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Duke Men's Basketball 2013-2014 Discussion Thread

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Discuss next year's team.

If you do minute projections for next year's team, you deserve to be baned and sent back to TDD.
 
Starting lineup is Cook/Sheed/Hood/Parker/x. X here equals some combo of Hairston, Jefferson and Marshall. Best case scenario is that Marshall actually doesn't suck. If he does, I like Jefferson the most in that lineup.

Healthy dose of Thornton, backing up positions 1-3. Murphy backs up Hood (though Parker maybe also plays some three). Semi and Matt Jones see very few minutes as freshmen.

I realize this is dangerously close to minutes projection.
 
Defense should be overplay, but more effective than in recent years (though it is very effective this year with Ryan).

Hope offense plays slightly faster. Rebounding should be at least equal to this year, but probably better. We lose 10 rebs at the center position, which is big, but we improve at positions 2-4. Sheed better than Curry, Hood better than Sheed, Parker better than Kelly. If we can get something from the center position we should be okay. That, along with offense, is why I prefer Jefferson to Hairston. Hairston will still probably have the edge in team defense though.

That team has the potential to be better than this year's team, which is saying a lot. However, we shouldn't underestimate how good our seniors are. Next year's seniors will be great leaders, but they are mainly hustle role players. There's a strong value to having three seniors who also happen to be able three of the best players in the country.
 
After watching this team perform with and without Ryan Kelly, I'm not entirely convinced that next year's team will be even better than this year's team. Kelly's impact on offense (particularly on Mason Plumlee) makes him an amazing player.

Like Lhys suggested, perhaps we're underestimating the value of 3 seniors (one of whom is a 5th year player).

- I'm hoping that Cook will have a Nolan Smith-like sophomore to junior jump in performance but I'm not counting on it.
- I expect Rasheed to be better but he needs to be more consistent. I expect to see that from him. He just seems far too mature and savvy to not get better in that regard. It would be great if he could become a strong, dominating defender.
- I think Rodney Hood will have a very good (bordering on great) season. I expect him to be efficient because he should be able to pick his spots.
- I think expectations will (unfairly) be sky high for Jabari Parker. After being compared to Carmelo, some Duke fans will undoubtedly expect Jabari to have a fantastic season that culminates with a run to the National Championship. I don't want to set expectations too high for Jabari but I expect Jabari to do better than Barnes did as a freshman at UNC. If nothing else, I expect Jabari to be considerably more efficient on offense and noticeably better on defense.
- The question is undoubtedly the C position and I don't know what to expect from it since our coaches don't seem very confident in Marshall.

- The bench will be composed of mostly 3rd year players led by senior PG Tyler Thornton.Then there's senior PF Josh Hairston, redshirt sophomore SF Alex Murphy, redshirt sophomore C Marshall Plumlee, and sophomore PF Amile Jefferson. This experienced group is supplemented by freshman SG Matt Jones and freshman SF/PF Semi Ojeleye.

That seems like a pretty deep bench. Could the coaches be forced to play Ojeleye at the C position as an undersized player? (I ask because someone here mentioned that he had grown to 6'8".)

I just hope that Amile Jefferson bulks up a lot this offseason so that he can play the 5 spot as a converted PF. 2013-2014 Duke could probably dominate with a Dante Cunningham-like (6'8", 230 pounds) at the 5 spot.




Edit: Fixed. Thanks aiw.
 
Well, Cook as a sophomore is far better than Nolan as a sophomore. So he doesn't have to make that kind of jump. Sheed should be one of the best guards in the league, if not the country.

A lot of the other players are unknowns though. Definitely not expecting Carmelo out of Jabari. I'd be more than happy with Deng (so yeah, better than freshman Barnes).
 
rome8180 said:
Well, Cook as a sophomore is far better than Nolan as a sophomore. So he doesn't have to make that kind of jump. Sheed should be one of the best guards in the league, if not the country.

A lot of the other players are unknowns though. Definitely not expecting Carmelo out of Jabari. I'd be more than happy with Deng (so yeah, better than freshman Barnes).
I think sophomore Quinn Cook has outperformed sophomore Nolan Smith because Cook is playing his natural position at PG. IIRC, Coach K and his staff tried to make Nolan into the PG for the 2009 season but Smith was more of a combo guard comfortable with scoring rather than creating for teammates or running the offense.

And I expect Jabari to put up slightly better stats than Luol did as a freshman. Maybe I'm expecting too much but I expect Jabari to shoot at or near 50% from the field. Something about his smooth/fluid game just suggests to me that he'll be able to score easily and efficiently.
 
