UNC Basketball 2017-2018

[SeanMayTriedToEatMe]

I agree with all of that. It would be weird to see freshmen do very well in big minutes at UNC. Justin Jackson, Marcus Paige, Harrison Barnes and Kendall Marshall come the closest this decade, but I would not consider any of their freshman seasons to be very good.

I think you have to go back to Ty Lawson in 2007 to find a freshman whom Roy gave big minutes to and who lived up to the hype.

 

[deeyoukayeee]

Brandan Wright was better than Lawson in '07. Hell, Lawson sat behind Frasor or Wes Miller for a time (forgot which).

KJ Smith is Kenny's son. Apparently he sucks, according to IC reports.

Coby White does bother me a bit. From what I've seen, he's a pretty explosive scorer. I hope he has a Berry/Paige/Jackson freshman year, but if he is competent, they'll be pretty good. This year's bigs will definitely be better, no idea what to make of Little. If White isn't ready, they are in trouble in the backcourt.

 

[StopThePumpFakesShav]

I agree with all of that. It would be weird to see freshmen do very well in big minutes at UNC. Justin Jackson, Marcus Paige, Harrison Barnes and Kendall Marshall come the closest this decade, but I would not consider any of their freshman seasons to be very good.

I think you have to go back to Ty Lawson in 2007 to find a freshman whom Roy gave big minutes to and who lived up to the hype.

Yep. I think the big thing here is Cam Johnson, as others have said. I'd much prefer them to have two very good upperclassmen versus three. Good upperclassmen has been the key driver of their recent success.

I also hope Roy puts Brooks ahead of Manley in the pecking order at the 5. I think Brooks may be the better scorer but Manley's advanced #s (esp rebounding rate) are very good. Only 25% of team minutes, and so the numbers could go down when he has to play more, but this guy has elite 4-year garbageman potential written all over him.

As long as it takes Roy to turn certain types of highly rated guys like Jackson and Pinson into meaningful contributors (and I think Little fits that mold as others are predicting), he's on a recent hot streak with 3-star bigs significantly outperforming expectations.

 

[physicsfactor]

I agree with Slap about playmaking. UNC needs a grad transfer PG badly.

 

[Slap the Floor]

I think Roy is finding a new strategy to help buffer their troubles in recruiting. He's basically just signing 3 and 4-star big men, because he would rather them stay 4 years, and they're all going to be good because UNC develops bigs at an incredible pace- an he's also just signing shooters like Kenny Williams, Cam Johnson (that fell into their lap, but still) Brandon Robinson and Platek.

By doing this he has competent big men which will struggle initially but when they turn the corner, he will have beasts for 2-3 seasons from their sophomore/junior through senior seasons, shooters to hit open shots, and then he just has to have 2-3 guys that are the next "cut above" like a Justin Jackson, Berry, etc.

Coby White is definitely a worry. His freshman season doesn't worry me, but the potential of him being a 3 year guy is annoying.

It's a good strategy, but it banks on a couple of things A.) That each player will develop. For example, if Seventh Woods, Brandon Robinson, Platek and Hufman never really develop these are 4 essentially wasted scholarships. B.) That the guys he is banking on to be a multi-year guy like Coby White, actually come back. These players leaving early, hurt UNC so bad. This killed UNC when Tony Bradley left early- Roy and staff were 100% banking on Bradley returning for his sophomore season. If you get enough of these, especially in succession, it kills them long term.

Tony Bradley is a perfect example of the fine line Roy is playing with that strategy- Bradley was probably the difference between a 4-5 loss, 1 seed, Final Four caliber team and a 10 loss team that lost by 20 in the 2nd round.

What he's doing is building a very solid foundation/infrastructure with guys like Kenny Williams, Luke Maye, Garrison Brooks, Platek, etc, but he needs the Tony Bradleys and Coby White's to desperately stay multi-years otherwise they just simply do not have enough firepower to compete for a National Title.

This is why UNC cannot compete next season for a title- they won't have enough firepower. They didn't have enough firepower this year, and they lose their two best players in Pinson and Berry and aren't bringing in anyone that will adequately replace them.

