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A half-great Duke team continues to try to fix its defense before being put through the wringer at Miami.
Here are some tidbits about the next set of games:
FLORIDA STATE
Saturday, December 30, 2:00pm ET, CBS
Kenpom rankings:
28 overall
45 offense
19 defense
Kenpom projection: Duke 89, FSU 79 (Duke 81%)
With Dwayne Bacon, Jonathan Isaac, Michael Ojo and Xavier Rathan-Mayes all gone, a down season for FSU would be justifiable. Instead, FSU has rolled to an 11-1 record, but it has come against the #310 strength of schedule. Many questions about FSU are about to be answered. FSU's next three games are as tough as it gets: at Duke, vs. UNC, at Miami.
FSU aggressively contests shots, to the detriment of defensive rebounding.
FSU is very active on defense, trying to get their hands on every shot and pass. While FSU's great 3pt% allowed (#13 in the country) could regress over the course of the season, their great 2pt% allowed (#11) and block% (#22) are reliable indicators of strong defense in the paint, and their great steal% (#18) suggests aggressiveness everywhere.
FSU somehow finds a way to play this style without fouling (#27 FT rate allowed), so there's no easy way to score on them. However, by contesting everything, they leave themselves vulnerable on the boards (#279 defensive rebounding rate). Duke's best strategy may be to put the ball on the rim from anywhere and let Marvin Bagley, Wendell Carter, Javin DeLaurier and the recently living Marques Bolden go get it. Ugly bricks can function as smart assists in this game.
Terance Mann will test Duke's interior defense.
FSU's main strengths on offense are making 2s and rebounding. Junior SF/PF Terance Mann (pictured above, embarrassing Chase Jeter) is the engine. Mann apparently wants nothing more than to dunk on people, and he's among the best finishers in college basketball, shooting an absurd 88% at the rim. For comparison, the best finisher at Duke is Bagley, who's shooting 80% at the rim.
Mann has also been respectable on 2pt jumpers, at 40%. He's not much of a threat from 3 (4-20 this season) and he's not great at the line (66% FT). Nonetheless, he has put up an impressive 129 offensive rating based mostly on his ability to get to the rim, which could be a huge problem for Duke.
at NC STATE
Saturday, January 6, 2:00pm ET, ESPN
Kenpom rankings:
77 overall
50 offense
142 defense
Kenpom projection: Duke 91, NC State 81 (Duke 81%)
Duke takes a short trip to face a poor man's version of itself - decent offense and terrible defense. The good news for Duke is that Dennis Smith is in the NBA this season. The bad news is that NC State is apparently better without Smith, now that Kevin Keatts (pictured above) has quit his job as a Duke-Forum message board poster to lead them.
NC State has bigs who can hang with Duke.
Omer Yurtseven and Lennard Freeman are large and good at everything they need to be good at, as long as they stay on the court. Keatts hasn't played them together, whether it's due to conditioning, foul concerns or matchup problems. The potential for a twin towers lineup to match up well against Duke should be worrisome for Duke, but Bagley and Carter's progress on the perimeter may make this impossible for NC State.
Yurtseven is an interesting NBA prospect, while Freeman is an extremely efficient, low-usage garbage guy as a 6-8 265 senior. Yurtseven is a 7-0 245 sophomore, and his rate stats are strong. He has the 4th highest offensive rebounding percentage in the country (18%) and he shoots 65% from 2. The most intriguing part of Yurtseven's game is his potential as a 3-point shooter - he's 6-7 from 3 this season. If Yurtseven bombs 3s against a Duke defense that's willing to allow them, this could be another nightmare road game for Duke.
Braxton Beverly is somehow good at basketball.
NC State's starting point guard is a 6-0 180 freshman who was the #322 recruit in 247's composite rankings. He is also white. Somehow, this guy is quite good already and seems to have a bright future as a 4-year contributor.
The key stats: 117 offensive rating,18% usage, 24% assist rate, 3.5:1 assist:turnover ratio, 30% free throw rate, 86% FT, 35% 3pt. Duke fans would be ecstatic if Duke's 3-star freshman point guard, Jordan Goldwire, were putting up numbers close to Beverly's. Trevon Duval, on the other hand, absolutely must outplay Beverly.
at PITTSBURGH
Wednesday, January 10, 7:00pm ET, ESPN2
Kenpom rankings:
162 overall
179 offense
152 defense
Kenpom projection: Duke 85, Pitt 70 (Duke 91%)
Don't lose.
