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Duke tries to shake off 16 days of self-imposed rust as they begin the ACC schedule.
CLEMSON
Saturday, January 5, Time TBA, ESPN
Cameron Indoor Stadium
Kenpom Information
Clemson: 37 overall, 37 offense, 48 defense
Projection: Duke 84, Clemson 68 (Duke 92% to win)
Can Duke Lose This Game?
Clemson's defense is a pretty bad matchup for Duke, like a Texas Tech Lite, but Duke just won by double digits against the actual Texas Tech while making zero jumpers for the first ~30 minutes of the game, so what is there to say? It should be almost impossible for Duke to lose at home to a worse version of that team.
Clemson gives up all the 3s their opponents want, while focusing on stopping 2s. They also slow down their opponents; they have one of the longest average defensive possession lengths in the country. This should be a decent recipe to hold back Duke's offense, but the Clemson offense is probably going to get mauled. Clemson doesn't try to take 3s and they're terrible at making them. They're elite at making 2s. In prior seasons, this offensive approach would fare well against Duke, but it should be a disaster this season.
Would Duke Lose This Game if Zion Switched Teams?
Probably. It's interesting to think about how impactful Zion's commitment decision was. Duke's offense without Zion would involve roughly 50% more Barrett iso plays and 50% more Reddish drives to the basket. We would see lots of two-big lineups with both Bolden and DeLaurier on the court. For the first time in our lives, Clemson would be relevant in basketball. From an analytics perspective, Zion has been worth .382 win shares per 40 minutes; swinging that from Duke to Clemson would be massive.
at WAKE FOREST
Tuesday, January 8, 7:00pm ET, ESPN or ESPN2 (TBD)
Joel Coliseum
Kenpom Information
Wake: 150 overall, 111 offense, 200 defense
Projection: Duke 87, Wake 68 (Duke 96% to win)
The Ultimate Test
This is the First True Road Game for Duke and, therefore, a win would finally validate the existence of the basketball program this season. Nothing forges a champion like the crucible of playing literally any team at their place. The Houston Baptist Huskies of the Southland conference went into Winston-Salem and somehow came out with a true road "W." Can Duke do the same?
at FLORIDA STATE
Saturday, January 12, 2:00pm ET, ESPN
Donald L. Tucker Center
Kenpom Information
FSU: 15 overall, 25 offense, 16 defense
Projection: Duke 82, FSU 76 (Duke 69% to win)
Duke Can Lose This Game
There are only three tougher games than this one on Duke's remaining schedule, per Kenpom (at Virginia, at UNC, at VT). If the loss happens, followed by the inevitable court storming that injures Zion and/or Tre (and no one else), comparisons will be made to the 2002 game at FSU. Duke 2002 was arguably a top 3 team in school history, and they lost an early ACC game at FSU by 1 point, largely due to the ball-dominant-but-free throw-challenged star player, Jason Williams, missing six straight free throws down the stretch. Afterward, Williams said "I promise you the next time I’m in that situation I will make them." Later, Williams missed a free throw in that situation, in the Sweet Sixteen, to end Duke's season. As it turns out, someone's FT% does not magically increase at certain times just because he wants it to.
A Disgustingly Effective Brand of Basketball
The biggest "weakness" in FSU's excellent defense has been their foul rate. Whereas Duke is near the top 10 in the country in foul avoidance on defense, FSU is nearly out of the top 300. After years of watching sexual deviant Rick Pitino coach a similarly disgusting brand of basketball, true Duke pessimists know how this will play out. FSU will hack the shit out of Duke and the refs will even out the foul calls somewhat, due to human nature and the game being at FSU, despite Duke actually fouling much less than FSU.
Obviously, this will be effective against Duke for several reasons, including: (1) Duke sucks at shooting free throws (sub-200 FT% as a team); (2) FSU is deeper than Duke (FSU regularly goes with a 10-man rotation, whereas Duke regularly plays 8, not counting Goldwire); (3) FSU is great at shooting free throws (top 50 FT% as a team); and (4) FSU fouls take away transition scoring opportunities from Duke, which often seems to be the only way Duke's offense can score. There is a good chance this will be a frustrating game to watch for Duke fans.
SYRACUSE
Monday, January 14, 7:00pm ET, ESPN
Cameron Indoor Stadium
Kenpom Information
Syracuse: 34 overall, 64 offense, 20 defense
Projection: Duke 81, Syracuse 65 (Duke 92% to win)
A Disgusting Brand of Basketball
After being ranked as the #4 team in the ACC in preseason polls, Syracuse has looked ugly again. They still can't shoot, from anywhere. They still dare you to take 3s, currently in the bottom 10 in the country in preventing 3-point attempts. They still slow the game down to an unwatchable pace. This all might work pretty well against Duke, since Barrett jacking up late shot clock 3s all game won't be pretty, but 50 points may be all Duke needs to win.
