2019 summer shooting numbers:
Paolo Banchero: FT 77%, 3pt 29%- For a 6'9 "power forward" I think this is super encouraging. The FT shooting is very promising and IMO leads me to believe that on a team with good spacing and a bunch of shooters/drivers allowing him to get step-in threes, I think it's very plausible to believe he could be a 40% 3pt shooter on low to moderate volume. Heck, I know last year scarred us, but we've been pretty damn good at developing shooters overall. It wasn't on high volume, but everyone forgets this staff had Winslow shoot 42% from 3 and 64% from FT, Marvin Bagley shot 40% from 3 and 63% from FT, and Wendell Carter Jr shot 41% from 3 and 74% from FT. Again, as a sophomore heading into his junior year, Banchero shot 77% from the FT line on 154 attempts. Considering that Banchero is already at a 77% FT rate and that was before his junior year, I think this bodes extremely well. Couple that in with the fact that he's a skilled ball handler and passer, AND he still has a lot of time to develop on work on his shooting, I think it's very likely he develops into a capable and reliable 3pt shooter in his one college season. The other thing to note about these stats is that for the summer circuit, getting to the FT line 154 times is very, very high.
I personally think Banchero might be the best offensive player in the class, and I think he would be even better if he joined a Duke class with Baldwin and Griffin (along with whatever guards we bring in & return). There will be space for him to do his thing and take advantage of mismatches inside while also being able to get open, in rhythm jumpers on the perimeter, which also means he'll have space to drive.
Patrick Baldwin: FT 85% on 40 attempts, 3pt 35% on 111 attempts. Overall I personally think Banchero is a much more talented scorer than Baldwin. I think he's better at driving to the basket, and I think he's better inside than Baldwin is (at this point in their careers). Baldwin is the better shooter and will continue to develop. As of right now, that's all I really see is Baldwin is. There's absolutely nothing wrong with that- he's a 6'8/6'9 shooter that will continue to develop but hopefully he adds more to his game. It's been said he has a high IQ and is a playmaker but I don't really see that reflected in the stats. He averaged 1.6 assists per game in the summer compared to 1.3 turnovers. he also only averaged 4.5 rebounds per game. For comparisons sake, Banchero averaged 4 assists per game to 2.7 turnovers, and he averaged 11 rebounds. I love the shooting from Baldwin, but at this stage Banchero is a much more complete and to be quite frank I don't even think it's that close. I still would love to have Baldwin and think he fits perfectly between Banchero and Griffin.
AJ Griffin: His stats are very hard to decipher as it seems he was probably dominating but just driving at team's and physically imposing his dominance on them. He shot 50% from the FT line on just 16 attempts, and he shot 63% from 3 on 19 attempts. Hard to take much from these numbers on such low volume, as only 4 games were reported from the Nike EYBL for his PSA Cardinals AAU team. In 4 games with USA Basketball he averaged 36% from 3 on 11 attempts and shot 71% from the FT line 14 attempts.
Max Christie: I couldn't find much but
@sjsj2448 has him at 89% from the FT line and 42% from 3. He's regarded as the best, or one of the best shooters in the class. I think we should just assume he is since it's been so widely reported and that's all he does in his highlight videos anyway.
Trevor Keels: Shot 61% from the FT line on 44 attempts, and he shot 39% from 3 on 33 attempts. I don't know what to make of his shooting because in the NIKE EYBL he shot 17 of 31 from the FT line for 55%, and he shot 35% on 20 attempts from 3. In Peach Jam he shot 77% from the FT line on 13 attempts and shot 46% from 3 on 13 attempts from 3. Obviously two very different shooting numbers where it appears he shot great in Peach Jam and shot sub par in Nike EYBL. However, if 35% from 3 is his "subpar" shooting I think that's pretty good, and again, his shooting should continue to develop both from the FT line and from 3pt since these stats are in the summer between his sophomore and junior season.
