Pomeroy

[StopThePumpFakesShav]

It has to do with Duke being preseason #8 on Kenpom on defense (for some weird reason). As bad as we were last year, he really wiped the slate clean. Maybe too clean.

3/11 being based on preseason doesn't seem THAT horrible. I guess we'd be like, what, 25 if you disregard that?

I think we'll have to count on the defense just improving, which hopefully it will at a higher than normal rate, given the youth on this team. The numbers re: FT% luck are pretty encouraging. I believe we improved substantially at rebounding (although I'd guess at a higher rate offensively) as the year went on last year, so hopefully that's the one trend we can mimic from last year's team.

 

[childress22]

Our defense doesn't seem THAT good. Our offense does, though. I assume that the pre-season weights (and the weighting to lessen impact of blowouts) might be holding those numbers down a bit, too. No?

 

[childress22]

In our wins against MSU and Wisconsin we allowed 110 and 116 points/100poss, respectively. Those teams have good offenses, sure, but it also shows that we basically played them like an average defense would. Their current Pomeroy Offensive Ratings are 109.8 and 113.5.

 

[rome8180]

So what Coach K calls a "very good defensive team" is really just top 30 or something. That's the best he can muster these days.

 

[aiw]

You read that one article. Coach K is an "eye test" guy.

 

[rome8180]

Well, his eyes should watch the 2010 team if he wants to remember what good defense looks like.

(Oddly that team fell from #4 defensively to #8 just recently. Not sure what tweak Kenpom made to his ratings that caused that.)

 

[aiw]

Getting closer.

 

[StopThePumpFakesShav]

We should get a bump on defense shortly too. Wisconsin won 93-54 tonight in a game in which they were projected to win 68-54.

 

[rome8180]

Nah, blowouts don't count.

 

[rome8180]

BREAKING NEWS: UK NO LONGER GREATEST DEFENSE EVER

(But offense up to #2 after moving from 112 to 114).

 

[rome8180]

In more good news, our defense is now #14.

 

[StopThePumpFakesShav]

Wow I can't believe one game moved the needle that much on UK's D, given their other games.

 

[SeanMayTriedToEatMe]

More regression is coming, but also for Duke's offense.

 

[StopThePumpFakesShav]

Duke has benefited a bit on defense from some big blowouts by Wisconsin this week in which they played well offensively.

 

[aiw]

Gonzaga #2 on offense. Only 5.6 back.

 

[DurhamSon]

http://kenpom.com/blog/index.php/weblog ... ting_model


Nate James now is competing with this excel spread sheet algorithm, and based on the results so far, it looks like the Spread Sheet is running away with it




Edit:

Just checked our paige. We are tied with Kentucky with best chance for Ingram, lead for Dennis Smith, no chance at Tatum, and very little chance for Battle. One man class.

 

[torontoduke]

What a shitty game.

 

[Thain]

Yeah I hated watching it. The team actually looked like they didn't want to be playing Elon. That being said, Elon is full of a bunch of chippy bitches.

 

[aiw]

Offense fell nearly 1 point. D steady. Exactly what you would expect out of watching that game.

 

[DurhamSon]

FT defense now down to 343rd/351.


This is what happens when you neuter the crazies /s