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A resilient Duke team returns home and looks to sail through a relatively easy month of December. In the meantime, Marvin Bagley, Wendell Carter and Trevon Duval will be preparing for the first and only college final exams that will ever matter to them. JSE: Just Stay Eligible.
Here are some nuggets about the random set of teams Duke faces next:
SOUTH DAKOTA
Saturday, December 2, 2017, 3:30pm ET, ESPN2
Kenpom rankings and projected score as of the time of this post:
130 overall
169 offense
104 defense
Duke 89, South Dakota 69 (Duke 97%)
A new contender emerges from the shadows of Mount Rushmore. The Coyotes of South Dakota are not terrible, but they are unlikely to win at Duke.
South Dakota matches up especially poorly with Duke.
Conventional wisdom and actual stats suggest the best type of team for dealing with Duke would have a perimeter-focused offense that avoids going up against Duke's length inside, along with a defense that focuses on clogging the paint and boxing out. South Dakota does none of this. They go inside on offense and take away 3s on defense. It would've been tough enough to win at Duke with a roster full of unranked 2-star recruits. With their style of play, South Dakota shouldn't be able to pull it off.
Matt Mooney shoots too much.
Mooney, a junior guard who transferred from Air Force after being bullied like the snowflake he is, takes 36% of his team's shots while he's on the court. This is a high enough number to finish among the top 5-10 players in the country in a typical season. The highest number at Duke in the Kenpom era was JJ Redick's 35% as a senior. Mooney is not quite as good as Redick was in college. Mooney's a good 3-point shooter (42% this season), but he shoots worse from inside the arc (38%) than from outside, and he's not a good free throw shooter for a guard (67%). All this leads to an offensive rating of 94 and the posters at South Dakota basketball's leading analytics message board being irate.
ST. FRANCIS (PA)
Tuesday, December 5, 2017, 9:00pm ET, ESPNU
Kenpom rankings and projected score as of the time of this post:
200 overall
136 offense
272 defense
Duke 93, St. Francis 69 (Duke 99%)
I doubt this photo is actually of the St. Francis (PA) Red Flash, but maybe it is. St. Francis is the worst team left on Duke's schedule, according to Kenpom.
St. Francis will lose.
They have a 6-10 guy and a 6-8 guy who roughly split 40 minutes at center, and neither is a very good defensive rebounder. Their next biggest rotation player is 6-4. They have a guard with a 29% usage rate who commits turnovers on nearly a third of his possessions. The only great strength they have is avoiding fouling on defense (#27 in opponent FT attempt rate), which is actually kind of a negative against Duke's bad free throw shooters. They're screwed.
at BOSTON COLLEGE
Saturday, December 9, 2017, 12:00pm ET, ESPN
Chestnut Hill, MA
Kenpom rankings and projected score as of the time of this post:
97 overall
86 offense
122 defense
Duke 84, Boston College 74 (Duke 82%)
ACC road games aren't gimmes, though this will be about as easy as they'll come this season. The only ACC team expected to be significantly worse than BC is Pitt (#157 overall).
BC is much improved.
BC is so reasonably decent this year that it's easy to forget how bad they've been for the past two seasons, during which they've gone 2-36 in ACC play. You may recall when coach Jim Christian inherited a team with upperclassmen Olivier Hanlan and Dennis Clifford on it and had a decent season. Then the awful, ball-dominant grad transfer Eli Carter was invited on board in what would be viewed as tanking if there was any incentive for a college team to tank.
BC has recovered, and now Christian has his best team since taking over in 2014. The only major areas BC has not improved dramatically from last season are 3-point shooting and defensive rebounding. The drop-off in defensive rebounding is understandable, as BC was an elite defensive rebounding team last season (#10 rate) and they lost their two best rebounders to graduation. The drop-off in 3-point shooting is likely a small sample size fluke, as 3 out of their 4 moderate-to-high volume 3-point guys have been much worse so far this season. Everywhere else, this is a much improved team that's at least decent in almost every way. If BC has a breakthrough "law of averages" game from 3 and runs a layup line on Duke's man-to-man defense, then this could obviously come down to the final minutes.
BC is built like a modern basketball team.
Duke may scoff at the notion of "modern" in the context of winning basketball games, since Duke's offense is the best in the country while using a pre-analytics style. However, when you don't have two of the best freshman bigs in college basketball history, a modern analytics-friendly approach is probably for the best. Individually, BC's players fit the bill, which is notable because it hasn't been too common among Duke's opponents thus far. Christian doesn't seem to be a nerd, though, since he's allowing his players to take a ton of midrange shots. Both BC and Duke are close to the bottom 100 in avoiding midrange.
