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The Degenerates Thread

If someone scores first who was not offered in the first basket market when you places your bet, I believe they would void all your bets in that market.

That’s one of the more generous rules that is consistent across books, IIRC. However, it’s sometimes relevant that FanDuel and some other books count FTs as first baskets, while others don’t.

Baseball on FanDuel can be awful - if you bet on a guy to do anything (hit a HR, for example) and he is benched but comes in to pinch hit, your bet loses if he doesn’t deliver in that one AB.

Tennis is bad for hedging/converting free bets. You really need to know the house rules across books. Some void your bet if someone retires early, others don’t.
 
I initially flubbed hedging my $1k bet365 no sweat bet on a women's tennis doubles match because it turned out that only ~10% of the bet was automatically approved by bet365 and the rest would have to be approved by a trader. It didn't warn me of this until I had submitted the bet, and I ended up placing the hedge before realizing the bet365 side hadn't actually submitted due to the warning.

Of course, I didn't place the bet365 side since I had no intention of throwing $900 of sweat prevention down the toilet, and thankfully the hedge ended up voiding after a few days. It looks as if the match was never played.

Not gonna lie though, the degenerate in me was kind of hoping I'd be stuck with the bet and that the favorites would take care of business and net me a few hundred bonus dollars (not to be confused with bonus bets).
 
Grit said:
I initially flubbed hedging my $1k bet365 no sweat bet on a women's tennis doubles match because it turned out that only ~10% of the bet was automatically approved by bet365 and the rest would have to be approved by a trader. It didn't warn me of this until I had submitted the bet, and I ended up placing the hedge before realizing the bet365 side hadn't actually submitted due to the warning.

Of course, I didn't place the bet365 side since I had no intention of throwing $900 of sweat prevention down the toilet, and thankfully the hedge ended up voiding after a few days. It looks as if the match was never played.

Not gonna lie though, the degenerate in me was kind of hoping I'd be stuck with the bet and that the favorites would take care of business and net me a few hundred bonus dollars (not to be confused with bonus bets).
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Whoa, that's sketchy/scary. I wonder if bet365 always does that for the size of a first bet, or if it was due to it being such a niche event?

The lack of warning before clicking submit on stuff like that is so fucked. Lots of books seem to have similar issues - Fanduel stands out as being most transparent and user friendly to me. Janky, shady industry.
 
Pantone287 said:
Whoa, that's sketchy/scary. I wonder if bet365 always does that for the size of a first bet, or if it was due to it being such a niche event?

The lack of warning before clicking submit on stuff like that is so fucked. Lots of books seem to have similar issues - Fanduel stands out as being most transparent and user friendly to me. Janky, shady industry.
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I've only had it come up on bet365, and it was frustrating because it came up multiple times with these slightly more unconventional bets like 1st set moneylines or alt total over/unders. I think eventually there was no approval needed on an NHL full game moneyline, so probably true about the niche events. Honestly though for just $1k I'd think they could have just accepted most of them.

I agree the warning should come up as you type in the wager similar to what happens when one of the promos is capped at some limit.
 
bet365 seems like maybe they just suck in general. I've been "helping my dad" (in case they're spywaring me) go through the promo squeeze on all the sites as well, and they flagged his account for potential fraud after doing nothing but signing up and depositing $1k. When you message support like the prompt says to, they just say it's a management call, you'll never be able to use the platform to bet, and no one will be able to tell you why.

His account has only ever been used on his own laptop, and funded with his own debit card, linked to his own home address, etc., so it seems odd.
 
B365 will limit you to nothing, inevitably, after a few months of playing their promos and abusing their bad lines. Their 1st basket lines in NBA are egregious. Stuff like Steph Curry +1000. Makes absolutely no sense and is around +50% EV if you devig it against other books. They have weird correlation in SGPs, like some role player under 2.5 3s and over 11.5 points at +20000 or something, which will be obviously off based on the fact that the guy has done it 4 times already that season. There were several weeks at the start of last baseball season where they were offering much better odds for several guys to get 1+ total bases than to get a 1+ hit (you can’t get a base without getting a hit).

They’re often way off on live moneylines, which is why I recommend not abusing them and playing their live lines instead. Having an unlimited account at B365 is like a goldmine.
 
Fun fact - Underdog Sports apparently returns bonus bets as cash if you win. Makes their 1k no sweat welcome even better.

Their support is also great, even though their actual book is very basic. Quite a contrast from the other books.
 
Another insane deposit match from FD this evening. $1.5k in bonus bets, immediately credited upon deposit. Just a random Weds night gift.