WAKE FOREST
Saturday, January 13, 12:00pm ET, ESPN3
Kenpom rankings:
72 overall
27 offense
189 defense
Kenpom projection: Duke 91, Wake 75 (Duke 92%)
After a disastrous start to the season, Danny Manning seemed to have righted the ship. Then came a blowout home loss to Tennessee. There has been a dropoff after losing John Collins to the NBA, but this much of a dropoff with every other key piece returning has been unexpected.
Wake's defense is generally terrible, but it might work against Duke.
If you're a Duke fan frustrated by a lack of defense, knowing that Wake exists should make you feel better. Wake hasn't had a top 100 defense since 2010, when Dino Gaudio was still the coach. Manning has made the defense worse each season, to the point where it's now the worst in the ACC. However, Wake's defense might be decent in this game due to a favorable stylistic matchup. They don't even try to defend 3s (#326 3pt% allowed, #322 3pt rate allowed).
Bagley and Carter will have no one guarding them if they're feeling lucky from 3. It seems strange to say this in the current era of basketball, but these guys should probably avoid taking a lot of wide open 3s against Wake. While Wake is decent at defending 2s (#68 2pt% allowed), they are very bad at defensive rebounding (#248). Having Bagley and Carter on the perimeter could prevent what should be a massive edge for Duke on the boards.
Bryant Crawford can still kill Duke.
The transition to life without Collins hasn't been seamless for Crawford, Wake's junior point guard (pictured above, very angry). Crawford's usage is up significantly this season, from 26% to 30%, and his offensive rating and 3pt% have declined. Some of this may be due to more contested shots, but this could also partly be early season noise, which would mean Crawford is a threat to smooth his numbers out against Duke, similar to Boston College's Ky Bowman.
Crawford is even more incredible at getting points at the line this season. His FT rate has increased to 52% as a junior and his FT% has increased to 91%. He's a great playmaker, with a 32% assist rate. Crawford remains a prototype to abuse Duke's defense.
at MIAMI
Monday, January 15, 7:00pm ET, ESPN
Kenpom rankings:
17 overall
61 offense
7 defense
Kenpom projection: Duke 78, Miami 77 (Duke 54%)
This projects as both a "schedule loss" and an objectively reasonable loss for Duke. It's a short turnaround game with travel against a strong opponent, who happens to be the only ACC team with a winning record against Duke since Jim Larranaga (pictured above) took over. It's also on a Monday night with no NFL game to draw away a national audience. You can already feel everyone around the country uniting to root against Duke and genuinely hope for Grayson Allen to collapse on the court. Duke never really feels like an underdog, but a win here would be a minor miracle.
Larranaga is 5-3 with Miami against Duke.
There may be some reasons why Larranaga's 5-3 record versus Duke could be misleading. It's not the case that Miami has mostly won close games and Duke has mostly won blowouts, so the point margin is in Duke's favor. Miami is +27 over the 8 games. It's not the case that Miami has had more home games than Duke. 4 games at Miami, 4 games at Duke. It could be that this is a small sample size oddity.
The reality is probably some combination of sample size, Larranaga winning the coaching battle and Miami playing the sort of style that works best against Duke. Larranaga will expose whatever weaknesses Duke has, and Duke fans should be thankful for that, as Duke can fix the leaks for the NCAA Tournament. In the 2015 title season, Duke lost to Miami by 16 at Cameron.
Miami is searching for direction on offense.
After Shane Larkin, Manu Lecomte and Angel Rodriguez, there has been a hole at the point for Miami. Senior starter Ja'Quan Newton has been poor offensively this season, and his solid defense doesn't make up for it. Freshman backup Chris Lykes hasn't been better. The point guards have been the two worst players in Miami's rotation, judging by BPM and PER. The band-aid solution has been to make sophomore small forward Bruce Brown into a point forward.
Miami's offense is a leaderless work in progress. Lykes has the highest usage (23%) on a team with no high-usage players, and Lykes also has the lowest offensive rating (96). There's no lack of talent on this team, as Miami has 6 players who were rated 4 stars or better as recruits, not including former Duke target Deng Gak, who is redshirting. Larranaga will probably put all of his talent together against Duke.
