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Duke Basketball 2020-2021

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My roster prediction:

Starting Five:

PG: Jeremy Roach
SG: DJ Steward
SF: Wendell Moore
PF: Jalen Johnson
C: Matthew Hurt

Bench (In order of who I think gets the most bench minutes):
Jordan Goldwire, Henry Coleman, Jaemyn Brakefield, Mark Williams

I think we will have a 9 man rotation with the bench guys all getting steady minutes.

From a coaching standpoint, I think we need to continue to see things that we saw from this season. Given how many new players we add to the roster every year, I think we must continue to play a rotation of 9 guys, and I think we need to be multiple defensively. We started seeing it more of it at the end of the season. Mix in some 2-3 zone, and mix in some zone press.

Mixing in 2-3 zone has to continue to allow us to have a combination of serviceable defense and good offense. For example, assuming Mark Williams isn't a Javin where he's borderline uncoordinated, can't catch, and can't dribble without traveling, he could probably give us 10-15 minutes a game and be a nice piece for us defensively in the middle of the 2-3 zone. He's 7'0 and is regarded as a good shot blocker with a very high motor and a very good rebounder, yet pretty raw offensively. Sounds like someone who would be very helpful giving Duke minutes at the 5 in the 2-3 zone and setting screens on offense. There are multiple line-ups which could work with him at the 5, but we could roll with: Roach/Goldwire-Steward-Jalen Johnson-Matthew Hurt-Mark Williams. Seems like a nice blend of offense and defense.

Instead of doing this we will probably Hurt get abused inside and Mark Williams roasted in ball screens, but at least this year and some recent seasons give us hope that the staff will turn to some zone, so not all hope is lost.
 
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Since I have nothing to do and can do my work later, I will provide some write-ups on each incoming freshman.

Jalen Johnson: He's listed as a 6'9 215lb small forward, but given our roster next season we should expect him to play the 4, but I don't really think he will operating in the post much. He's very skillful and seems to be a good passer with a high IQ. He seems like a point forward. Him playing the 4 seems to make sense because he's strong and he's a good rebounder. He averaged 9 rebounds per game over the summer. He's a terrible shooter, which is very worrisome. on 96 attempts over the summer he shot 64% from the FT line, and on 55 attempts he shot 20% from 3. We've had a lot of bad shooters enter Duke recently- Duval, Tre Jones, and RJ Barrett- this guy projects as the worst, however, he really is a very good playmaker and skilled with the ball in his hands. I'm not great at comparisons, but considering his point forward skills and his terrible shooting, I guess the best comparison for him is Ben Simmons. At LSU he averaged 19ppg, 11 rebounds, 5 assists. He shot 33% from 3 on 3 attempts, and 67% from the FT line on 297 attempts. Best case scenario here IMO is a poor man's version of Ben Simmons. Considering he's not as talented, he will have less usage than Simmons, and we have on paper more talent and better coaching than LSU, I think a 15ppg, 8 rebounds, and 3 assists per game from Jalen Johnson would very good. I won't project his shooting as I have no idea but I'm expecting <30% from 3 and <68% from the FT line.

Jeremy Roach: Without taking stats & skills into account, right off the bat it appears as if we are getting a very physical, tough point guard who is very good on defense. He also suffered I believe an ACL tear during high school, which is worrisome, but all recent highlights show that it doesn't appear it is bothering him. This is a huge concern entering next season but fortunately we have a senior Goldwire backing him up, DJ Steward might be able to play some PG, and Jalen Johnson is a point forward. So in the event of Roach re-injuring his knee, we appear to be well covered to handle the PG spot both offensively and defensively. He is graded very highly as a passer and also for his ability to get into the paint. This is encouraging, IMO, because it signals he can break the defense down and create opportunities for kick-out threes. @rome8180 deserves credit for the best comparison to date for Roach, which IMO is Kyle Lowry. The stats from over the summer aren't great because I believe they were careful with his minutes due to his ACL, but, he shot 35% from 3 on 26 attempts and he shot 66% from the FT line on 56 attempts. I really like Roach entering next season- I just wish the ACL injury wasn't in the mix. I think he'll be a good PG for us if he can stay healthy. He also committed extremely early, which hopefully has helped his development with the staff communicating with him what they think he should be working on.

