Duke-MSU prediction thread

[TS9]

If there was a Duke by 8-12 option, that's what I would have chosen, but alas.

Feel weird about this one because eventually Izzo's going to win a game against K again, but this really doesn't seem like the spot in which that would happen. Which means it probably will.

Also, ACC/Big Ten week marks the one-year anniversary of the last time Duke played a basketball game without a major injury to at least one rotation player. Congrats to everyone for reaching this milestone.

 

[aiw]

Huzzah! Great accomplishment guys!

 

[dukeman92]

Duke 81 Michigan State 72

This sounds right. I'll stick by my homer pick, though.

It wouldn't surprise me to see a 20 pt win.

 

[TS9]

It wouldn't surprise me to see a 20 pt win.

I'd like this mainly because it would make UK's most impressive win look less impressive.

 

[rhfarmer]

I watched the UK/MSU game and came away with 2 things. One, UK's backcourt is fucking great. Fox and Monk are really, really good. Like, obvious NBA talents. Briscoe off the bench is really solid too. Monk was bombing 3's against MSU. The other thing was how bad MSU looked. They just didn't look up for the fight. Usually, when Izzo has inferior talent, he can muddy the game up, but they just didn't have the fire against Knetucky. Aside from Bridges, I didn't see elite athletes that can keep up with the top tier teams. They also have 7 freshman on the roster.

So, MSU by 5.

 

[SeanMayTriedToEatMe]

Duke is favored by 9.5-10.5 points over MSU.

 

[CK86]

Hoping for a Duke win but expecting a loss with all the fucking injuries. Also since the bluffs aren't going to play and Allen is basically playing on one leg, I'm not optimistic.

 

[rome8180]

We don't even know what Allen's status is. He could very well not play.

 

[SeanMayTriedToEatMe]

Who would camp out for this garbage? You get to see Frank Jackson, Luke Kennard, Matt Jones, Amile Jefferson and Antonio Vrankovic take on a decimated, bad and typically boring MSU team. Parents should be irate.

 

[TS9]

No Grayson or Bench Trio in those pics. They must've still been in their hyperbaric chambers.

 

[dukeberto]

Grayson is for sure going to play, because he's not a vagina.

 

[dukeman92]

We don't even know what Allen's status is. He could very well not play.

He's going to play.

 

[StopThePumpFakesShav]

We don't even know what Allen's status is. He could very well not play.

K said he should be fine to play in the Saturday post game.


It would be nice to get one of the Pussies back by the Florida game next week.

 

[physicsfactor]

Line is up to Duke -11.5. Grayson is playing.

 

[rome8180]

We don't even know what Allen's status is. He could very well not play.

K said he should be fine to play in the Saturday post game.


It would be nice to get one of the Pussies back by the Florida game next week.

I'd rather not introduce a new player against UF. If it happens against Maine, I'd be more comfortable.

 

[TS9]

The Maine game makes a lot of sense, if we assume that any of this makes any sense.

 

[skins]

It wouldn't surprise me to see a 20 pt win.

I'd like this mainly because it would make UK's most impressive win look less impressive.

I agree with this. The goals of this season have changed dramatically. It's not about what this team can accomplish, it's about how they can minimize the triumphs of others. With a shift in focus this can still be a successful season, I think.

 

[SeanMayTriedToEatMe]

Heads up to Rome, the Maine spread will likely be in the low to mid 40s, so the ranges should probably be Maine wins, Duke by 1-25, 26-35, 36-45, 46-55, 56-65, 66+.

It would be one of the highest lines I've ever seen for Duke basketball, and this is with all 3 NADs still questionable at best.

 

[rome8180]

Thanks. I don't have Kenpom premium access. Is there some other rating system that will give me the expected spread in hypothetical matchups? I like to get the polls up early so I don't forget, so that precludes waiting for the Vegas line.

 

[SeanMayTriedToEatMe]

When I try to guess a line, I just use Sagarin Predictor and adjust a few points based on stuff like injuries, back to back, inflated preseason expectations, etc.
http://sagarin.com/sports/cbsend.htm

Look at the blue numbers in the PREDICTOR column and subtract one from the other. Tack on 3-3.5 points for home court. Right now, Sagarin is giving home advantage as 3.14, which you can see in the brackets at the top of the column.