Duke Basketball 2018-2019

[DurhamSon]

Of course you take him back. Problem is, feels like he's another Frank Jackson who's deadset on leaving no matter what.

 

[rome8180]

He'll play better. One thing I'm doing in the new year is trying not to be a "prisoner of the moment," so to speak.

 

[SeanMayTriedToEatMe]

Overreacting to the most recent play as if it is the only thing the player has ever done in his life is my entire approach to sports fandom.

 

[CMon85]

I think the hate of Duval on this board is a little out of control. Feel like everyone gets the benefit of the doubt except him.

As a freshman:

11.5pts
6asts
2.1rebs
1.6stls
2.5tos
46%fg

After starting 3-23 from 3(13%), he's now 11 of his last 31(35%) and 7 of his last 12 for 58%.

In the 5 games before this most recent 2 game struggle he averaged:

15pts
5.2asts
2.5rebs
1.2stl
3.2tos
54%fg
47%3pt

His FT% has been gross all year but he's having a really good freshman season IMO.

 

[bdotling]

I don't hate him. I actually I think my issues with him are similar to my issues with Quinn in the early years. It's more situational awareness as to when he gambles and makes the boneheaded play vs when he plays conservative and smart. I just think Duval does it in a much more extreme fashion given the degree of difficulty he takes on at the rim and because he still is generally a bad shooter.

I do think when he sees bench time for playing so terribly, he tends to come back in and finish strong (except last night when they didn't need him to come in at all). It's like the coaches need to rein him in a bit before he fully settles down.

 

[Devilsforlife]

I mostly worry about him having an absolute stinker of a game, which he's prone to, in the tournament, which could potentially be fatal. This year's tournament; I really don't see any realistic scenario where he is on the team in 2019.

 

[niveklaen]

Kinda funny to see a lot of fan reaction like "OMG NO 1 CAN GUARD US NEXT YEAR" when the offense is perennially top 5. It's always so sad that they just forget half the sport.

These are the same people who argue that Harden should have gotten MVP over Westbrook last year. They also prefer Luke to WInslow. They are insane.

 

[SeanMayTriedToEatMe]

Westbrook is also a very bad defender.

 

[rome8180]

Yeah, and the MVP is pretty much always offense based. There wasn't really any argument for Westbrook besides the arbitrary triple double narrative.

 

[torontoduke]

Westbrook is also a very bad defender.

But he's an athlete.

 

[ZackM]

Yeah, and the MVP is pretty much always offense based. There wasn't really any argument for Westbrook besides the arbitrary triple double narrative.

The stat that is dependent on base 10 numbering systems.

 

[SeanMayTriedToEatMe]

It was close. I just take offense if someone says anyone who thought Harden had the best season wasn't paying attention to defense. Really, Kawhi probably should've won, but caring about defense to that extent is unrealistic for MVP voting.

 

[niveklaen]

Westbrook is also a very bad defender.

Fake news.

Westbrook was the 13th best defensive player in the league last year according to basketball reference's defensive ratings metric and 8th by defensive win shares

https://www.basketball-reference.com/leagues/NBA_2017_leaders.html

he was 23rd by NBA.com's defensive win score metric

https://stats.nba.com/players/defense/?sort=DEF_WS&dir=-1&Season=2016-17&SeasonType=Regular Season

Westbrook was very much a plus defender last year.

 

[torontoduke]

That is really interesting - quite surprised at those numbers.

I often see Russ taking plays off on the defensive end.

 

[SeanMayTriedToEatMe]

Westbrook is also a very bad defender.

Fake news.

Westbrook was the 13th best defensive player in the league last year according to basketball reference's defensive ratings metric and 8th by defensive win shares

https://www.basketball-reference.com/leagues/NBA_2017_leaders.html

he was 23rd by NBA.com's defensive win score metric

https://stats.nba.com/players/defense/?sort=DEF_WS&dir=-1&Season=2016-17&SeasonType=Regular Season

Westbrook was very much a plus defender last year.