CLEMSON
Saturday, January 5, Time TBA, ESPN
Cameron Indoor Stadium
Kenpom Information
Clemson: 37 overall, 37 offense, 48 defense
Projection: Duke 84, Clemson 68 (Duke 92% to win)
Can Duke Lose This Game?
Clemson's defense is a pretty bad matchup for Duke, like a Texas Tech Lite, but Duke just won by double digits against the actual Texas Tech while making zero jumpers for the first ~30 minutes of the game, so what is there to say? It should be almost impossible for Duke to lose at home to a worse version of that team.
Clemson gives up all the 3s their opponents want, while focusing on stopping 2s. They also slow down their opponents; they have one of the longest average defensive possession lengths in the country. This should be a decent recipe to hold back Duke's offense, but the Clemson offense is probably going to get mauled. Clemson doesn't try to take 3s and they're terrible at making them. They're elite at making 2s. In prior seasons, this offensive approach would fare well against Duke, but it should be a disaster this season.
Would Duke Lose This Game if Zion Switched Teams?
Probably. It's interesting to think about how impactful Zion's commitment decision was. Duke's offense without Zion would involve roughly 50% more Barrett iso plays and 50% more Reddish drives to the basket. We would see lots of two-big lineups with both Bolden and DeLaurier on the court. For the first time in our lives, Clemson would be relevant in basketball. From an analytics perspective, Zion has been worth .382 win shares per 40 minutes; swinging that from Duke to Clemson would be massive.
at WAKE FOREST
Tuesday, January 8, 7:00pm ET, ESPN or ESPN2 (TBD)
Joel Coliseum
Kenpom Information
Wake: 150 overall, 111 offense, 200 defense
Projection: Duke 87, Wake 68 (Duke 96% to win)
The Ultimate Test
This is the First True Road Game for Duke and, therefore, a win would finally validate the existence of the basketball program this season. Nothing forges a champion like the crucible of playing literally any team at their place. The Houston Baptist Huskies of the Southland conference went into Winston-Salem and somehow came out with a true road "W." Can Duke do the same?
at FLORIDA STATE
Saturday, January 12, 2:00pm ET, ESPN
Donald L. Tucker Center
Kenpom Information
FSU: 15 overall, 25 offense, 16 defense
Projection: Duke 82, FSU 76 (Duke 69% to win)
Duke Can Lose This Game
There are only three tougher games than this one on Duke's remaining schedule, per Kenpom (at Virginia, at UNC, at VT). If the loss happens, followed by the inevitable court storming that injures Zion and/or Tre (and no one else), comparisons will be made to the 2002 game at FSU. Duke 2002 was arguably a top 3 team in school history, and they lost an early ACC game at FSU by 1 point, largely due to the ball-dominant-but-free throw-challenged star player, Jason Williams, missing six straight free throws down the stretch. Afterward, Williams said "I promise you the next time I’m in that situation I will make them." Later, Williams missed a free throw in that situation, in the Sweet Sixteen, to end Duke's season. As it turns out, someone's FT% does not magically increase at certain times just because he wants it to.
A Disgustingly Effective Brand of Basketball
The biggest "weakness" in FSU's excellent defense has been their foul rate. Whereas Duke is near the top 10 in the country in foul avoidance on defense, FSU is nearly out of the top 300. After years of watching sexual deviant Rick Pitino coach a similarly disgusting brand of basketball, true Duke pessimists know how this will play out. FSU will hack the shit out of Duke and the refs will even out the foul calls somewhat, due to human nature and the game being at FSU, despite Duke actually fouling much less than FSU.
Obviously, this will be effective against Duke for several reasons, including: (1) Duke sucks at shooting free throws (sub-200 FT% as a team); (2) FSU is deeper than Duke (FSU regularly goes with a 10-man rotation, whereas Duke regularly plays 8, not counting Goldwire); (3) FSU is great at shooting free throws (top 50 FT% as a team); and (4) FSU fouls take away transition scoring opportunities from Duke, which often seems to be the only way Duke's offense can score. There is a good chance this will be a frustrating game to watch for Duke fans.
SYRACUSE
Monday, January 14, 7:00pm ET, ESPN
Cameron Indoor Stadium
Kenpom Information
Syracuse: 34 overall, 64 offense, 20 defense
Projection: Duke 81, Syracuse 65 (Duke 92% to win)
A Disgusting Brand of Basketball
After being ranked as the #4 team in the ACC in preseason polls, Syracuse has looked ugly again. They still can't shoot, from anywhere. They still dare you to take 3s, currently in the bottom 10 in the country in preventing 3-point attempts. They still slow the game down to an unwatchable pace. This all might work pretty well against Duke, since Barrett jacking up late shot clock 3s all game won't be pretty, but 50 points may be all Duke needs to win.
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