College Basketball 2015-2016

[StopThePumpFakesShav]

Discuss.

I believe it will be the worst overall year for the sport since 2011 largely because of the relative weakness of the incoming freshmen class.

At the end of next year, UNC could have anywhere from three to six total NCAA titles.

 

[DurhamSon]

Maybe UCONN will find a way to field another worst of the last decade title team

 

[DurhamSon]

And i'm sure some teams will emerge that we're not even thinking about yet

 

[StopThePumpFakesShav]

Maryland and Iowa State will be good. I think Wichita State, just by virtue of keeping Van Vleet, Baker and their coach, are going to be top 10.

If Anderson sticks around, UVA should be preseason #1. Can't really justify voting anyone else preseason #1 if that happens. I think if Kansas keeps Perry Ellis, they are a top 5 team.

 

[rome8180]

Will UVA get further than the Sweet Sixteen this year?

To me, this is UNC's year. It's not that I think that they're that amazing. But I think that the competition will suck and that UNC will have the best combination of depth, talent, and experience.

 

[Slap the Floor]

And i'm sure some teams will emerge that we're not even thinking about yet

This is what I'm thinking. UVA, Maryland, North Carolina, Iowa State and a couple of others will be strong, but they aren't even in the same league as the top 5-6 teams from this past season. As a result of the top not being as strong as last season, there are definitely going to be a few teams that do what Notre Dame did this past season or what Miami did in 2012 and storm to the top out of nowhere.

 

[Slap the Floor]

Also, as much as it pains me to say this because Bo Ryan is a grouchy, sore losing son of a bitch, but Wisconsin should be good again next season. I realize they lose Kaminsky, Gasser, Dukan and Jackson and probably Dekker, but they will return Koenig and Nigel Hayes. With the way that system works, those two guys will take on the alpha role of the offense and like every single season, a couple of guys on their team will just come out of nowhere and start draining threes.

Wisconsin will be back to their typical self. Slow, plodding, and a lot of threes. The system works though, so they'll be alright, and Hayes and Koenig are good enough to make them B1G contenders next season. They'll flame out in the NCAA Tournament early like they used to before this group they just had, however.

 

[TyusStones5]

Bennett should just quit if he can't get past the Sweet 16 next season.

 

[childress22]

Gonzaga still will have a nice frontcourt with Wiltjer, Sabonis and Karnowski. The question will be whom do they have around the perimeter? Dranginis will probably start. They also have Eric McClellan, who only averaged two points for them after becoming eligible in January, but earlier averaged 14 pts, 4 rebs, 3 asts at Vanderbilt, so the talent is there. There's also Josh Perkins, who missed most of this year with a broken jaw.

I think Butler will be pretty good next year, too -- a Top 15 team. They return their top 3 scorers, who will all be seniors, in Dunham, Jones, and Chrabaszcz, and they add Tyler Lewis at point, who should be a big upgrade over Barlow.

 

[DrKlahn]

2016 will be an ABC season for sure. I expect them to start the year #1 and to play like a #1 team at times. That said, 2016 would be a good opportunity for an up and coming coach/program to get its first title.

 

[DrKlahn]

I believe it will be the worst overall year for the sport since 2011 largely because of the relative weakness of the incoming freshmen class.

For the same reason, I have to respectfully disagree with the above. The Bilas faction of the media will be swooning over a champion that plays fast and emphasizes those beautiful 12 foot turnaround jumpers.

 

[SeanMayTriedToEatMe]

My deep, deep, deep sleeper team would be Florida. Yes, THAT Florida.

Although they lose the indomitable Jon Horford to some New Zealand pro league and Michael Frazier to the D League, they keep everyone else. This is not a great thing, may not even be a positive thing at all, but returning almost your entire team in high major college basketball is always intriguing.

Their coach, whom the game has passed by in the past year, may leave for the NBA, in which case the Florida basketball program will be done for a while. I'm assuming Donovan stays.

With a bunch of human trash lit on fire to work with, Donovan pieced together the #11 defense in the country. This was in spite of some terrible luck, as Florida ranked 2nd to last in the country at defensive FT%. Compare this with another SEC team, Mississippi State, who finished 6th in the country in defensive FT%. I was unfortunate enough to have watched two Florida games last season, nearly in their entirety. The fact that Alex Murphy passed the eye test as a rather good defender is in contention for the greatest accomplishment of Donovan's career. With everyone returning except the intrepid Jon Horford and Michael Frazier, and with some better luck, I would expect Florida to be elite on defense again.

There is talent here, and Florida is as pro-analytics as anyone in college besides maybe Duke. Florida has finished top 20 in offense in 11 out of 14 seasons during the Kenpom era. Prior to last season, their worst offense was #28. Last season, with decent talent and with the same coaching, their offense finished #151, far behind Grand Canyon and Youngstown State. There were at least six players in Donovan's rotation who performed objectively, inarguably worse than Josh Hairston or Nick Pagliuca ever did on offense at Duke.

Kasey Hill will be a junior point guard who was a top 10 overall recruit out of high school. Chris Walker will be a junior forward who was a top 10 overall recruit out of high school. Senior Dorian Finney-Smith, junior Alex Muprhy, sophomore Chris Chiozza, sophomore Brandone Francis, sophomore Devin Robinson, sophomore John Egbunu, freshman KeVaughn Allen and freshman Noah Dickerson round out Donovan's collection of 4-star top 100 overall recruits. That's ten total.

Roy and Donovan will be competing next season to see who can go further with the two best rosters in the country, in terms of talent (out of high school), depth and experience. Donovan will be doing it with a proven track record of smart basketball but a bunch of players who are all currently giant busts.

