Duke Basketball 2020-2021

[rome8180]

We are 45% from three as a team over our last six games. We are now up to 37.5% in conference play, which is 3rd in the conference.

This is the one part that feels like fools gold

Some of it is, for sure. Hurt is not going to shoot 73% from three forever. But I do think it's reasonable to assume we've improved, what with DJ turning into the shooter he was supposed to be and Roach not being terrible from there. I think the 37.5% is about accurate of where we should be.

On the plus side, it's our defense that's winning games as much as our offense. That seems more real, especially with Williams getting more minutes. And it's not like opponents have simply been missing threes. They've been shooting 39.5% during this stretch, which is just flukiskly high. We've been getting really unlucky there, so our defense could look even better if opponents start missing some of those shots.

 

[DurhamSon]

Outside UVA we've been winning by margins that it wouldn't have mattered if we were shooting 45% from three or under 30. I'm not that worried.

 

[rome8180]

Unfortunately, DMBB didn't seem to get the message that we want Mark to stay another year.

 

[SeanMayTriedToEatMe]

Defense has been significantly better in the recent “without Jalen” games, but not by enough to put Duke anywhere close to elite. Something like 99 adjusted efficiency with and 95 without. Hopefully the 95 without Jalen is being bogged down by bad luck in 3pt defense. The improvement is especially impressive given Jalen’s great individual defensive numbers. They are overcoming his individual defensive positives and then some. Most of Duke’s improvement has been on offense, which has been top 10 without Jalen. Some of that is good luck in 3pt offense, but we should expect significant improvement merely by virtue of removing such a high usage/moderate efficiency player.

I don’t know if Duke can make its without Jalen numbers looks close enough to Gonzaga’s to make being the best team in the country a realistic goal for this season. It’s nice that this isn’t absolutely ludicrous to even think about, as it was with Jalen. It’s within the realm of possibility that all this talent comes together, starts making shots at an elite level, and relies on Mark to play a more reasonable and effective defensive scheme, perhaps landing as a top 5 team coming out of the ACCT.

 

[childress22]

The offense has been really good of late. Torvik says our adjusted offensive efficiency over the last 10 games is 122.8 (good for sixth over that span), but not only does that include a lot of games with Jalen, the earliest 4 games in that span include three pretty bad ones (112 or lower).

As SMTTEM mentioned, the defense has been more modestly better, but the improvement seems more dramatic because the 3 games right before NCSU (Miami, UNC, ND) were our three worst defensive games of the year. The last 4 games have been way, way better than that three game stretch.

 

[Slap the Floor]

I think one of the reasons the defense has improved so much is because the offensive turnover % has dramatically decreased.

 

[bdotling]

How much of the offense being better has been Matt shotting 70% from 3? Like if that came down to Earth - where do you all see us?

 

[rhfarmer]

Dumpster

 

[dukeboy911]

How much of the offense being better has been Matt shotting 70% from 3? Like if that came down to Earth - where do you all see us?

It's bound to come down, but I'd still say we control our destiny for the 4 seed in the ACCT.

 

[rome8180]

So last year Duke had players with the ACC POY, DPOY, and ROY despite finishing only 4th in the conference. I would argue our players deserve all three of those awards this year as well (Jurt, Goldmember, and DJ Jazzy Stew).

 

[dukeboy911]

The conference really is down when those guys are potential award winners

 

[rome8180]

Or they're just good. Hurt is shooting like 90% from everywhere and Goldwire is averaging 2.5 steals in only 29 minutes.

The only one you might have a point about is Steward. He leads the conference in freshman scoring. Probably wouldn't most seasons.

 

[dukeboy911]

I'm talking in a historical context. Obviously it's mainly due to the OAD rule, because a guy like Matt Hurt shouldn't even be in the same ballpark as say someone like '01 Shane Battier or '06 JJ or '11 Nolan.

I know I've harped on this ad nauseam, but college basketball is just dreadful compared to what it once was. Maybe one day we'll see a resurgence.

 

[Devilsforlife]

So last year Duke had players with the ACC POY, DPOY, and ROY despite finishing only 4th in the conference. I would argue our players deserve all three of those awards this year as well (Jurt, Goldmember, and DJ Jazzy Stew).

The Master simply does not have the pieces on his roster to compete for ACC regular season titles.

 

[Inveigle]

 

[Devilsforlife]

Finished the year with 5 home losses. Most since 1994-95.

 

[rome8180]

I assume our spirit is broken and we lose out now.

 

[rome8180]

So I may be too much a prisoner of the moment, but I'm less high on next year's team than I was. Obviously, we'll be a lot better than this year. But I think there might be a hard ceiling on the team due to lack of good point guard play. I just think back to 2017 and 2018 and how those teams had everything but someone who could run the offense. The result was a lot of Grayson walking the ball up the floor followed by isos.

 

[SeanMayTriedToEatMe]

If there were ever an offseason for a national title contender to find a point guard on the transfer market to patch up its one biggest weakness, this would be it. Of all the positions, this is the easiest to find a guy without the measurables to go pro anywhere decent, but who has the head and the experience to be a low usage floor general for a talented team. Now you have an expanded pool due to the COVID extra year.

Duke’s major weakness for next season is incredibly easy to fix for any coach who wants to fix it. The loss of Goldwire and the lack of any point guards on the recruiting radar should push a sensible or merely sane coach to at the very least find someone to share the responsibility with Roach next season. The additional step of finding someone who would be better than Roach next season isn’t really an additional step at all, as long as you don’t inexplicably target someone who is extremely bad at basketball.

It would be infuriating and bizarre for K not to find some 5th year senior point guard to transfer in for next season. He can frame it however he wants to protect Roach’s psyche, but the fact is basically any average senior starter across midmajors is going to probably be better than a sophomore Roach.

One example is Jacob Gilyard at Richmond, who has no pro expectations at 5-9, shoots 36% 3pt/81% ft for his career, has a 2.5 ast/to and 17% usage this season, and will almost certainly repeat as A10 DPOY with one of the highest steal rates in the country. It would be extremely easy to plug him into next year’s offense and have him spearhead the defense for a bunch of freshmen with the usual steep learning curve in Duke’s defensive system.

Isn’t it worth it to at least reach out to someone like that to see if he might want to play on national TV all season for a championship contender while getting a free master’s degree from Duke, rather than starting a pro career in Taiwan?

 

[rhfarmer]

This guy is reigning POY in his conference? How could K have enough time to break him down and build him back up again to reach his potential as a man?