Game Thread [2022-23] NCAA Tournament

[torontoduke]

The balance you refer to in the last paragraph, which I agree the staff appear to be steering towards, is key.

 

[rhfarmer]

Or as the late, great McBoberts used to say, "tiers".

RIP

 

[rome8180]

The classes of 2022-2024, inclusive, just don’t seem to have those Zion/Paolo/Tatum/Bagley/Carter level talents.

At least that will hopefully mean that having the top NBA freshmen will be less of a must for winning it all. Unless I'm missing someone, Davion Mitchell and Agbaji were the only two first-round picks from the previous two champions. Seems like "experienced fringe NBA talent" works just as well for the most part.

Related, I actually thought this was pretty interesting:




Unless I'm missing someone, the only OADs here are Tyus, Winslow, and AD, and almost all of the rest were upperclassmen when they left. And each of the OADs were "stars in their role" types who arrived with a couple elite skills and fit in as complementary scorers, rather than high usage alpha types.

Obviously, your odds are still probably best if you can snag a Carmelo/Durant/AD/Zion type OAD when they come around, but it does drive home the importance in this era of threading the needle and finding guys who can develop into high-floor/low-ceiling NBA contributors but don't tantalize scouts with upside after inconsistently positive freshman years.

But just statistically, if you stay at a program multiple years, you increase your chances of winning a title.

 

[rome8180]

Everything else being equal, of course.

 

[Devilsforlife]

That 2019 UVA team had 5 current NBA players (with Kyle Guy also having a cup of coffee in the league) and needed the luckiest run ever to eke out a title. Bennett is NEVER winning another, good god.

 

[rome8180]

This does bring me back to a Thinking Basketball podcast I was listening to ranking the "Best NBA Careers." They had MJ third, after LeBron and Kareem. The reason was that even though he may have the greatest peak, he was hurt by lack of longevity. You can't add value or increase your team's championship odds by not playing. You're better off having a player who is only 60% of Jordan for four years than Jordan for one year.

This obviously ties into how we should think about college recruiting. And it's why players like Keels are so damaging. You don't get the LeBron-gevity or the Jor-dominance.

 

[bdotling]

Instead you get Prema-Keel Ejaculation

 

[rome8180]

The other point I was going to make about that list is that more recent title teams have an advantage. How many of those UVA players will realistically be in the league in the 2026-27 season? That's what it will take for them to be in the league the same number of years Tyus and Winslow have.

The really impressive list there is Nova. All of those guys except for Arcidiacono are high level contributors who will be in the league for as long as health permits it. The only other comparable one is Duke, but I would guess our guy's average recruiting ranking is way higher. And I don't expect Justise to last much longer, tbh.