DJ Steward: He's listed as a 6'4 combo guard from Chicago who shoots the ball very well. Over the summer he shot 39% from 3 on 97 attempts, and he shot 83% from the FT line on 76 attempts. He apparently is skill enough to play some point guard but is considered to be best used off-ball as a scorer. On 247 his NBA comparison is Reggie Jackson from the Detroit Pistons. Based on what I've seen, it appears he plays under control with a nice change of pace and direction, which IMO should help translate to low turnovers and being effective at getting to the basket. His composite ranking is #24. I personally think he will start, but I could also see a scenario in which he's the 6th man off the bench and Roach-Goldwire is the starting back-court. Neither scenario would surprise me.

Mark Williams: Listed at 7'1 and 225lbs he played this past year at IMG Academy. I can't speak in detail on how much players improve there, but in theory one would hope this helped accelerated his development both skill wise and physically by getting a jump-start with proper dieting and strength & conditioning. Over the summer he averaged 15ppg and 9 rebounds. He shot 57% from the FT line on 82 attempts which will likely make him unplayable at the end of close games. 247 compares him to Thomas Bryant of the Washington Wizard, and they write that, "Has a nice blend of length, strength and mobility for a big man. Good athlete who plays with a tremendous motor. Can defend multiple positions in multiple areas on the court. Is a shot-blocking threat who is a dangerous rebounder." This sounds nice, and if he is actually a good shot blocker, good rebounder and has a high motor, I think it would be impossible to not find playing time for someone with those traits who is 7'1. I expect him to only score on dunks off drop off passes and on offensive rebounds, but if he's actually good defensively it's a huge boost to an otherwise small team.

Jaemyn Brakefield: He seemingly committed to us out of nowhere and his recruitment publicly came across as if we jumped in late. We beat out Auburn, Michigan, and Louisville for this left handed 4-star wing from West Virginia. By everything I've seen and read, it appears as if he's a good scorer. He is 6'8 and plays on the perimeter. He shot 31% from 3 on 48 attempts, and 76% from the FT line on 59 attempts, which seems encouraging. He has gotten knocked for not always playing with a high motor, which means he will either be a disaster here, or his motor will be a non-issue and he'll just fit in fine once he gets into the program. We've had other players who came in with apparent motor issues who turned out fine- Brandon Ingram and Vernon Carey. I don't expect his motor to be an issue, and therefore think he will outplay his ranking, since a lot of the concerns regarding his game seem to stem from there.

Henry Coleman: He's listed as 6'8 and 240lbs. He's a good athlete and very strong, which hopefully he will be able to adequately defend opposing 5's while also being able to guard guys on the perimeter. Offensively I'm not entirely sure what to expect, but he comes across as a guy who could be very valuable defensively for his potential ability to defend the 3-5 and do it at a high level. His comparison from 247 is Nassir Little, which on the surface sucks. However, if you consider that Coleman will enter without the top 5, one and done mentality of Nassir Little, and will likely play within himself and without the expectations of receiving certain minutes or shots, this is a comparison I feel really good about. A good, strong athlete, capable of defending multiple positions at a high level on defense while being low usage offensively sounds promising. I can't find reliable stats on him, but he seems like a really nice multiple year player that can be able to positively contribute as a freshman.
 
If K doesn't make the Final Four in 2021, it will be the longest drought of his career, exceeding 80-86 and 04-2010.
 
Let's get some discussions going since we will all be inside for the next few weeks.

Wendell Moore: Does anyone think this guy will actually improve next year? In order to improve he needs to significantly reduce his turnovers and improve his shooting. He is shooting 21% from 3 on very low volume, but he is shooting 81% from the FT line.

Matthew Hurt: Can this guy put on enough strength to improve next year? When you look at him he comes across as one of those people who just will always be skinny. He has a small frame. He doesn't need to be jacked, but he needs to adds strength and probably 15lbs of it between now and next season. Since our season is over right now hopefully he can get 2-3 weeks head start on eating everything in sight.

