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This is it. Four consecutive opponents in or around the top 10 on Kenpom.com, over a span of less than 12 full days, for a young team that typically only goes six players deep.
A 0-4 record, even though it doesn't get any worse, wouldn't be too shabby without any more injuries and with further signs of development in the freshmen. 1-3 would be downright satisfactory. 2-2 would be great and uplifting. 3-1 would be legendary, a feat to tell your grandchildren about. 4-0 would likely be remembered by Duke fans as the greatest four-game performance of any six players in college basketball history.
As always, Amile Jefferson's return would change everything, but based on photos of his foot posted by his doctors on Twitter, I can't imagine he's coming back for any of these four games.
Still on crutches, with his entire ankle and lower leg wrapped in addition to his foot, and now a white man...
Any hope I once had for Jefferson returning in the very near future has been wiped away.
Louisville - Monday, February 8, 7:00pm ET, ESPN
Of course, 2 of those 9 games are against Duke.
Those who remember the glory days of Duke basketball will remember that Louisville was the opponent that turned the season around for the 2014-15 national champions. Louisville was the team that was so horrifically bad at making jumpshots that Coach K, for the first time in his career, decided that a zone defense might be more effective for 40 minutes than man-to-man.
This Louisville team still hates shooting 3s (sub-300 3pt attempt rate), but now they're surprisingly decent at making 3s (top 100 3pt%). They don't get to the line and they don't make free throws (around #200 at both FT attempt rate and FT%). They get their points on 2s, and they like 2pt jumpers just about as much as they like 2s at the rim. They're elite at offensive rebounding, which seems to be the ACC's thing this season, minus Duke. This all adds up to a weird and likely ugly offense that sits near #50 in efficiency.
It doesn't seem like zone would be the best option against Louisville this season - it would give them more incentive to shoot 3s, which they're good at, and they're also comfortable taking 2s in the soft spots in the zone. Duke's defensive rebounding in a zone against Louisville would be even worse than the usual disaster. With Duke's lack of depth and mediocre defensive talent, several stretches of zone might be necessary, however.
The main guy on offense for Louisville is one of the best scorers in the country. Damion Lee is a 6-6 5th year transfer from Drexel. His offensive win shares are almost double anyone else on his team. He's 2nd in the ACC in win shares per 40 minutes. His shot selection is impeccable - he gets to the line (43% free throw rate), he kills it at the line (88% FT), he shoots 3s (51% 3pt attempt rate) and he makes his 3s (38% 3pt). He's not a good passer, though (10% assist rate, 11% turnover rate). He also gets lots of steals (2.9% steal rate) and is a great defensive rebounder for his position and given the lineups he's playing in (12% defensive rebounding%). The defensive game plan against Louisville starts and pretty much ends with Lee. Get the ball out of his hands, and you can live with whatever Louisville does after that.
Louisville's defense is huge and one of the best in the country. They contest every shot, including 3s. This leads to their only severe weakness, which is fouling a ton (sub-250 opponent FT attempt rate). They're also not good at defensive rebounding, but I doubt that's going to be an issue against Duke.
Louisville plays four guys who are 6-10 or taller and who are all great defenders on paper. Chinanu Onuaku is best known for shooting underhand free throws, which is a shame, because he's not getting much recognition as the true ACC defensive player of the year. He has grabbed more than a quarter of all possible rebounds while on defense and blocked almost 10% of opponent shots. His incredible defensive rating in the low 80s is miles better than the 2nd best mark in the ACC. His defensive box plus-minus isn't even the best on his team, though - he's 2nd to 7-footer Anas Mahmoud. Whenever Duke drives in this game, they're going to need to be hunting for foul calls, because the other result is usually going to be an ugly miss or a block leading to transition layups.
The Vegas line should be very low in either direction. This is the most winnable game for Duke of these four games. Sad that it had to be Super Bowl Part I for Louisville.
Virginia - Saturday, February 13, 4:30pm ET, ESPN
If this is how they celebrate a win at Wake Forest, imagine the party they'll have in Cameron.
