Game Thread [2022-23] Jacksonville

[SeanMayTriedToEatMe]

Monday, November 7, 7:00pm ET, ACCN
Cameron Indoor Stadium

A new era begins for Duke against a classic Cinderella. Jacksonville has been picked to finish 2nd in the ASUN Conference (fka Atlantic Sun), and they check at least a few of the boxes for a low-seed midmajor you don't want to draw in the 1st round of the NCAA Tournament:

• Old and experienced - Their top 7 players are 5 seniors and 2 juniors. This includes 2 6th year seniors, a 5th year senior and a 5th year junior. Some of these guys were playing college basketball when Dereck Lively was in middle school.
• Dominant point guard - Kevion Nolan is by far their best player. 61% of his shots were 3s last season, and he made 37% of them. This was actually a down shooting season for him, after 44% 3pt over the prior two seasons. He also shot 91% ft last season. The obvious choice defensively is to chase him off the 3pt line and make him finish at the rim; he shot only 42% from there. The problem with that strategy is his playmaking; he had a 28% assist rate and 2.9 A/TO last season. There's a realistic scenario in which this guy looks like Steph Curry against an unseasoned Duke defense and puts up an efficient 25 and 8 in a stunning upset to spoil Scheyer's debut.
• Brutally slow tempo - They averaged the 3rd fewest possessions per game in the country last season, at under 62. Any random bad luck for Duke is going to be magnified.

Overall, Jacksonville's defining trait is elite rebounding (top 30 in both OReb and DReb last season), which should show everyone very quickly whether the emphasis on rebounding, or lack thereof, under Scheyer will be any different than under the previous Duke coach.

A loss here would not be the worst loss of the past several seasons, judging by the expected Vegas line, but it might be the most concerning due to the conclusions that are going to be jumped to about Scheyer's abilities.

 

[rome8180]

Based on that description, I'll be happy to win by a possession or two.

 

[DrKlahn]

survive and advance

 

[StopThePumpFakesShav]

Big delta between Kenpom and Torvik. Torvik sees them as basically a 14 seed type team, rated 117 overall. Ken has them around 170.

 

[SeanMayTriedToEatMe]

Sagarin likes them even less, at #211. But even using Sagarin, the spread would only be around 20 for this game, assuming Whitehead and Lively being out negates the usual 3 points for home court, which I think is optimistic; those guys would likely be worth more than 3 points above replacement combined in this game.

 

[aiw]

Two projected starters for the Blue Devils have been dealing with injuries during the preseason, and the top-ranked freshman in the 2022 recruiting class, Dereck Lively, is expected to make his debut against Jacksonville

 

[SeanMayTriedToEatMe]

Duke is favored by 17.

 

[SeanMayTriedToEatMe]

Line moved down to 15.5 overnight. That’s getting close to the territory of fairly common upset.

 

[DurhamSon]

 

[DrKlahn]

If you like a post like that it means you are happy that they are injured.

 

[rome8180]

Line moved down to 15.5 overnight. That’s getting close to the territory of fairly common upset.

Guessing that means Lively isn't playing.

 

[CK86]

It's both exciting and terrifying that I have no idea what to expect tonight. Go Duke!

 

[torontoduke]

Go Devils

 

[aiw]

 

[rome8180]

JFC.

Also, I forgot how miserable basketball season makes me. I've been anxious all day.

 

[Dukenation12]

Jon Scheyer’s career officially starts tonight!LETS GO DUKE NATION!!!

 

[rhfarmer]

We lost to a really good team tonight--

Jon Scheyer

 

[CK86]

I know we're only 4 minutes into the game but first impression is Flip does not look like a one and done.

 

[CK86]

Mitchell, on the other hand, looks terrific.

 

[DrKlahn]

ACC Network is still ass. Can’t wait to see our games on BTN