These Collins to Northwestern rumors are starting to gain momentum it seems
 
On a scale of Andre Dawkins to Kyrie irving how well can Rodney Hood handle the ball
 
Here is a great piece on the Heat, and a quote that I've been thinking about for next year's Duke team:
http://www.grantland.com/story/_/id/909 ... ate-league

And now the Heat, a super-team that for two years was prone to puzzling and inexcusable bouts of stagnancy on offense. No more. Miami is a pass-happy team that whips the ball around the floor, shifts bodies all over the place in carefully coordinated motion sets, gobbles up the most efficient shots available, and generally destroys opposing defenses in a way that is both visually pleasing and nothing like how they played in the past. League observers used to talk about Orlando's four-out/one-in system, with four shooters surrounding Dwight Howard in the post or on the pick-and-roll. Miami and Erik Spoelstra have one-upped that by often playing a five-out system, with all five guys moving around the 3-point arc as the Heat run through a series of rehearsed actions while hunting for gaps in the defense. It's a system Miami settled upon through organic internal growth, free-agent signings, injury-related improvisation, and the study of everything from college football to NCAA basketball to high-profile international hoops teams.

The Heat in 2010-11 were an ultratalented team that took all that talent and played just like everyone else. The Heat in 2012-13 are a team that has developed a deep understanding of its talent and crafted a system around that talent; they no longer play like everyone else, something coaches, scouts, players, and front-office executives confirmed in conversations with Grantland over the last few weeks. Post-2010 free-agency signings explain some of the evolution, especially the acquisitions of Ray Allen and Shane Battier. The latter stands as perhaps the most impactful non-star signing any team has made in that stretch; Battier has both allowed Miami to play small ball more often by taking on power forwards and contributed to the team's increased emphasis on 3-point shooting. The 2010-11 Heat ranked 10th in both corner-3 attempts and midrange shots; only Houston has taken more corner 3s this season, and Miami ranks toward the bottom of the league in midrange shots, per NBA.com.

Bosh almost never posts up anymore; he attempted 294 shots via the post in 2010-11, but has attempted just 116 such shots this season, per Synergy Sports. The lion's share of post attempts now go to Wade and James, a development that has allowed Miami to give the real estate under the basket to its two best passers.

The parallels are obvious but depend mostly on a complete unknown - whether Jabari Parker can be even remotely equivalent to Lebron James relative to the competition next year. He will not have a 30+ PER. He will not be the greatest college player of all time. But can he be something even in the same realm as Lebron in the Duke offense, to the point where comparing the two is not a complete joke? Cook can be NBA Chalmers. Sulaimon will be told by the coaches that transforming his game like Oladipo (much less midrange, more 3s and layups) could lead to results like Olapido's. Hood can be bizarro poor man's Battier - a 6'8" versatile defender and solid rebounder who hits 40% from 3. And then Josh Hairston. :(

Can they just become a very bad version of Miami's 5-out offense? Because a very bad version of Miami's offense is still very good.
 
Send that article to K.

However, I like the Sheed midrange shot. I know there's good advanced metrics to persuade me it's a bad idea, but the release and elevation is a thing of beauty. I also think it has value because it keeps the defenders guessing.
 
If Sulaimon is 50%+ from midrange next year, then he is basically the Bosh in the offense, and that's fine. We do need a guy who hits those, with Curry gone.
 
Yeah, I think some advanced metrics guys miss the value of the midrange in the context of a game. Sure it's the least efficient shot in basketball. But it diversifies your attack and can be a great way to avoid offensive fouls.
 
I think K watches Miami with great admiration and is hoping for Josh Hairston to be that Bosh-like midrange killer.

:(
 
Yeah, K loves Miami. He's said as much. I think he identifies with the hated "overdogs."
 
SeanMayTriedToEatMe said:
I think K watches Miami with great admiration and is hoping for Josh Hairston to be that Bosh-like midrange killer.

:(

Hopefully K sees Jiggy more as the Haslem role and Amile can relish a spot inside.
 
My guess is that both Jabari and Hood will be someone in between the Lebron and Battier role - versatile defenders and rebounders who can shoot, but also good ballhandlers and overall scorers. I don't personally think Jabari will be able to penetrate or pass anywhere near as well as Lebron (even adjusted for competition) - I'm not sure if he's as much a creator as he is a rich man's role player.

That said, I think JR Cook will be much better in college than Chalmers is in the NBA, and that he and Sheed will be the main guys who initiate things.
 
I'm think Jabari should be roughly as good as Lebron, not adjusted for competition.
 

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