Joey Baker/O'Connell: Is there a place in this program for either one or should they just transfer? If you had to choose one moving forward who would you choose?
 
Is there any chance at all Cassius Stanley returns next season? If he returns I think I would immediately put us as a top 5 team and legitimate National Championship contender. His return would give us the best and deepest back-court in the country, sporting a great blend of shooting, experience, athleticism, and defense with all 4 back-court guys really offering different skillsets.

Roach-Stanley-Moore-Johnson would really be a exciting core to build around. All athletic and versatile, and Stanley and Moore provide experience (assuming Moore actually gets better and isn't a shithead next year). Then off the bench you have Goldwire and Steward, which IMO is a GREAT back-court tandem to be bringing in.

I think Stanley should probably go to the NBA, but man it would be nice to be fortunate in back to back years and have Stanley return like Jones did. It would be a game changer, and IMO it would be the exact boost next year's team needs because I think similar to this past recruiting class, it lacks that little extra at the top. I think Stanley is the missing piece next year, and it has a chain effect on the entire roster. We bring in a guy who will probably average roughly 15-16ppg into the starting line-up, and we shift Steward onto the bench which strengthens the bench and allows him to just shoot off the bench and grow into a role at Duke, and it probably ensures Steward returns to Duke for the 2021 class where he will fit perfectly as an experienced starting SG next to Griffin.

Stanley returning to Duke could have a ripple effect beyond just next season. I pray he comes back but I don't expect him to. @sjsj2448 please convince me this will happen. In this time of chaos in our world I need some light. Please.
 
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Slap the Floor said:
Is there any chance at all Cassius Stanley returns next season? If he returns I think I would immediately put us as a top 5 team and legitimate National Championship contender. His return would give us the best and deepest back-court in the country, sporting a great blend of shooting, experience, athleticism, and defense with all 4 back-court guys really offering different skillsets.

Roach-Stanley-Moore-Johnson would really be a exciting core to build around. All athletic and versatile, and Stanley and Moore provide experience (assuming Moore actually gets better and isn't a shithead next year). Then off the bench you have Goldwire and Steward, which IMO is a GREAT back-court tandem to be bringing in.

I think Stanley should probably go to the NBA, but man it would be nice to be fortunate in back to back years and have Stanley return like Jones did. It would be a game changer, and IMO it would be the exact boost next year's team needs because I think similar to this past recruiting class, it lacks that little extra at the top. I think Stanley is the missing piece next year, and it has a chain effect on the entire roster. We bring in a guy who will probably average roughly 15-16ppg into the starting line-up, and we shift Steward onto the bench which strengthens the bench and allows him to just shoot off the bench and grow into a role at Duke, and it probably ensures Steward returns to Duke for the 2021 class where he will fit perfectly as an experienced starting SG next to Griffin.

Stanley returning to Duke could have a ripple effect beyond just next season. I pray he comes back but I don't expect him to. @sjsj2448 please convince me this will happen. In this time of chaos in our world I need some light. Please.
Click to expand...

Cassius returning to Duke seems pretty unlikely to me given that he's turning 21 soon and will definitely test well at the combine and was pretty solid this year.

Maybe this high-flyer from Los Angeles just loves Duke and the chance to shine in an NCAA tournament THAT MUCH.

But I would put the nonzero percentage odds under 10%.
 
Slap The Floor: Almost all of our incoming recruits can’t shoot. They are dogshit at shooting the basketball.

Also Slap The Floor: Should Alex O’Connell and Joey Baker transfer? Our program would be better off without these white pieces of shit taking up space.
 
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Roach-Stanley-Moore-Johnson is a disgusting shooting lineup. K can't coach defense or run creative actions on offense well enough to offset that. To be fair, most coaches would struggle to overcome 32% team three-point shooting (my rough estimate). Steward needs to be out there, assuming he's as advertised. Hurt should also be out there if he returns.

It's unclear whether Baker or AOC will be able to consistently hit open threes, but there's a role for them if they can.
 
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