BC's starting guards, Ky Bowman and Jerome Robinson, play a lot of minutes and drive the offense, combining for 49% usage. Bowman (pictured above) is BC's most important player, while Robinson isn't very good but he's drawing fouls and hitting his 3s this season. Bowman has evolved into more of a playmaker at point guard, with an assist/turnover ratio of nearly 3 to 1 this season, albeit against weak competition overall. His 3-point shooting has dipped from 45% last season to under 30% this season, but as already mentioned, this should be more frightening than encouraging for his opponents. Last season's larger sample size probably paints a more realistic picture than Bowman's 47 3pt attempts this season. At some point, he's expected to right the ship from 3, and if that happens, he'll be among the best offensive guards in the ACC.
BC's starting small forward, Jordan Chatman, is the classic low usage catch-and-shoot guy in the offense. He's not shooting well from 3 this season (30%), but his 95% FT shooting this season, 91% FT shooting last season and 42% 3pt shooting last season suggest that he's bound to break through, like Bowman. BC's starting power forward, Deontae Hawkins, is a grad transfer from a strong Illinois State team (#49 overall last season). He's a typical, nicely sized stretch 4 who put up good advanced stats last season all-around. BC's starting center, Nik Popovic, is a garbage man who waits for offensive rebounds (top 50 in offensive rebounding rate) and putbacks (70% of his shots are at the rim).
BC has the respectable individual parts necessary to give Duke's defense problems and potentially win the game. They also have the little-played freshman, Vin Baker, who is the son of former NBA great and 2000 Olympics gold medalist, Vin Baker.
EVANSVILLE
Wednesday, December 20, 2017, 7:00pm ET, ESPN2
Kenpom rankings and projected score as of the time of this post:
156 overall
249 offense
80 defense
Duke 81, Evansville 61 (Duke 97%)
This will be Duke's only game over a stretch of 20 days during their finals period, falling 11 days after BC and 10 days before Florida State. Expect lots of rust. Add in Evansville's extremely slow pace (#329 possessions per game), and in all likelihood, this will be one of the least enjoyable Duke games to watch all season.
Evansville has a unique offensive approach.
The only interesting aspect of the Purple Aces is that they're one of those bizarre teams that's great at 3-point shooting (top 10 3pt%) but doesn't take them (sub-300 3pt attempt rate). Yes, if you're only taking the best possible looks you can get, you're going to be more accurate, but why aren't you trying to balance out your atrocious offense by taking a few more per game?
This phenomenon isn't isolated to this season for Evansville. For the past 10 seasons under their current coach, Marty Simmons, Evansville has been sub-300 or close to it in 3pt attempt rate while being pretty accurate from 3 (top 100 in 6 of 10 years). Simmons loves to watch his team pound it inside and draw fouls, which is generally smart, but he seems to be forgetting half the game. This weird strategy of 3-pointer avoidance with good 3-point shooters, if it is maintained against Duke, will probably look unfortunate and silly against the most gigantic team in the country.
Here are some nuggets about the random set of teams Duke faces next:
SOUTH DAKOTA
Saturday, December 2, 2017, 3:30pm ET, ESPN2
Kenpom rankings and projected score as of the time of this post:
130 overall
169 offense
104 defense
Duke 89, South Dakota 69 (Duke 97%)
A new contender emerges from the shadows of Mount Rushmore. The Coyotes of South Dakota are not terrible, but they are unlikely to win at Duke.
South Dakota matches up especially poorly with Duke.
Conventional wisdom and actual stats suggest the best type of team for dealing with Duke would have a perimeter-focused offense that avoids going up against Duke's length inside, along with a defense that focuses on clogging the paint and boxing out. South Dakota does none of this. They go inside on offense and take away 3s on defense. It would've been tough enough to win at Duke with a roster full of unranked 2-star recruits. With their style of play, South Dakota shouldn't be able to pull it off.
Matt Mooney shoots too much.
Mooney, a junior guard who transferred from Air Force after being bullied like the snowflake he is, takes 36% of his team's shots while he's on the court. This is a high enough number to finish among the top 5-10 players in the country in a typical season. The highest number at Duke in the Kenpom era was JJ Redick's 35% as a senior. Mooney is not quite as good as Redick was in college. Mooney's a good 3-point shooter (42% this season), but he shoots worse from inside the arc (38%) than from outside, and he's not a good free throw shooter for a guard (67%). All this leads to an offensive rating of 94 and the posters at South Dakota basketball's leading analytics message board being irate.
ST. FRANCIS (PA)
Tuesday, December 5, 2017, 9:00pm ET, ESPNU
Kenpom rankings and projected score as of the time of this post:
200 overall
136 offense
272 defense
Duke 93, St. Francis 69 (Duke 99%)
I doubt this photo is actually of the St. Francis (PA) Red Flash, but maybe it is. St. Francis is the worst team left on Duke's schedule, according to Kenpom.
St. Francis will lose.
