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Monday, November 7, 7:00pm ET, ACCN
Cameron Indoor Stadium
A new era begins for Duke against a classic Cinderella. Jacksonville has been picked to finish 2nd in the ASUN Conference (fka Atlantic Sun), and they check at least a few of the boxes for a low-seed midmajor you don't want to draw in the 1st round of the NCAA Tournament:
- Old and experienced - Their top 7 players are 5 seniors and 2 juniors. This includes 2 6th year seniors, a 5th year senior and a 5th year junior. Some of these guys were playing college basketball when Dereck Lively was in middle school.
- Dominant point guard - Kevion Nolan is by far their best player. 61% of his shots were 3s last season, and he made 37% of them. This was actually a down shooting season for him, after 44% 3pt over the prior two seasons. He also shot 91% ft last season. The obvious choice defensively is to chase him off the 3pt line and make him finish at the rim; he shot only 42% from there. The problem with that strategy is his playmaking; he had a 28% assist rate and 2.9 A/TO last season. There's a realistic scenario in which this guy looks like Steph Curry against an unseasoned Duke defense and puts up an efficient 25 and 8 in a stunning upset to spoil Scheyer's debut.
- Brutally slow tempo - They averaged the 3rd fewest possessions per game in the country last season, at under 62. Any random bad luck for Duke is going to be magnified.
A loss here would not be the worst loss of the past several seasons, judging by the expected Vegas line, but it might be the most concerning due to the conclusions that are going to be jumped to about Scheyer's abilities.