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Bracketology

Xavier losing in the Big East quarterfinal against either SJU or Gtown would be good. Probably worth rooting for SJU over Gtown given they are 20 spots higher on Kenpom and would be playing that game in their home arena.
 
Given Xavier's overseed, I definitely wouldn't mind being their 2 in the Midwest, or ideally, get the 1 in the Midwest with them as our 2.
 
rhfarmer said:
dukeboy911 said:
Given Xavier's overseed, I definitely wouldn't mind being their 2 in the Midwest, or ideally, get the 1 in the Midwest with them as our 2.
Click to expand...
I'd rather be their 2 so K can play the disrespect card.
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K isn't good at playing cards like that. Some hot shooting 15 seed would call his bluff. 1 seed or bust. In my mind, we need to win the ACCT to be a lock. Anything else and too much is left to chance.
 
I said this a couple weeks ago and I'll say it again. I really want to avoid Michigan. They're probably a 3(should be a 2) now so maybe that helps but teams in that 4-6 range I wanted to avoid was:


1-Michigan
2-Florida
3-Kentucky
4-Nevada
 
CMon85 said:
I said this a couple weeks ago and I'll say it again. I really want to avoid Michigan. They're probably a 3(should be a 2) now so maybe that helps but teams in that 4-6 range I wanted to avoid was:


1-Michigan
2-Florida
3-Kentucky
4-Nevada
Click to expand...

If Duke is a projected 2 seed, why would it help if Michigan was a 3 seed?
 
I don’t follow this as much as others here. I think this is what we’re rooting for in the conference tournaments:

1. ACC - Duke wins. Doesn’t really matter who the opponents are. Duke seems to be a 1 if they win it.

2. Big East - Villanova wins. Obviously, both Villanova and Xavier losing would be great, but that’s tough to root for, since if you root against Villanova in any game, you’re basically rooting for Xavier to have a better chance to win the whole thing. Villanova over Xavier would avoid a lot of dumb scenarios, like Villanova being Duke’s 2-seed if Duke is fortunate enough to end up a 1-seed, and Xavier being UNC’s 1-seed while Duke is stuck in the East.

3. Big 12 - Anyone but fucking Kansas. Practically irrelevant to Duke which team takes them out. Literally anyone.

4. SEC - I guess Auburn or Tennessee could potentially move ahead of Duke on the S-Curve, but any Duke fan is going to root against Kentucky’s interests every step of the way, rational or not. The Michael Porter bullet can’t really be rooted for or against, since Missouri is in the 7-10 range and Duke could end up drawing them in round 2 no matter where they fall in that range.

5. American - I don’t know. Cincinnati falling to the 4-line is like Russian roulette for all the 1-seeds. Cincinnati rising to the 2-line might be safest for Duke, but then they might get priority for the Midwest over a Duke team that doesn’t win the ACCT, which could end up being Xavier’s very desirable region. I don’t think we care too much what happens here.

6. Pac-12 - No interest.
 
StopThePumpFakesShav said:
CMon85 said:
I said this a couple weeks ago and I'll say it again. I really want to avoid Michigan. They're probably a 3(should be a 2) now so maybe that helps but teams in that 4-6 range I wanted to avoid was:


1-Michigan
2-Florida
3-Kentucky
4-Nevada
Click to expand...

If Duke is a projected 2 seed, why would it help if Michigan was a 3 seed?
Click to expand...
Even if the committee wouldn't be dumb enough to put Nova, Duke and Michigan as the 1-2-3. That's a monster lineup.
 
Why do you guys really think winning the ACCT is going to get us that one seed? Is this assuming a major stumble from KU or Xavier, like first round conference tourney type of stumble? I don't see otherwise without something that drastic how we can account for such a disparity in Q1 record. Committee is on record on saying that don't even spend an hour discussing the bracket, as constructing it is rather formulaic, and not that much stock is put into conference tournaments assuming no opening round disasters like Duke vs. Maryland 2013.
 
Wouldn't KU's latest ass raping by Oklahoma St. have an impact on it?
 
