Game Thread [2021-22] Duke vs. North Carolina (ACC Tournament Finals)

[Slap the Floor]

What's crazy is how much luck goes into all of this. The NCAA Tournament is really a crapshoot. Yes, 86-94 is undoubtedly K's best run, but 98-2004 was razor close to matching it or running up very close behind it. The difference is merely some luck. In 1991 they had the Laettner buzzer-beater versus UCONN and then upsetting UNLV, in 1992 they had the Shot versus Kentucky.

1998: 32-4 record, with just 1 ACC loss, and blew the Elite Eight game against Kentucky
1999: 37-2, a dominant team that lost in the National Championship, undefeated in the ACC, ACCT Champions
2000: 29-5, 15-1 in the ACC, ACCT Champions, S16
2001: 35-4, National Champions, ACCT Champions
2002: 31-4, ACC Tournament Champions, blew the Sweet Sixteen, were #1 on KenPom in offense and defense
2003: 26-7, ACC Tournament Champions, Sweet Sixteen
2004: 31-6, Blew the Final Four game to UCONN

The 86-94 run had some heartbreaking losses, but really the 98-2004 run on paper should've turned out better. They collapsed versus Kentucky in the Elite Eight, blew the title game versus UCONN, blew the Sweet Sixteen versus Indiana, and collapsed against UCONN in 04.

 

[rhfarmer]

Calhoun really had K's balls in a vise.

 

[DUKERULES14]

Louisville in 1986 was really the only heartbreaking loss in that 86-94 run.

There were many in 1998-2004. The only one of them I've really gotten over was UK 1998. The FF would've had us and Carolina, and Carolina may have had more motivation if we were there. IMO, Armaggeddon happens in 1998 if we held off UK

 

[rome8180]

The 1998 UNC team was more talented than we were. And they had just blown a massive lead to us in Cameron. Definitely didn't want to play them.

The 2000 loss was fine. 1999 and 2002 were brutal however. We had the best team by a mile both years.

 

[rome8180]

And of course, in 2004 that late collapse/surge of bad foul calls was the only thing standing between us and a title. GT wasn't even competitive in the championship against UConn.

 

[physicsfactor]

IIRC, Duke had the top AdjEM on kenpom in 98, 99, 01, 02, and 04. Don’t remember where Duke fell in 2000.

I don’t have a subscription with Ken anymore, but I remember 99 having a giant lead - like largest ever - over #2, and 98 was #1 ahead of UNC even though that UNC team was a mad matchup for Duke. Anyone with premium able to tell me how far ahead Duke was in AdjEM in 98, 99, and 01? I know 02 and 04 finished ahead of #2 by a considerable margin.

 

[DUKERULES14]

The 1998 UNC team was more talented than we were. And they had just blown a massive lead to us in Cameron. Definitely didn't want to play them.

The 2000 loss was fine. 1999 and 2002 were brutal however. We had the best team by a mile both years.

I'm not sure UNC was more talented than us in 1998 per se, but the way I'd put it is they had older talent and more athletic, especially in the backcourt.

Cota could handle our ball pressure and they ate us up inside, especially in game 1 when Brand was out of action. The only advantage we had was depth.

UNC biggest problem that year was motivation, which is never a problem when you're playing Duke.

 

[rome8180]

The reason I say 1998 UNC was more talented is they had Jamison, Carter, and Williams all scoring at absurd efficiency. Those players were also all very experienced. Arguably bad coaching by Guthridge that Carter took fewer shots than Williams, but it's not like Williams was some inefficient chucker.

Carter and Jamison finished with the 19th and 48th most points in NBA history, respectively. "Talent" is a nebulous term, and it doesn't matter as much as team dynamic. But they were loaded at the top.

The best players on the 1998 Duke team were still young and far from their peak forms. I will say Duke was deeper and more balanced than UNC though.

 

[rome8180]

IIRC, Duke had the top AdjEM on kenpom in 98, 99, 01, 02, and 04. Don’t remember where Duke fell in 2000.

I don’t have a subscription with Ken anymore, but I remember 99 having a giant lead - like largest ever - over #2, and 98 was #1 ahead of UNC even though that UNC team was a mad matchup for Duke. Anyone with premium able to tell me how far ahead Duke was in AdjEM in 98, 99, and 01? I know 02 and 04 finished ahead of #2 by a considerable margin.

I hate that he won't just give you the numbered list like he does with other years. However, it appears that if Duke was ahead of UNC in overall efficiency it wasn't by much. They were the two most dominant teams that year by far.

 

[physicsfactor]

@rome8180 Would you post a screenshot of 99 and 00 por favor?

 

[rome8180]

I lol every time I see this. Possibly the greatest basketball team of all time.

How the fuck did we not win a title? Maybe the players were really arrogant shitheads who went out partying the night before. I come back to that Florida game where Brand and Maggette made an agreement about him slapping a certain spot on the backboard. Everyone loves that story because it demonstrates "swagger," but what if it demonstrates cockiness?

 

[rome8180]

I actually had a UNC fan friend argue that UConn was "playing at a different level than they were earlier in the season and it wasn't that big of an upset." Dude, they could have been playing at the level of 2015 UK and it still would have been a massive upset. People always ask about dominant teams "could they beat the worst NBA team?" The answer is always no. But 1999 Duke might have been able to.

 

[rome8180]

 

[DurhamSon]

They were the best team by a mile but even that disparity between them and UCONN is only about ~7-8 points on a neutral court from the looks of the graph, actual line of the game be damned. Is that really an enormous upset when we've blown multiple double digit spreads just this year alone at home?

 

[DurhamSon]

The '91 FF team was a 10 point dog against UNLV, it really does cancel out

 

[rome8180]

Looks to me like an adjusted efficiency of 42+ vs UConn at 31. That's just eyeballing it, but I seem to remember Ken Pomeroy saying in a tweet that 1999 Duke was over 42 and closer to 43.

 

[rome8180]

The '91 FF team was a 10 point dog against UNLV, it really does cancel out

I really wish Pomeroy would go all the way back to 1991 with his calculations. I really want to know how 1999 Duke stacks up against 1991 UNLV. They're the only team I can imagine hypothetically exceeding their dominance.

 

[DurhamSon]

The 2010 Duke vs Butler team looks to be just about the same KP disparity. We just underperformed in both title games, but at least were on the right side of Hayward's shot

 

[rome8180]

I'm not sure half of us would be alive if that shot had gone in.

 

[rome8180]

Worth noting we were up by six with under two minutes, I believe. Then we botched two easy shots (Nolan layup and Singler 12-foot jumper) and Butler scored twice quickly. A near collapse that was only prevented by a Zoubek defensive masterpiece. Seriously, the only part of that game I ever rewatch is the final minute or so. Zoubek does about 10 things right and saves us from disaster.