Game Thread [2022-23] NCAA Tournament

[2001Dukechamps]

So Oral Roberts has the lowest TO rate in the country (13.1%) and plays the 6th fastest tempo in the NCAA tournament. This is definitely the type of team that could embarrass us under K.

 

[SeanMayTriedToEatMe]

Looking at the full S Curve, it seems the Committee did split the baby in an equitable way between UVA and Duke. You could argue they shouldn’t have done that and they should’ve just treated Duke as the better team, but assuming they justifiably had UVA and Duke very close to each other, the end result seems fair. The two obviously couldn’t be the 4/5 in the same region, so San Diego State slipped in between them.

The question then is which of the two placements UVA would’ve preferred and which one Duke would’ve preferred. I think if you asked Bennett, he would’ve wanted the 4 in the South, while if you asked Scheyer, he would’ve wanted the 5 in the East.

The opening rounds will be tougher for Duke, but I think Duke should have more of an all-or-nothing approach, whereas UVA should definitely be taking this whole thing one game at a time. If Duke loses to ORU or UT, they weren’t what people thought they were and they weren’t going to win the title anyway, so who cares? This non-threatening, mediocre UVA team might care about making an Elite Eight, whereas I think this Duke team’s goal is squarely set on a national title, with anything else being a letdown.

The middle rounds will be easier for Duke, as they’re being held in the most advantageous arena for Duke outside of Cameron, and Purdue is a significantly easier potential 1-seed roadblock for Duke than Alabama. Purdue is objectively 4 points worse than Bama on a neutral court. The 2s and 3s are also much weaker in Duke’s region than in UVA’s.

Anyway, good job by the Committee on this one, assuming there was actually a case to be made for UVA to be close to Duke in resume. The loss to ORU will be unfortunate, but it is what it is.

 

[mkvl04]

So Oral Roberts has the lowest TO rate in the country (13.1%) and plays the 6th fastest tempo in the NCAA tournament. This is definitely the type of team that could embarrass us under K.

Why do yall keep mentioning a coach who no longer coaches? Let that man retire in peace

 

[aiw]

I'm sure that post is upsetting him. Weird people would want to compare this year's team to the teams that came before it. No one ever does that.

 

[rhfarmer]

So Oral Roberts has the lowest TO rate in the country (13.1%) and plays the 6th fastest tempo in the NCAA tournament. This is definitely the type of team that could embarrass us under K.

Why do yall keep mentioning a coach who no longer coaches? Let that man retire in peace

Coach K, is that you?

 

[rome8180]

So Oral Roberts has the lowest TO rate in the country (13.1%) and plays the 6th fastest tempo in the NCAA tournament. This is definitely the type of team that could embarrass us under K.

Even under Scheyer, it's a brutal matchup. They also shoot incredibly well from all areas of the floor. And they take a lot of threes.

The fact that Kenpom has it as only a 3-point Duke win says a lot.

 

[rome8180]

My biggest solace is that I think some of their stats are inflated by their competition.

You know when Duke is playing the 250th best team in the country early in the year, and every single player on the roster looks great, and we're all furiously rosterbating? That's pretty much the kind of team Oral Roberts has played in every win in conference.

 

[SeanMayTriedToEatMe]

It’s pretty scary. ORU naturally plays the way an underdog should, allowing a lot of 3s and taking a lot of 3s. They also play incredibly fast. The #35 tempo is misleadingly low because their have the #1 TO rate offensively. They’re averaging so many possessions per game without turnovers inflating the numbers.

Mitchell, Filipowski and Lively will need to prove to be freak athletes who are as quick as ORU’s guys while being half a foot taller.

 

[LastHearth]

Yeah, pretty much agree with the general consensus here. ORU is a tough 12, but if we can't beat them then we weren't going to do anything anyway, and the rest of the draw is very reasonable and preferable to just about every other region.

So, all things considered, not bad and let's get it done.

 

[DurhamSon]

Intuitively seems like as an underdog that shoots threes you’d want to play incredibly slow and not fast? Otherwise the variance you are hoping for to put you over the top would seem mitigated by more possessions where’d you expect regression to the mean to benefit the more talented team.

I’ll say looking at Bart some more their low TO% actually seems real and not an artifact from playing garbage the last two months. I wonder if they are that good ball handlers or just never make any attempt to feed the post at all or let their big man do anything but catch lobs and wide open jump shots off a pass.

 

[StopThePumpFakesShav]

Anyway, this is a nice, stress-free tournament. Excluding 2021 (which we didn't make), can't remember the last time I felt stress free going into a tourney, either about us or having to root against UNC.

 

[Devilsforlife]

Yeah, UNC crashing and burning this year really lowered the stress levels in general. Had they backed up their #1 ranking by sweeping us, making another deep run in the tournament, and (god forbid) winning it all, the predicted “massive shift” in the rivalry may have actually come to fruition.

Instead, they didn’t reap any long lasting benefits from it. The ‘05 loss at the Dean Dome which signaled Roy’s “arrival” at UNC and helped fuel a title run, and the ‘06 senior night debacle which ushered in three years of misery were just so much more impactful than the 2022 backdoor sweep wound up being, especially given their failure to seal the deal against Kansas in the final.

 

[Inveigle]

 

[LastHearth]

I bet you the reason Duke was a 5 seed is that Bubba Cunningham spent the whole time trying to convince them to let UNC in the tournament, and didn't spend 2 secs advocating for Duke's seed.

 

[SeanMayTriedToEatMe]

My thoughts on ORU inviting lots of 3pt attempts and then playing super fast weren’t meant to be connected. It’s true that lots of possessions should help smooth out the variance. Duke should pound them inside and have faith that ORU won’t shoot 50%+ from 3 over 25+ attempts while Duke shoots 20% from 3. To a large extent, Duke will have no control over who wins this game.

 

[rome8180]

Can't believe we're about to get Oral.

 

[bfactor]

So Oral Roberts has the lowest TO rate in the country (13.1%) and plays the 6th fastest tempo in the NCAA tournament. This is definitely the type of team that could embarrass us under K.

Why do yall keep mentioning a coach who no longer coaches? Let that man retire in peace

Coach K, is that you?

As if he'd waste time posting here with us idiots when he could be hanging out with the Aflac duck.

 

[mkvl04]

I have confidence in this team cause of it's defense, but I also had confidence in last year team cause of its talent and offense. We'll see what happens. I believe last year team was overall better, so with that being said I don't see this team getting as far, but if they continue playing the defense they have and don't turn the ball over, they might be able to do it

We need Roach to step up in big moments though like last season to accomplish that

 

[SeanMayTriedToEatMe]

 

[dukebluedevils05]

I can tell which of those shots on Duke’s chart are from Whitehead.