 

[StopThePumpFakesShav]

I agree with Slap about playmaking. UNC needs a grad transfer PG badly.

I think they have a scholarship issue. If I'm counting right, in addition to what's on the top of the page in CMon's post, they also have Robinson, Platek and Huffman on scholarship, so that's 12. And then is this Smith guy a walk-on or a scholarship? Plus they are recruiting Montgomery.

I guess maybe they'll get a transfer or two out to bail them out.

 

[DurhamSon]

What streak of 3* bigs turning into beasts are you talking about? Luke Maye is the only one I can think of, and that was essentially a black swan event. Desmond Hubert sucked and was limited for four years which is more in line with how 3*s perform.

Seventh Woods cannot be your primary playmaker on a top 3 seed. Their PG situation is even more fucked than ours last year. Last two times they were questionable there was 2013 (8 seed) and 2010 to Jan '11 (NIT and on pace for another NIT before Kendall Marshall replaced Strickland).

 

[StopThePumpFakesShav]

Hubert was terrible but take a look at the advanced profiles of Manley and Brooks, especially Manley.

Manley is 111 ORating on high usage in 25% of team minutes. O-rebounding rate is better than Bagley or Carter's (again, less minutes may make it easier to be good at this). Would be top 25 nationally had he qualified from a minutes perspective. D-rebounding rate in the top 75 nationally had he qualified. And he's only a freshman.

Your point that they currently have an issue at PG is more important that all of that, though.

 

[rome8180]

I would also say that Bradley was better quicker than they had a right to expect. I know he wasn't a three-star guy, but he was the #25 recruit in the composite. I don't think you should expect a #25 big man to be as good as he was as a freshman.

Maye is definitely flukish, but like StPFS said, Manley and Brooks seem to be following that same trajectory. I know it's "eye-testy," but their bigs always seem to know how to box out, how to get into their post moves quickly, how to run the floor, and how not to bring the ball down on the catch.

 

[rome8180]

Roy should just run Coby White at PG from the get-go. That is the solution. He's already proven he doesn't need a high-assist player at that position (Paige and Berry weren't).

I hope he doesn't figure this out and instead gives White the freshman Kendall Marshall treatment while Woods implodes like Larry Drew III did.

 

[DurhamSon]

We'll see what happens when Manley is being leaned on for starters minutes. I have the same skepticism that i do with Javin in that regard. Fwiw i was replying to CHS who said Roy was turning 3*s into beasts, not 'reliable role players' or w/e.

 

[DurhamSon]

Roy should just run Coby White at PG from the get-go. That is the solution. He's already proven he doesn't need a high-assist player at that position (Paige and Berry weren't).

I hope he doesn't figure this out and instead gives White the freshman Kendall Marshall treatment while Woods implodes like Larry Drew III did.

Those two had some semblance of playing making ability starting their soph years and in HS. White is like frank jackson level playmaking deficient. IC staff isn't pulling any punches on their evaluation on that weakness of his.

 

[rome8180]

What about Leaky Black? Is he just not good? Also, what the hell is his position? 247 lists him as SF, PG, which seems odd.

A creative coach would maybe have Nas Little be the playmaker.

 

[deeyoukayeee]

I think Roy is finding a new strategy to help buffer their troubles in recruiting.

I don't think his strategy is anything but trying to get the best players possible who will still buy into his bullshit, and hope to get lucky - Maye developing, signing Coby White before he moved way up in the rankings, Little getting caught up in the AZ thing, Pittsburgh buckling when he tampered with Cam, etc.

We're on a treadmill right now no doubt, needing to reload and have dudes reclass. But they are no less desperate for lucky breaks to remain competitive, maybe more.

 

[physicsfactor]

 

[deepdarkblue]

That face is already every UNC fan, every day of every year. It's the "duh huh" face.

 

[CMon85]

Apparently Little has killed it and White can't miss at the McDs practices.

 

[Slap the Floor]

Would love for him and Little to go one and done.