Bracket Matrix went from:

KU 1.00
Duke 2.00

to:

KU 1.25
Duke 1.79
 
DurhamSon said:
Why do you guys really think winning the ACCT is going to get us that one seed? Is this assuming a major stumble from KU or Xavier, like first round conference tourney type of stumble? I don't see otherwise without something that drastic how we can account for such a disparity in Q1 record. Committee is on record on saying that don't even spend an hour discussing the bracket, as constructing it is rather formulaic, and not that much stock is put into conference tournaments assuming no opening round disasters like Duke vs. Maryland 2013.
Click to expand...

We would get a couple more Q1 wins along the way. And winning the ACCT might not mean as much as it used to, but it would still be an accomplishment that could tip the scale our way.
 
dukeboy911 said:
DurhamSon said:
Why do you guys really think winning the ACCT is going to get us that one seed? Is this assuming a major stumble from KU or Xavier, like first round conference tourney type of stumble? I don't see otherwise without something that drastic how we can account for such a disparity in Q1 record. Committee is on record on saying that don't even spend an hour discussing the bracket, as constructing it is rather formulaic, and not that much stock is put into conference tournaments assuming no opening round disasters like Duke vs. Maryland 2013.
Click to expand...

We would get a couple more Q1 wins along the way. And winning the ACCT might not mean as much as it used to, but it would still be an accomplishment that could tip the scale our way.
Click to expand...

I would agree if the committee didn't make it abundantly clear they don't put nearly as much stock into conference tournament games as they do regular season ones.

If anything I think we get screwed because of easy to glom on narratives like "regular season champion KU/Xavier" that don't take into account conference disparities.
 
DurhamSon said:
dukeboy911 said:
DurhamSon said:
Why do you guys really think winning the ACCT is going to get us that one seed? Is this assuming a major stumble from KU or Xavier, like first round conference tourney type of stumble? I don't see otherwise without something that drastic how we can account for such a disparity in Q1 record. Committee is on record on saying that don't even spend an hour discussing the bracket, as constructing it is rather formulaic, and not that much stock is put into conference tournaments assuming no opening round disasters like Duke vs. Maryland 2013.
Click to expand...

We would get a couple more Q1 wins along the way. And winning the ACCT might not mean as much as it used to, but it would still be an accomplishment that could tip the scale our way.
Click to expand...

I would agree if the committee didn't make it abundantly clear they don't put nearly as much stock into conference tournament games as they do regular season ones.

If anything I think we get screwed because of easy to glom on narratives like "regular season champion KU/Xavier" that don't take into account conference disparities.
Click to expand...

Yeah, I have no idea what this committee will do especially given this Q1 wins nonsense. Given that UVA is a 1 and we can't be with them, I really think this is all about avoiding Villanova. We are the East 2 in most brackets I've seen, while UNC's loss last night "dropped them" to the West 2. Makes a ton of sense.

I think SMMTEM's summary of rooting interests was good. I am also rooting for Arizona to win their tournament now. If we do end up as a 1, it could very well be out west, and it would be good to have Arizona play their way ahead of the 4 line so that they aren't a potential S16 matchup in a game on the west coast.
 
Duke is ahead of Kansas on 4 of the 5 rankings the Committee is using, including RPI. I don't understand why RPI Q1 record is trumping every other rational thought, including the system it's based on. How stupid.

Anyway, if Kenpom, Sagarin and all the other margin-based ratings are really superior as predictors, Kansas will lose before the finals of their tournament. So if Kansas rises above and proves better than these ratings say, there's not much to complain about.
 
It's because Kansas' resume fits so nicely with narrative. First, they are the biggest beneficiaries of the Quadrant 1/Quadrant 2 crap. Kansas and UNC have the most Quadrant 1 wins (and if UNC is leading in a metric, you know it is a good and important metric). Duke is not close when it comes to Quadrant 1. Second, they won the world's toughest conference outright in the regular season, and that gets sportswriter types horny. It's hard for that narrative not to carry over from the press to the committee itself.
 
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