Unlike college defensive stats, NBA defensive stats are advanced enough and publicly available enough where you should only use the basics of defensive rating and win shares as a starting point, rather than as the only definitive stats available. All the stats you cited are heavily influenced by the team around you, as well as Westbrook's stat-padding with defensive rebounds and often ill-advised gambling for steals. That's why when we look at defensive ratings, defensive win shares and DBPM for Duke players, the only helpful way to look at them is relative to all teammates, and it's particularly suspicious if someone appears to be a terrible defender but has a good defensive rating while grabbing lots of defensive rebounds (Jabari Parker).

Here are some good summaries of how bad Russell Westbrook was on defense last year, during his MVP season:


After having watched the Thunder a dozen or so games in the last month, I've come to notice that their entire rebounding scheme is designed around boxing out bigs and letting Westbrook crash the glass uncontested. This isn't to say Westbrook isn't a great rebounder relative to his position, because he's one the best, but his rebounds are absolutely inflated.

Westbrook is leading the NBA in uncontested DREB's with 7.9 rpg, even higher than guys that are anchored around the rim for defensive purposes like Whiteside, Gobert, Jordan, and David.

Beyond that, Westbrook has BY FAR the lowest contested DREB% in the league for any player averaging >5 RPG.

One might start to wonder how a PG could be accumulating so many uncontested rebounds, digging into Westbrook's shot contests gives a clearer picture.

Westbrook has contested a grand total of 160 FG's on the ENTIRE SEASON.

That number is staggeringly low and to be frank, flat out embarrassing. To put his 3.4 contests per game in perspective, OKC backup PG Cameron Payne is averaging 4.1 contests per game while playing in less than half of the minutes that Westbrook is.

Westbrook ranks dead last in the NBA in contested shots among players averaging 30 or more MPG by a considerable margin. Hilariously, the only two players who have contested less 3P FGA's are Rudy Gobert and Whiteside, who have contested 53 and 64 respectively. Russell Westbrook is at 69 while having playing close to the same amount of minutes...Yes, DeAndre Jordan has contested more 3P FGA's this season than Russell Westbrook.

Some people may point to other names on that list, i.e. Jimmy Butler, showing they have fairly lower contest numbers as well. The difference being Jimmy Butler's counterpart is attempting 4 fewer FGA than Westbrook's.

Westbrook is contesting approximately 3.4 of his PG matchup's 13.1 FGA while on the floor. The player he's supposed to be defending is attempting 74% of their shots without a contest from Westbrook. Butler on the other hand is right around 45%.

Ignoring the fact that he leaving his man with regularity to chase rebounds, even when Westbrook contests shots he's the worst guard in the league in expected FG% against.

His opp. +6.9% over expected FG% is dead last in the NBA among guards. The only other players over 4.5% are Sean Kilpatrick, Kyle Korver, and Emmanuel Mudiay.

Link


Awful Defense: Much has been made about Steph Curry and James Harden being subpar defenders, but the reality is, Westbrook is far inferior to both of them when it comes to defense. Among players playing 25+ minutes per game, Westbrook ranks 2nd to last in shots contested per game, ahead of only Jamal Crawford, who is regarded as one of the worst defensive guards in the NBA. People point to his respectable 1.6 steals per game as a sign of defensive prowess, but these steals often come from gambling and more often than not he pulls himself out of position while trying to steal the ball. Not only is Westbrook a sub par help defender, he is also a horrible one on one isolation defender. He ranks 136 out of 144 qualified players in isolation defense, allowing 1.29 PPP (points per possession). Players shoot an astounding 76.9% from the field when in isolation with Westbrook. Essentially, his defense is about as good as a folding chair.

Link


Westbrook was actually far worse than Harden as a defender last season, and by many legitimate metrics, Westbrook was the worst defensive player in the league by a large margin.

 

[physicsfactor]

Oof

 

[aiw]

Babality

 

[Topher]

Id like to report a murder

 

[ZackM]

Id like to report a murder

 

[niveklaen]

Westbrook is also a very bad defender.

Fake news.