They have a 6-10 guy and a 6-8 guy who roughly split 40 minutes at center, and neither is a very good defensive rebounder. Their next biggest rotation player is 6-4. They have a guard with a 29% usage rate who commits turnovers on nearly a third of his possessions. The only great strength they have is avoiding fouling on defense (#27 in opponent FT attempt rate), which is actually kind of a negative against Duke's bad free throw shooters. They're screwed.
at BOSTON COLLEGE
Saturday, December 9, 2017, 12:00pm ET, ESPN
Chestnut Hill, MA
Kenpom rankings and projected score as of the time of this post:
97 overall
86 offense
122 defense
Duke 84, Boston College 74 (Duke 82%)
ACC road games aren't gimmes, though this will be about as easy as they'll come this season. The only ACC team expected to be significantly worse than BC is Pitt (#157 overall).
BC is much improved.
BC is so reasonably decent this year that it's easy to forget how bad they've been for the past two seasons, during which they've gone 2-36 in ACC play. You may recall when coach Jim Christian inherited a team with upperclassmen Olivier Hanlan and Dennis Clifford on it and had a decent season. Then the awful, ball-dominant grad transfer Eli Carter was invited on board in what would be viewed as tanking if there was any incentive for a college team to tank.
BC has recovered, and now Christian has his best team since taking over in 2014. The only major areas BC has not improved dramatically from last season are 3-point shooting and defensive rebounding. The drop-off in defensive rebounding is understandable, as BC was an elite defensive rebounding team last season (#10 rate) and they lost their two best rebounders to graduation. The drop-off in 3-point shooting is likely a small sample size fluke, as 3 out of their 4 moderate-to-high volume 3-point guys have been much worse so far this season. Everywhere else, this is a much improved team that's at least decent in almost every way. If BC has a breakthrough "law of averages" game from 3 and runs a layup line on Duke's man-to-man defense, then this could obviously come down to the final minutes.
BC is built like a modern basketball team.
Duke may scoff at the notion of "modern" in the context of winning basketball games, since Duke's offense is the best in the country while using a pre-analytics style. However, when you don't have two of the best freshman bigs in college basketball history, a modern analytics-friendly approach is probably for the best. Individually, BC's players fit the bill, which is notable because it hasn't been too common among Duke's opponents thus far. Christian doesn't seem to be a nerd, though, since he's allowing his players to take a ton of midrange shots. Both BC and Duke are close to the bottom 100 in avoiding midrange.
BC's starting guards, Ky Bowman and Jerome Robinson, play a lot of minutes and drive the offense, combining for 49% usage. Bowman (pictured above) is BC's most important player, while Robinson isn't very good but he's drawing fouls and hitting his 3s this season. Bowman has evolved into more of a playmaker at point guard, with an assist/turnover ratio of nearly 3 to 1 this season, albeit against weak competition overall. His 3-point shooting has dipped from 45% last season to under 30% this season, but as already mentioned, this should be more frightening than encouraging for his opponents. Last season's larger sample size probably paints a more realistic picture than Bowman's 47 3pt attempts this season. At some point, he's expected to right the ship from 3, and if that happens, he'll be among the best offensive guards in the ACC.
BC's starting small forward, Jordan Chatman, is the classic low usage catch-and-shoot guy in the offense. He's not shooting well from 3 this season (30%), but his 95% FT shooting this season, 91% FT shooting last season and 42% 3pt shooting last season suggest that he's bound to break through, like Bowman. BC's starting power forward, Deontae Hawkins, is a grad transfer from a strong Illinois State team (#49 overall last season). He's a typical, nicely sized stretch 4 who put up good advanced stats last season all-around. BC's starting center, Nik Popovic, is a garbage man who waits for offensive rebounds (top 50 in offensive rebounding rate) and putbacks (70% of his shots are at the rim).
BC has the respectable individual parts necessary to give Duke's defense problems and potentially win the game. They also have the little-played freshman, Vin Baker, who is the son of former NBA great and 2000 Olympics gold medalist, Vin Baker.
EVANSVILLE
Wednesday, December 20, 2017, 7:00pm ET, ESPN2
Kenpom rankings and projected score as of the time of this post:
156 overall
249 offense
80 defense
Duke 81, Evansville 61 (Duke 97%)
This will be Duke's only game over a stretch of 20 days during their finals period, falling 11 days after BC and 10 days before Florida State. Expect lots of rust. Add in Evansville's extremely slow pace (#329 possessions per game), and in all likelihood, this will be one of the least enjoyable Duke games to watch all season.
Evansville has a unique offensive approach.
The only interesting aspect of the Purple Aces is that they're one of those bizarre teams that's great at 3-point shooting (top 10 3pt%) but doesn't take them (sub-300 3pt attempt rate). Yes, if you're only taking the best possible looks you can get, you're going to be more accurate, but why aren't you trying to balance out your atrocious offense by taking a few more per game?
This phenomenon isn't isolated to this season for Evansville. For the past 10 seasons under their current coach, Marty Simmons, Evansville has been sub-300 or close to it in 3pt attempt rate while being pretty accurate from 3 (top 100 in 6 of 10 years). Simmons loves to watch his team pound it inside and draw fouls, which is generally smart, but he seems to be forgetting half the game. This weird strategy of 3-pointer avoidance with good 3-point shooters, if it is maintained against Duke, will probably look unfortunate and silly against the most gigantic team in the country.
