Duke Basketball 2017-2018

[rome8180]

Sounds more like we shouldn't post up period. Unfortunately, that is a key component of our offense. I guess we also have to look at how many second chance baskets we're getting out of them.

 

[LastHearth]

Duke's ability to turn the opponent over from 2002 to 2018. Which pretty much mirrors our defensive decline overall, and might be the primary reason why our defense declined. We used to give up layups with our defense but we also turned the other team over a lot and got a bunch of layups of our own. Now days we pretty much just give up layups.

 

[Devilsforlife]

I think this further reinforces how antiquated K's defensive system is. The type of rosters he puts on the floor aren't the only difference, the game has changed as well. The overplay defense worked when Duke had experienced players who knew the system and most other teams lacked the ball handlers needed to combat it. Now, Duke's rosters have about the same amount of youth and continuity as Kentucky and we are in the small ball era where more players are able to handle the ball without coughing it up. So the defense, which was top-10 for most of K's career, simply doesn't work very well in 2017.

 

[DurhamSon]

The odd thing is, the median Turnover% for Division I isn't that different than it was (19.3% now, 21.7% then) in 2002. That's ~1 possession difference per game. So it's not like teams learned to protect the ball better.

Didn't stop Pitino's teams from turning opponents over during that span, either.

 

[SeanMayTriedToEatMe]

The defense is weird and somewhat incomprehensible this season. On paper, it looks like they're doing exactly what we've been begging for over the past several years: packing it in more, extending to the arc less, staying at home without gambling to protect the rim and box out.

Top 100 in 2pt% allowed for the first time since 2011. Top 50 block% for the first time since 2006. 4th best defensive rebounding% in Kenpom history. Sub-100 in 3pt% allowed for only the 4th time in Kenpom era. One of the very worst defensive turnover rates in the country. It all points to a more conservative defense that tries to be fundamentally sound without opening itself up to breakdowns with missed rotations, rather than the usual idealistic defense that aims for high turnovers and high rim protection and high 3pt prevention. Most strikingly, in Kenpom era, the worst Duke has finished in 3pt attempt rate allowed is #24. This Duke team is currently #181.

The justification to still hate K and his defensive scheme this season is that these numbers are all heavily skewed by the amount of zone Duke has played, so the man to man defense is still probably K's overextending garbage, but without generating turnovers at all. I don't know what the breakdown of zone vs. man to man possessions has been, but Kenpom seems to agree with this to some extent, since Duke's defensive fingerprint is "Inconclusive" for the first time ever. It has always been "Mostly Man" before this season.

Also throwing all of this off is Duke being #265 in FG% allowed at the rim on hoop-math. So maybe they're not protecting the rim at all, or maybe they're breaking down so badly that a lot of shots at the rim are uncontested layups, as would be normal for a recent Duke defense. Duke is crushing non-layup 2-pointers, at #23 FG% allowed on those shots.

I have no conclusions from this. Seems like more of a work in progress than any other Duke season. No identity yet. IMO, this is preferable to having an identity of giving up layups.

 

[deeyoukayeee]

Gotta say, I'm OK with residing in between packline and layupline stylistically.

 

[StopThePumpFakesShav]

I do like that the defense is a topic of conversation in the media with this Duke team early in the year. As was pointed out on another thread, the defense doesn't usually reveal itself as horrible until January when we go on a losing streak. But this year, K has been forced to at least confront the issue in post-game press conferences and just by virtue of even greater attention on the pre-season #1 team. And I suspect that behind the scenes, it is actually being worked on aggressively.

Last year, we may have been just as in the spotlight, but nobody was talking about the defense as the weakness yet. It was all about cohesion given the injuries. In fact, until conference play started, Duke had only given up more than 1pt per possession twice in 13 games, and it was pretty excusable- 1.05 to Kansas and 1.04 to Florida. This year, it's already happened 5 out of 11 times, including to Portland State and South Dakota.

It's obviously not good that it's worse this year vs. last, but I'm running with the hope that hitting rock bottom this early could force K's hand to make more drastic changes earlier in the year.

 

[bdotling]

But wut about in the last 4 min tho

 

[rome8180]

It does seem like K is a little more dialed in this year.

 

[TS9]

I assume he feels better physically and he realizes he shoulders plenty of (but not all) blame for last year's fucked-up situation.

 

[SeanMayTriedToEatMe]

Updated ranking of players Duke can least afford to lose to injury:

1. Gary Trent
2. Marvin Bagley

 

[rome8180]

It does seem like K is a little more dialed in this year.

Lol at this.

 

[rome8180]

Assuming 20+ more games left in the year, that is roughly 50 hours of my life I can save by not watching. That is roughly a quarter of a short novel written, a full paid work week plus 10 hours, 200 times jerking off (depending on average jerk speed), 25 movies watched, etc. So many worthy choices.

 

[rome8180]

 

[rome8180]

If I had written this it would have addressed K's coaching failures more, but still good.

 

[torontoduke]

I wanted to write about how I felt the Devils would bounce back.

Nevermind. Lol

 

[aiw]

 

[aiw]

 

[aiw]

 

[torontoduke]

Turrible.