 

[deeyoukayeee]

I agree about FL. Finished 45 in KP and 29th in Sagarin predictor. Reminded me a lot of Duke '95 by losing a boatload of 1 and 2 point games. If Walker doesn't do anything foolish - and starts to even scratch his potential - they could be very good.

Billy D has had one of the most interesting careers I've ever seen. Back in the late 90s/early aughts he was the recruiting wunderkind, reeling in truckloads of talent but with the exception of 2000, underperforming in the dance. Turned it all around with a modestly heralded crew of Brewer, Green, Horford and Noah. Has only occasionally struck gold in the ensuing years talent-wise, but has become a consummate team builder and talent developer. His career is eerily similar to that of his mentor Pitino.

Never understood why those guys - especially Donovan coming off the titles, and at a school like FL - seem to struggle so much on the recruiting trail these days. FL could use talent all over the floor, but not a single one of the dozen highly talented guys still unsigned has even glanced at them. And unlike Roy and Pitino, he has a very solid track record of developing players for the league. He's also younger, and if rumors are correct, willing to cut some corners.

 

[SeanMayTriedToEatMe]

If we all agree that Duke will have a top 10 defense led by Amile, Marshall and some long guys and K never fails to have a top 10 offense, then I would guess Duke will be overall top 3. Something in that equation is wrong, though, because Duke will not be overall top 3.

 

[TyusStones5]

I guess I hope Virginia or State wins it all. ABC!

 

[SeanMayTriedToEatMe]

ACC 2015-16 projections and basic player flow

1. North Carolina

2014-15 Kenpom final ranking: #11

Returning contributors (9): G Marcus Paige (sr), F Brice Johnson (sr), C Kennedy Meeks (jr), F Isaiah Hicks (jr), F Justin Jackson (so), G Nate Britt (jr), G Joel Berry (so), G Theo Pinson (so), C Joel James (sr)

Incoming players (1): F Luke Maye (*** fr)

Departing contributors (1): F JP Tokoto

2. Virginia

2014-15 Kenpom final ranking: #5

Returning contributors (8): G Malcolm Brogdon (sr), F Anthony Gill (sr), C Mike Tobey (sr), G Marial Shayok (so), G London Perrantes (jr), F Isaiah Wilkins (so), G Devon Hall (so), F Evan Nolte (sr)

Incoming players (3): C Jarred Reuter (*** fr), C Jack Salt (** fr), F Darius Thompson (*** so transfer)

Departing contributors (2): F Justin Anderson, C Darion Atkins

3. Duke

2014-15 Kenpom final ranking: #4

Returning contributors (4): G Grayson Allen (so), F Amile Jefferson (sr), G Matt Jones (jr), C Marshall Plumlee (sr)

Incoming players (5): F Brandon Ingram (***** fr), F Chase Jeter (***** fr), G Derryck Thornton (***** fr), G Luke Kennard (***** fr), C Sean Obi (** so transfer)

Departing contributors (4): C Jahlil Okafor, G Tyus Jones, F Justise Winslow, G Quinn Cook

4. Syracuse

2014-15 Kenpom final ranking: #59

Returning contributors (4): G Michael Gbinije (sr), G Trevor Cooney (sr), G Kaleb Joseph (so), F Tyler Roberson (jr)

Incoming players (5): C DaJuan Coleman (jr injured), G Malachi Richardson (**** fr), G Franklin Howard (**** fr), F Tyler Lydon (**** fr), C Moustapha Diagne (**** fr)

Departing contributors (1): C Rakeem Christmas

5. Notre Dame

2014-15 Kenpom final ranking: #9

Returning contributors (7): C Zach Auguste (sr), F Bonzie Colson (so), G Demetrius Jackson (jr), F VJ Beachem (jr), G Steve Vasturia (jr), C Martinas Geben (so), F Austin Torres (jr)

Incoming players (3): F Rex Pflueger (**** fr), F Matt Ryan (*** fr), F Elijah Burns (*** fr)

Departing contributors (2): G Jerian Grant, F Pat Connaughton

6. NC State

2014-15 Kenpom final ranking: #31

Returning contributors (8): G Trevor Lacey (sr), G Anthony Barber (jr), F Abdul-Malik Abu (so), F Kyle Washington (jr), F Cody Martin (so), F Caleb Martin (so), C Beejay Anya (jr), C Lennard Freeman (jr)

Incoming players (1): G Terry Henderson (*** jr transfer)

Departing contributors (1): G Ralston Turner

7. Pittsburgh

2014-15 Kenpom final ranking: #78

Returning contributors (6): G Jamel Artis (jr), C Michael Young (jr), G Josh Newkirk (jr), G James Robinson (sr), F Chris Jones (jr), F Sheldon Jeter (jr)

Incoming players (2): C Rozelle Nix (jr juco), G Damon Wilson (**** fr)

Departing contributors (1): G Cameron Wright

 

[Pantone287]

I hadn't quite realized how much of a disaster UVA is going to be in 2016-2017. Looks like this is their last year before some serious rebuilding.

 

[deeyoukayeee]

I think I'd put NCSU above ND and Miami in 6th. Probably have FSU next, size + XRM and Bacon. If Thomas had returned, they'd be a dark horse for top-5.

 

[SeanMayTriedToEatMe]

I didn't even look at Syracuse, because I assumed they weren't bringing anyone in, but then I saw they would be the 3rd most talented team in the league and slotted them 4th.

Once I got past NC State, I didn't want to think about the ACC anymore.

 

[childress22]

FSU should be an NCAA team. Pairing Rathan-Mayes with Dwayne Bacon, plus improvement from Phil Cofer, gives them a potent young nucleus. They have two 4-star wings besides Bacon coming in that should give them a deep, and decently tall perimeter. They just need one of their 7-foot stiffs to step up.