Here are some tidbits about the next set of games:
FLORIDA STATE
Saturday, December 30, 2:00pm ET, CBS
Kenpom rankings:
28 overall
45 offense
19 defense
Kenpom projection: Duke 89, FSU 79 (Duke 81%)
With Dwayne Bacon, Jonathan Isaac, Michael Ojo and Xavier Rathan-Mayes all gone, a down season for FSU would be justifiable. Instead, FSU has rolled to an 11-1 record, but it has come against the #310 strength of schedule. Many questions about FSU are about to be answered. FSU's next three games are as tough as it gets: at Duke, vs. UNC, at Miami.
FSU aggressively contests shots, to the detriment of defensive rebounding.
FSU is very active on defense, trying to get their hands on every shot and pass. While FSU's great 3pt% allowed (#13 in the country) could regress over the course of the season, their great 2pt% allowed (#11) and block% (#22) are reliable indicators of strong defense in the paint, and their great steal% (#18) suggests aggressiveness everywhere.
FSU somehow finds a way to play this style without fouling (#27 FT rate allowed), so there's no easy way to score on them. However, by contesting everything, they leave themselves vulnerable on the boards (#279 defensive rebounding rate). Duke's best strategy may be to put the ball on the rim from anywhere and let Marvin Bagley, Wendell Carter, Javin DeLaurier and the recently living Marques Bolden go get it. Ugly bricks can function as smart assists in this game.
Terance Mann will test Duke's interior defense.
FSU's main strengths on offense are making 2s and rebounding. Junior SF/PF Terance Mann (pictured above, embarrassing Chase Jeter) is the engine. Mann apparently wants nothing more than to dunk on people, and he's among the best finishers in college basketball, shooting an absurd 88% at the rim. For comparison, the best finisher at Duke is Bagley, who's shooting 80% at the rim.
Mann has also been respectable on 2pt jumpers, at 40%. He's not much of a threat from 3 (4-20 this season) and he's not great at the line (66% FT). Nonetheless, he has put up an impressive 129 offensive rating based mostly on his ability to get to the rim, which could be a huge problem for Duke.
at NC STATE
Saturday, January 6, 2:00pm ET, ESPN
Kenpom rankings:
77 overall
50 offense
142 defense
Kenpom projection: Duke 91, NC State 81 (Duke 81%)
Duke takes a short trip to face a poor man's version of itself - decent offense and terrible defense. The good news for Duke is that Dennis Smith is in the NBA this season. The bad news is that NC State is apparently better without Smith, now that Kevin Keatts (pictured above) has quit his job as a Duke-Forum message board poster to lead them.
NC State has bigs who can hang with Duke.
Omer Yurtseven and Lennard Freeman are large and good at everything they need to be good at, as long as they stay on the court. Keatts hasn't played them together, whether it's due to conditioning, foul concerns or matchup problems. The potential for a twin towers lineup to match up well against Duke should be worrisome for Duke, but Bagley and Carter's progress on the perimeter may make this impossible for NC State.
Yurtseven is an interesting NBA prospect, while Freeman is an extremely efficient, low-usage garbage guy as a 6-8 265 senior. Yurtseven is a 7-0 245 sophomore, and his rate stats are strong. He has the 4th highest offensive rebounding percentage in the country (18%) and he shoots 65% from 2. The most intriguing part of Yurtseven's game is his potential as a 3-point shooter - he's 6-7 from 3 this season. If Yurtseven bombs 3s against a Duke defense that's willing to allow them, this could be another nightmare road game for Duke.
Braxton Beverly is somehow good at basketball.
NC State's starting point guard is a 6-0 180 freshman who was the #322 recruit in 247's composite rankings. He is also white. Somehow, this guy is quite good already and seems to have a bright future as a 4-year contributor.
The key stats: 117 offensive rating,18% usage, 24% assist rate, 3.5:1 assist:turnover ratio, 30% free throw rate, 86% FT, 35% 3pt. Duke fans would be ecstatic if Duke's 3-star freshman point guard, Jordan Goldwire, were putting up numbers close to Beverly's. Trevon Duval, on the other hand, absolutely must outplay Beverly.
at PITTSBURGH
Wednesday, January 10, 7:00pm ET, ESPN2
Kenpom rankings:
162 overall
179 offense
152 defense
Kenpom projection: Duke 85, Pitt 70 (Duke 91%)
Don't lose.
