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The Economy

ZackM

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Use this thread for general discussion about the economy.
 
Potential to be a great thread.

The United States projects to become the world's first $20 trillion economy next year.

Population should reach around 327 million (nearly 20 million increase in 8 years) while Russia is hemorrhaging population. Japan in trouble. China soon to be on the decline. European Union getting ready to hemorrhage 65+ million people when Brexit is made official.

It's not going to happen in my lifetime because of stupid Republicans, but I want to see America with 1 billion people and a GDP over $100 trillion. Those would be my two goals if I were elected president.

Re-open Ellis Island and capitalize on the absurdly attractive American brand. I get tears in my eyes when thinking of all those immigrants seeing Lower Manhattan for the first time like in The Godfather.

"The glamour of it all! New York! America!" - Charlie Chaplin
 
1 billion people?!?!?! Why on earth would you want that? We can't take care of the 325 million we've already got.
 
Republicans are preventing the US from growing by 670 million people in the next 50 years.
 
Because he's trolling.

No sir.

I love prosperity, money, wealth, and power and there's no better way for a country to get more of each than with immigrants. Immigration and the social issues are where I vehemently disagree with Republicans.

Imagine if we had 10 cities as large as New York. I'd be in fucking heaven tracking all the development, that's for sure.

And @ZackM , I think we could absolutely do it! I bet people were saying "13 million people is way too many" in 1830, too. You can't be afraid of growth and expansion, my man!

And I don't think utopia is possible-there will always be homeless/hungry in every society- but the American GDP per capita is $57,000, which is simply absurd given our size. It's larger than Germany, UK, France, etc, and it's not close. PLUS our houses on average are 50-100% larger than the rest of the world and we just set a record for automobile purchases in a fiscal year.

I absolutely think we could add 670 million and INCREASE our standard of living by 2100. I am a believer in the human spirit and unbridled ambition. We currently take in 1 million immigrants per annum. I'd like that bumped up to 9 million. That'd get us to a billion and then some with our current birth rate.
 
Trickle down economics should work this time around.

When has it not? The entire concept of capitalism is based on wealth trickling down. I come from a very poor family and we would still have dirt floors and would be eating beans every day if not for trickle-down economics. That's really the only logical way an economy works in my mind. How would trickle-up economics work when poor people have nothing? What is going to trickle up? Can you explain those mechanics? (honest question; not being a dick)
 
Trickle down economics should work this time around.

When has it not?

Almost ever? Certainly not in an environment like this. When marginal rates are confiscatory - like they were in the 50s, 60s and 70s - releasing capital sometimes works. But they were 70-90% then as opposed to 39% now. These cuts are simply a big Keynesian stimulus when we don't need one. Balance/reduce the damn budget/deficit when the economy is growing....like now....and go with the deficit spending when it needs a goose. Which it probably will. Soon. And we'll be out of powder.

As far as how capitalism works, you seem to have no clue. If beneficence of the rich is required for capitalism to work, I guess all the poor countries are fucked, they should just go commie. Capitalism works when free actors create value though ideas and efficiencies. The greatest capitalists in our history - Vanderbilt, Carnegie, Ford, Rockefeller, Gates, Bezos - didn't rely on the patronage of the rich. They went out and generated wealth through their creative brilliance, managerial brilliance, focus and hard work.

I'm not against tax cuts in general, and me and my company will benefit tremendously with the new law, but this is the absolute wrong thing at the wrong time. No tax reform is worth a flying fuck unless it abolishes the abhorrent carried interest loophole, and the fact this one doesn't shows that it is simply a give away rather than a serious piece of legislation. I'll be richer than I otherwise would have next year, but I won't being doing a damn thing for the economy. Probably pocket the proceeds and maybe go on a nicer trip to Europe.
 
Trickle down economics should work this time around.

When has it not?

As far as how capitalism works, you seem to have no clue. If beneficence of the rich is required for capitalism to work, I guess all the poor countries are fucked, they should just go commie. Capitalism works when free actors create value though ideas and efficiencies. The greatest capitalists in our history - Vanderbilt, Carnegie, Ford, Rockefeller, Gates, Bezos - didn't rely on the patronage of the rich. They went out and generated wealth through their creative brilliance, managerial brilliance, focus and hard work.

No, the poor countries are not fucked. Why would they go commie? They should exploit their competitive/natural advantages and focus on making themselves attractive for foreign investment.

Did Microsoft use venture capital? Did Amazon? Did either go public?

The answer to all of those is the same: yes.

Ford was an innovator but he doesn't start Ford Motor without investors.

Vanderbilt, Carnegie, and Rockefeller are great stories, but they absolutely relied on trickle down. How else would they have acquired capital to invest? How would Vanderbilt acquire his initial boat to go from Staten Island to Manhattan? By working for someone richer than he was at the time. Rockefeller made money by working for richer people before he got into oil.

Mike Bloomberg doesn't start Bloomberg LP without a $10 million severance from Salomon Brothers.

Ideas are an absolutely crucial part of the equation but an idea without financial backing is worthless.
 
I wonder what the Irish and British are thinking with the new American corporate tax rate.

I bet it's something like, "Oh shit."

200.gif
 
Trickle down economics should work this time around.

When has it not?

Almost ever? Certainly not in an environment like this. When marginal rates are confiscatory - like they were in the 50s, 60s and 70s - releasing capital sometimes works. But they were 70-90% then as opposed to 39% now. These cuts are simply a big Keynesian stimulus when we don't need one. Balance/reduce the damn budget/deficit when the economy is growing....like now....and go with the deficit spending when it needs a goose. Which it probably will. Soon. And we'll be out of powder.

As far as how capitalism works, you seem to have no clue. If beneficence of the rich is required for capitalism to work, I guess all the poor countries are fucked, they should just go commie. Capitalism works when free actors create value though ideas and efficiencies. The greatest capitalists in our history - Vanderbilt, Carnegie, Ford, Rockefeller, Gates, Bezos - didn't rely on the patronage of the rich. They went out and generated wealth through their creative brilliance, managerial brilliance, focus and hard work.

I'm not against tax cuts in general, and me and my company will benefit tremendously with the new law, but this is the absolute wrong thing at the wrong time. No tax reform is worth a flying fuck unless it abolishes the abhorrent carried interest loophole, and the fact this one doesn't shows that it is simply a give away rather than a serious piece of legislation. I'll be richer than I otherwise would have next year, but I won't being doing a damn thing for the economy. Probably pocket the proceeds and maybe go on a nicer trip to Europe.

I agree - a tax cut like this should be timed for an economic downturn, when we need cash flow...and that has to be targeted to the middle and working class. The wealthy are less likely to spend and more likely to invest overseas at low tax rates.

Given GDP is already approaching 4% as the US is freeing its grip from the 2013-2015 Sequestration, further heating of the economy will just rase interest rates, which will exacerbate the deficit and debt the tax bill blows up....which could increase inflationary pressures, stimulating the Fed to raise interest rates...which slows growth. The Congress convinces itself and the public for more austerity - which ensures the next Dem Congress and POTUS inherent a radioactive economy.

If Republicans win, they get to kill the Beast. If they lose, Dems are stuck with the hot potato and resistance in installing remedies.
 

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