like 35th or something.

It felt like he tweaked the algorithm in response to K-fense, after being wrong for the 100th year in a row, but he waited to do it until K was gone.
 
Gained a kenpom ACC win out of this game. Up to 16-4 (2 predicted losses to State and UNC)
 
So Kenpom started the season with us at 302nd in adjusted tempo. That was obviously a guess based on last year. Now we're up to 233rd. I assume the 302nd tempo is still baked into that number? Obviously, we're not playing fast. My eyes tell me that. But is there any way to calculate how fast we would have needed to play to rise 70 spots in three games? Assuming that's what's actually happening.
 
D fell to 30 on that monstrosity. O remained at 8. Team fell to 12, just ahead of UNC.
 
rome8180 said:
So Kenpom started the season with us at 302nd in adjusted tempo. That was obviously a guess based on last year. Now we're up to 233rd. I assume the 302nd tempo is still baked into that number? Obviously, we're not playing fast. My eyes tell me that. But is there any way to calculate how fast we would have needed to play to rise 70 spots in three games? Assuming that's what's actually happening.
Click to expand...
Torvik has the tempo for each game here, just to the right of the score: https://barttorvik.com/team.php?team=Duke&year=2024
 
Stupid we should be "punished" that much because a really bad team made a bunch of threes that were largely out of our control. I expect that to disappear into the noise as the season progresses tho
 
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Houston has crossed the mythical Bilas zone, joining the list of teams that are rated higher on Pomeroy than 2009 UNC. That list now totals I think something like eighteen teams in the span that Bilas still maintains UNC was "The last great team"
 
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