Westbrook was the 13th best defensive player in the league last year according to basketball reference's defensive ratings metric and 8th by defensive win shares

https://www.basketball-reference.com/leagues/NBA_2017_leaders.html

he was 23rd by NBA.com's defensive win score metric

https://stats.nba.com/players/defense/?sort=DEF_WS&dir=-1&Season=2016-17&SeasonType=Regular Season

Westbrook was very much a plus defender last year.

Unlike college defensive stats, NBA defensive stats are advanced enough and publicly available enough where you should only use the basics of defensive rating and win shares as a starting point, rather than as the only definitive stats available. All the stats you cited are heavily influenced by the team around you, as well as Westbrook's stat-padding with defensive rebounds and often ill-advised gambling for steals. That's why when we look at defensive ratings, defensive win shares and DBPM for Duke players, the only helpful way to look at them is relative to all teammates, and it's particularly suspicious if someone appears to be a terrible defender but has a good defensive rating while grabbing lots of defensive rebounds (Jabari Parker).

Here are some good summaries of how bad Russell Westbrook was on defense last year, during his MVP season:


After having watched the Thunder a dozen or so games in the last month, I've come to notice that their entire rebounding scheme is designed around boxing out bigs and letting Westbrook crash the glass uncontested. This isn't to say Westbrook isn't a great rebounder relative to his position, because he's one the best, but his rebounds are absolutely inflated.

Westbrook is leading the NBA in uncontested DREB's with 7.9 rpg, even higher than guys that are anchored around the rim for defensive purposes like Whiteside, Gobert, Jordan, and David.

Beyond that, Westbrook has BY FAR the lowest contested DREB% in the league for any player averaging >5 RPG.

One might start to wonder how a PG could be accumulating so many uncontested rebounds, digging into Westbrook's shot contests gives a clearer picture.

Westbrook has contested a grand total of 160 FG's on the ENTIRE SEASON.

That number is staggeringly low and to be frank, flat out embarrassing. To put his 3.4 contests per game in perspective, OKC backup PG Cameron Payne is averaging 4.1 contests per game while playing in less than half of the minutes that Westbrook is.

Westbrook ranks dead last in the NBA in contested shots among players averaging 30 or more MPG by a considerable margin. Hilariously, the only two players who have contested less 3P FGA's are Rudy Gobert and Whiteside, who have contested 53 and 64 respectively. Russell Westbrook is at 69 while having playing close to the same amount of minutes...Yes, DeAndre Jordan has contested more 3P FGA's this season than Russell Westbrook.

Some people may point to other names on that list, i.e. Jimmy Butler, showing they have fairly lower contest numbers as well. The difference being Jimmy Butler's counterpart is attempting 4 fewer FGA than Westbrook's.

Westbrook is contesting approximately 3.4 of his PG matchup's 13.1 FGA while on the floor. The player he's supposed to be defending is attempting 74% of their shots without a contest from Westbrook. Butler on the other hand is right around 45%.

Ignoring the fact that he leaving his man with regularity to chase rebounds, even when Westbrook contests shots he's the worst guard in the league in expected FG% against.

His opp. +6.9% over expected FG% is dead last in the NBA among guards. The only other players over 4.5% are Sean Kilpatrick, Kyle Korver, and Emmanuel Mudiay.

Link


Awful Defense: Much has been made about Steph Curry and James Harden being subpar defenders, but the reality is, Westbrook is far inferior to both of them when it comes to defense. Among players playing 25+ minutes per game, Westbrook ranks 2nd to last in shots contested per game, ahead of only Jamal Crawford, who is regarded as one of the worst defensive guards in the NBA. People point to his respectable 1.6 steals per game as a sign of defensive prowess, but these steals often come from gambling and more often than not he pulls himself out of position while trying to steal the ball. Not only is Westbrook a sub par help defender, he is also a horrible one on one isolation defender. He ranks 136 out of 144 qualified players in isolation defense, allowing 1.29 PPP (points per possession). Players shoot an astounding 76.9% from the field when in isolation with Westbrook. Essentially, his defense is about as good as a folding chair.

Link


Westbrook was actually far worse than Harden as a defender last season, and by many legitimate metrics, Westbrook was the worst defensive player in the league by a large margin.

Well played. Nice to learn more.