WAKE FOREST
Saturday, January 13, 12:00pm ET, ESPN3
Kenpom rankings:
72 overall
27 offense
189 defense
Kenpom projection: Duke 91, Wake 75 (Duke 92%)
After a disastrous start to the season, Danny Manning seemed to have righted the ship. Then came a blowout home loss to Tennessee. There has been a dropoff after losing John Collins to the NBA, but this much of a dropoff with every other key piece returning has been unexpected.
Wake's defense is generally terrible, but it might work against Duke.
If you're a Duke fan frustrated by a lack of defense, knowing that Wake exists should make you feel better. Wake hasn't had a top 100 defense since 2010, when Dino Gaudio was still the coach. Manning has made the defense worse each season, to the point where it's now the worst in the ACC. However, Wake's defense might be decent in this game due to a favorable stylistic matchup. They don't even try to defend 3s (#326 3pt% allowed, #322 3pt rate allowed).
Bagley and Carter will have no one guarding them if they're feeling lucky from 3. It seems strange to say this in the current era of basketball, but these guys should probably avoid taking a lot of wide open 3s against Wake. While Wake is decent at defending 2s (#68 2pt% allowed), they are very bad at defensive rebounding (#248). Having Bagley and Carter on the perimeter could prevent what should be a massive edge for Duke on the boards.
Bryant Crawford can still kill Duke.
The transition to life without Collins hasn't been seamless for Crawford, Wake's junior point guard (pictured above, very angry). Crawford's usage is up significantly this season, from 26% to 30%, and his offensive rating and 3pt% have declined. Some of this may be due to more contested shots, but this could also partly be early season noise, which would mean Crawford is a threat to smooth his numbers out against Duke, similar to Boston College's Ky Bowman.
Crawford is even more incredible at getting points at the line this season. His FT rate has increased to 52% as a junior and his FT% has increased to 91%. He's a great playmaker, with a 32% assist rate. Crawford remains a prototype to abuse Duke's defense.
at MIAMI
Monday, January 15, 7:00pm ET, ESPN
Kenpom rankings:
17 overall
61 offense
7 defense
Kenpom projection: Duke 78, Miami 77 (Duke 54%)
This projects as both a "schedule loss" and an objectively reasonable loss for Duke. It's a short turnaround game with travel against a strong opponent, who happens to be the only ACC team with a winning record against Duke since Jim Larranaga (pictured above) took over. It's also on a Monday night with no NFL game to draw away a national audience. You can already feel everyone around the country uniting to root against Duke and genuinely hope for Grayson Allen to collapse on the court. Duke never really feels like an underdog, but a win here would be a minor miracle.
Larranaga is 5-3 with Miami against Duke.
There may be some reasons why Larranaga's 5-3 record versus Duke could be misleading. It's not the case that Miami has mostly won close games and Duke has mostly won blowouts, so the point margin is in Duke's favor. Miami is +27 over the 8 games. It's not the case that Miami has had more home games than Duke. 4 games at Miami, 4 games at Duke. It could be that this is a small sample size oddity.
The reality is probably some combination of sample size, Larranaga winning the coaching battle and Miami playing the sort of style that works best against Duke. Larranaga will expose whatever weaknesses Duke has, and Duke fans should be thankful for that, as Duke can fix the leaks for the NCAA Tournament. In the 2015 title season, Duke lost to Miami by 16 at Cameron.
Miami is searching for direction on offense.
After Shane Larkin, Manu Lecomte and Angel Rodriguez, there has been a hole at the point for Miami. Senior starter Ja'Quan Newton has been poor offensively this season, and his solid defense doesn't make up for it. Freshman backup Chris Lykes hasn't been better. The point guards have been the two worst players in Miami's rotation, judging by BPM and PER. The band-aid solution has been to make sophomore small forward Bruce Brown into a point forward.
Miami's offense is a leaderless work in progress. Lykes has the highest usage (23%) on a team with no high-usage players, and Lykes also has the lowest offensive rating (96). There's no lack of talent on this team, as Miami has 6 players who were rated 4 stars or better as recruits, not including former Duke target Deng Gak, who is redshirting. Larranaga will probably put all of his talent together against Duke.