I don't know how this business model is real. Makes zero sense to me.
 
They must think you’re a whale because you’re constantly losing there on normal betting markets while hedging elsewhere. You might want to do something square-like to reinforce this, such as putting a few hundred on a UNC/Houston parlay if you’re allowed to bet on NC colleges. If you lose, they’ll give you more free bets and you’ll be happy emotionally. If you win, you’ll win money. Losing an occasional $20-30 of EV to be treated like a VIP loser is well worth it.
 
It really is an amazing cycle. They keep giving me incentives, which I keep betting on underdogs, which keep losing, which probably reinforces the idea that I'm a rich idiot who will eventually blow millions.

Now that I think of it, I think one of my early bets on Fanduel was a hedge of a $1k NS elsewhere that lost thousands as a heavy favorite. May have been what set me on this path with the algorithm.
 
Pantone287 said:
It really is an amazing cycle. They keep giving me incentives, which I keep betting on underdogs, which keep losing, which probably reinforces the idea that I'm a rich idiot who will eventually blow millions.

Now that I think of it, I think one of my early bets on Fanduel was a hedge of a $1k NS elsewhere that lost thousands as a heavy favorite. May have been what set me on this path with the algorithm.
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FanDuel seems to love funding my current strategy of throwing $50 bonus bets on first scorer for every player with 900 or higher odds. FD parlays are kind of fun because they seem to give great odds on some of them. Definitely going to play around more with those crazy high odds when I'm getting to the last of my bonus bet money.

Meanwhile ESPN wants me to place $10k in bets on S16 games for $500 in bonus bets. PASS!
 
Honestly, these apps are pretty incredible with how seamless the experience is to bet on not just a billion things with real-time odds but also endless combinations of those things.
 
Fellas, what's the best way to hedge this? Just easier to take the cash-out than tie up capital to squeeze a tiny more EV out of here? Maybe just let it ride and see if they can get past Purdue what happens?

Screenshot 2024-04-02 at 6.35.25 PM.png
 
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It’s hard to hedge it without pain, given the short odds involved. But I would hedge instead of cashing out. You can assume cash out is at least 20% lost compared with hedging at the best odds offered elsewhere in whatever way feels best to you. You’d only tie up cash for a few minutes, if that’s a concern.

People were doing this with FAU last season. Bunch of Redditors with FAU national title at 250-1.
 
FanDuel’s Dinger Tuesday promo was/is the best promo out there. You guys should do it. Most of the country has been nerfed down to basically betting $25 on one dude to homer each Tuesday, but it used to allow $25 on one dude in every game, usually 14-15 games. Last year it was nerfed to basically 4 dudes across 4 games. In NC, I assume there’s a chance they’re letting you do more than the rest of the country. FanDuel built a lot of market share off the back of this promo; it’s a shame they’ve destroyed it.
 
SeanMayTriedToEatMe said:
FanDuel’s Dinger Tuesday promo was/is the best promo out there. You guys should do it. Most of the country has been nerfed down to basically betting $25 on one dude to homer each Tuesday, but it used to allow $25 on one dude in every game, usually 14-15 games. Last year it was nerfed to basically 4 dudes across 4 games. In NC, I assume there’s a chance they’re letting you do more than the rest of the country. FanDuel built a lot of market share off the back of this promo; it’s a shame they’ve destroyed it.
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Looks like you can do one player per game in as many games as you want here. Would you just expect to get ~$10 back in bonus bets on each $25 bet, roughly?

I don't follow baseball enough to know who to bet on and how safe it'd be, but looks like there's a reddit thread on it each week. Maybe I'll try it next week.
 
Ohtani update:



I know if I ever made that many bets, I would have $40 million in winnings, not losses. What is this guy’s problem?
 
Amazing +EV gambling event tonight, but was tuned in too late to do a ton of damage with it. Flyers (NHL) needed to beat the Caps before OT to make the playoffs, so Flyers were always going to pull their goalie in a tie game with a few minutes left. Books weren’t adjusting properly for this. Ended up with stuff like double chance - Caps or Flyers win in regulation +200 with a few minutes left in a tie game. Books kept increasing the odds on this and related stuff due to their set models not accounting properly for the playoff scenario, until the Caps finally scored on an empty net. People made so much on this.
 
@SeanMayTriedToEatMe any advice on DK's Up 2 Early Win for MLB and NHL? I saw to use on dogs in games with high O/U which makes sense, but I'm not sure how to convince myself what the best choice is or how valuable it is.
 
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