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Duke Basketball 2017-2018

I think this is the best front-court Duke has ever had. Bagley and Carter Jr are both unselfish, high IQ post players that provide length, size and athleticism. Bagley is just a freak athlete, and Carter Jr is more polished with his back to the basket. They compliment each other very well. Both are 'modern' enough that they aren't chained to the post, and both have very high motors and seem to enjoy rebounding and playing defense.

DeLaurier is a defensive juggernaut. His offensive game needs work, but he's a great athlete that can defend 1-5. He's a huge advantage because he can basically switch everything and not miss a beat. Very good rebounder, very high motor. Bolden is big as shit and has great measurables. I think Bolden off of the bench is fine. He has potential, and based on what we saw in the exhibitions he's gotten better. I'm interested to see how that translates into the season (or if).

Bagley and Carter Jr are a tremendous combination, and both are so much better than Okafor, for example.
 
In being cautious about drawing any conclusions from two early season games against 13-16 seed caliber opponents, there is one stat that jumps out to me anyway. It's way out of line with what Duke normally does, theoretically shouldn't be affected too much by opponent strength, and isn't based on a laughably tiny sample size, so I think there could be some staying power.

Duke is #85 in assist rate, with 59% of field goals made being assisted. If this continues, it will be Duke's highest ranking and rate for this stat since Kenpom started tracking these things. Usually, Duke is in the 200s, with a rate around 50%.

Watching the current offense stylistically is jarringly different compared with watching the past two seasons of Duke basketball in particular. Duke 2016 ranked 252 and Duke 2017 ranked 282 in assist rate. Both teams assisted on under 50% of their made field goals.

Assist rate isn't a key performance indicator. An aesthetically pleasing offense that moves the ball and sets teammates up isn't going to carry anyone to a great season. If given the choice between (a) 5 Kobes/Jordans trying to break down the best defense in the NBA in iso sets or (b) 5 Spurs passing back and forth to each other through that same defense until they can get an open shot, the Phil Jackson way has been equal or superior to the Popovich way when the individual talent mismatches are that good.

What the abnormally high assist rate tells us, though (if it lasts) is that these players can pass, are willing to pass, and enjoy passing to each other to get good shots. When it comes down to one possession in the clutch to win Duke's 1st round game, the game determining shot will probably be the best shot Duke can get, rather than the best shot the best player on Duke can get. That has always been the Brad Stevens way, and it hasn't typically been the Duke way. Duke stars simply enjoying having each other as teammates also has not been apparent in recent years.

On the other hand, Duke's free throw attempt rate is horrifically low through two games. 19%, while the historical norm for Duke is around 40%. Whether this is due to Duke's bad free throw shooters shying away from contact or this is due to a lack of ability to draw fouls, either one is really bad.

These guys are going to need to draw fouls down the stretch at least once in the NCAAT to pull out a close win. 15-25 from the line against a top defense is fine. It's an excellent 1.2 points per possession unadjusted, despite what may seem like a poor performance on high volume. It's the best way to maintain your efficiency against defenses that don't allow open shots.

Duke doesn't need to be great in this area - the past two national champs were both sub-200 in free throw attempt rate - but 19% is absurdly low. Villanova 2016 and UNC 2017 were both at around 34%.
 
I think the low FT rate is something that will change quite a bit when open/easy shots are taken away. There weren't many end of shot clock situations in last two games that I remember, which to me indicates our ball movement got the ball to open shooters/dunkers, with Duval and Grayson rarely having to drive to make something out of nothing.

Grayson in particular hasn't taken a free throw, and he averaged ~7 and ~5 FTA/G the last two years. When fast break dunks and wide open 3s are defended by better teams, that will start to shift his scoring opportunities to contested drives and lead to more FTs. Duval has taken 1 FT total, so I would also expect that to change as defenses get better. Derrick Rose took ~5 FTA per game, which is about where I'd expect Duval to end up (this is my best comp for Duval as of now, although slightly less athletic than D Rose and not as good a finisher).

I am more than a little concerned about Bagley's FTs (22% dear god) making him a little reluctant to try to bang bodies down low, but he seems like he'll be able to finish well with contact so they might just be a bunch of missed opportunities for 3pt plays. Carter seems to have better form, but I'll hold off on jumping to any conclusions for him for now.

So I expect the concerns re: FT rate to be somewhat alleviated as competition increases, especially if we have leads in games late where there are fouls, and Grayson should be taking and making those game-clinching shots (and maybe Gary will take some as well).
 
I watched replays on ESPN3 of your guys games. Fuck I think you guys have the potential to be on the level of a team like 2011- 2012 Kentucky.
 
Duke in transition this year (24% of possessions) - 1.558 ppp, 96th percentile

Duke in the half court (76% of poss) - 0.935 ppp, 64th percentile
 
Virginia is going to be a weird game if Duke can't just dominate the boards
 
Duke's odds to win the national championship are now 5/1
 
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uncy12 said:
I watched replays on ESPN3 of your guys games. Fuck I think you guys have the potential to be on the level of a team like 2011- 2012 Kentucky.
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Thanks for the sentiments. I agree the potential is there. Still not sure about our true depth but we have an extraordinary amount of talent.

In 2001, Shane Battier and Jay Williams were the two best players in college basketball (obviously a very rare thing for one team), and of course had a great "supporting cast". Understandably this is a very different team but once again we might have the two best players in the game with Allen and Bagley, who like Williams and Battier are surrounded by a lot of talent as well.

It'll be interesting to watch this team evolve.
 
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Has K found the cure to reverse senility? He went zone the entire game and used his entire bench in a close game against the #2 team in the country.

Fwiw this may be the best rebounding team K has ever coached..

They put up a defensive rebounding rate of 78.4% despite playing zone the entire game - against arguably the best frontcourt in College Basketball and a coach well-known for his emphasis on elite rebounding.
 
2001Dukechamps said:
Has K found the cure to reverse senility? He went zone the entire game and used his entire bench in a close game against the #2 team in the country.

Fwiw this may be the best rebounding team K has ever coached..

They put up a defensive rebounding rate of 78.4% despite playing zone the entire game - against arguably the best frontcourt in College Basketball and a coach well-known for his emphasis on elite rebounding.
Click to expand...

I blame Capel. He's been holding K back.
 
Due to the shot volume advantage, which Gasaway is big on, this should be the kind of team that doesn’t seem like it will ever lose no matter how unlucky the bounces are, how unfriendly the rims are or how hot the other team gets from 3. Massive rebounding advantage and smart passers (low turnovers) leads to so many more shots than the opponent, like the best Kentucky and UNC teams.

Duke had 15 more FG attempts and 11 more FT attempts than MSU, which will be one of the best rebounding teams Duke faces all season. Duke won the turnover battle 9-17.

Duke had 25 offensive rebounds. Bagley had 5 in 10 minutes before going out. Everyone gets in on this. This is insanity for a Duke team. The Master, indeed.
 
52 percent offensive rebounding %! 30 minutes of no Bagley. Izzo's teams have been top 100 defensive rebounding every year since '09. In most of those years, they're top 30-40 or better, albeit they had their worst year in this respect just last year, but still finished at 85 overall.

FYI- Duke has not sniffed the top 100 in defensive rebounding percentage since 2007 but they've had some pretty good (2015) to great (2010) offensive rebounding teams.
 
Man this is going to be weird when we play Carolina. We will annihilate them on the boards while they play pressure defense and jack up threes.
 
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