Kennedy Chandler: Shot 73% from the FT line on 85 attempts and 31% from 3 on 45 attempts. I think the FT shooting is promising. Just for some historical context here on a point guard who was a bad shooter at Duke his freshman year, Tre Jones shot 24% on 41 attempts from 3, and he shot 72% from the FT line on 151 attempts. All things considered, I think Chandler stacks up pretty well here. We don't need him to be lights out, we just need him to play great defense and help drive and create open shots for others, which he seems to do averaging 6 assists per game and 3.3 turnovers. He also averages 4.2 rebounds per game, pretty good from the point guard spot. He's regarded as an elite defender and a very physical guard, which bodes well obviously defensively, but also offensively because if he's surrounded by shooters it will likely lead to him driving to the paint a lot and either finishing or kicking out to open perimeter players who can then drive it and dunk on someone (Griffin) or bury an in rhythm open 3. If Chandler can play good to great defense, do well distributing the ball and finishing inside, and be a 75% FT shooter and shoot 35% on low to moderate volume (similar to Jones this year) he would be a great PG for us in the context of his supporting cast.
I really enjoyed doing this surface level research on all of these guys. I am in love with Banchero both from what I've seen visually and from the stats I see. I really think he's a complete player and that he will develop into a better shooter. I think I see him as offensively similar to Jabari Parker as a freshman, and although I hated him defensively, in my opinion, that's super high praise for an offensive comparison. I don't think they're exactly similar, I think that Parker was a great face-up player and probably better at finishing around the rim, but I think Banchero at the same stage has more perimeter skills, but overall, the comparison of them both being "complete' offensive players is the idea, and as far as Duke players in the last 10-15 years go, I think it's the best and most accurate comparison for Banchero on the offensive end.
I also really love AJ Griffin and Trevor Keels. Griffin I don't have a lot of stats on, and I haven't seen him play much outside of some highlights, but the hype from
@rome8180 and
@sjsj2448 on Griffin has me fully aboard the train and his genetics are good. Considering his dad was a high level player at Seton Hall (you didn't think I was going to write this wall of text that no one will read and not include Seton Hall, did you?), played in the NBA and is a NBA championship assistant coach, I also think Griffin will come in very high IQ and particularly have a great understand of modern spacing and know the difference between a good and bad shot (avoiding mid-range and taking more 3's).
As far as Keels goes, there's just something I love about Virginia players in that DC area. They play great competition and they come out tough as nails. So many good players have come from there and Duke has benefited greatly with guys like Nolan Smith, Quinn Cook, and I'm sure I'm missing a bunch of guys both recently and long-term. We also have Roach committed, and the two of them have helped spark a top 20 high school team which defeated DeMatha and Sierra Canyon. Keels apparently is strong, physical, and very good defensively, which is par for the course coming out of that high school league in that area. He also seems like a very good shooter. Which means, there are two programs he would absolutely thrive in: Virginia, and Villanova. Two extremely different programs stylistically in how they play basketball, but two programs who also do a great job developing players like him while maintaining two of the best and most consistent programs in the country. I would love to have Keels and really hope he commits to Duke.
I'm a huge of Chandler, I really want him. The scouting reports describe him as athletic, strong, physical, very good defensively and he's good at creating for others. As the stats show, not a great shooter, but he can develop into a decent one which is all we would need in that recruiting class considering the other assets he'd be bringing to the table.
I don't have much of a feel for Christie but at this stage I prefer Keels because I get the vibe that Keels is a better defender and a more complete player. Even if Christie is a better shooter and is say a 43% guy as a freshman in college, I would rather have Keels at 40% while being better defensively and going to the basket. Again just my personal opinion that some may disagree with, which is fine.
Baldwin is disappointing to me only in that I assumed he was a monster like Banchero. Baldwin is a lights out shooter at 6'9. He's athletic and long but he does literally nothing else. All he does is shoot. He doesn't rebound at all for his size, and he's not a playmaker. Maybe I'm missing it and he's Durant lite, but I'm just not seeing it. I would love to have him in this class because who doesn't want a 6'9 athletic guy who is lights out from the floor? But he's not what I thought he was.