Everyone knows how this team and coach do things. The players are largely the same as last year, and the year before that. Maybe they'll be interesting again next year, when the guy who chose to attend Memphis over Duke for basketball, Austin Nichols, is playing for them.
Here are a few surprising things about this unsurprising team:
1. Virginia's offense is better than its defense. This may not sound like much, but it would be the first season in Tony Bennett's tenure at Virginia (7 seasons) that his team has an offensive efficiency ranked anywhere close to their defensive efficiency, let alone better. At around #20 in defensive efficiency, this isn't Bennett's typical overwhelming defense. It's not bad luck, either - opponents have been below the national average in FT% and 3pt%.
2. Virginia shoots extremely well but doesn't like 3s or free throws. They're in the top 25, or close to it, in every shooting percentage stat (2pt%, 3pt%, FT%, FG%, eFG% and TS%), and this has come against a top 10 strength of schedule in opposing defenses. Their shot selection is questionable - they're sub-300 in 3pt attempt rate and sub-200 in FT attempt rate. It seems like they get lots of uncontested 2s on offense, which should be a familiar sight for Duke's defense this season.
3. Carrying on the Justin Anderson legacy of ridiculously fluky 3pt shooting, point guard London Perrantes is a 51% 3pt shooter on high volume now. This comes after he shot 32% from 3 last season. Marial Shayok's 46% seems more sustainable but not entirely sustainable, as he was 38% last season.
4. The advanced stats say power forward Isaiah Wilkins is really good. Unlike the other huge pains in the asses on Virginia, he's going to be a pain in the ass for two more seasons after this one. For this season, however, he only plays about half of each game, and his usage is very low (12%).
The Vegas line for this game should be a pick em or favor Virginia by a small amount.
@North Carolina - Wednesday, February 17, 9:00pm ET, ESPN
Nothing can top that 1924 Helms Foundation title, but the 2016 banner is going to look good on the other side.
Some may question Roy Williams's player development, Xs and Os, recruit evaluation, judgment in public speaking, general intelligence, moral fiber and vertigo legitimacy, but these criticisms seem awfully silly when Roy has built the strong favorite to win the national championship this season.
Any game plan for UNC starts with Brice Johnson, who is on track to make some 1st team All America lists and will probably be the ACC player of the year. He has evolved into his final form while at UNC, which Duke fans had hoped would never happen, but Roy somehow got four years out of this former #11 overall recruit on Scout.com. Johnson is #1 in the ACC by a wide margin in win shares per 40 minutes and PER. His defensive rating is 2nd only to Onuaku. His offensive rating is 3rd behind only Sheldon McClellan on Miami and Grayson Allen. His defensive rebounding percentage is above 30%, #1 in the ACC, and he hasn't even played Duke to bolster that number yet. He's top 10 in the ACC in both block percentage and steal percentage. Like Sean May and Ty Lawson before him, Johnson looks to be on track to carry UNC to a national championship.
If only Duke had an experienced forward similar to Johnson's build who was a solid defender and could hold his own on the boards against Johnson. That would make this game a lot easier for Duke instead of being an impossible matchup.
Once you're done contemplating how badly Johnson is going to kill Duke, the next thing you notice about UNC is their apathy toward the 3-point shot. It seems as if UNC ignores or is unaware of the fact that the 3-pointer exists. They're sub-300 or close to it in 3pt attempt rate, 3pt% and opponent 3pt%. They're sub-200 in opponent 3pt attempt rate. They don't take 3s, they're bad at making 3s and they don't guard 3s. On top of that, adding to their anti-analytics revolution, they're sub-200 at drawing fouls and near #1 in the country at midrange jumper attempt rate.
As much as the Warriors' success in the NBA last season advanced the acceptance of analytics, a UNC national title could undo all of that progress among college basketball fans, and it's difficult to argue that Charles Barkley and Roy Williams are wrong if UNC's style prevails in the end, and given how dominant Kentucky was last season. Maybe this really is the way to dominate on offense - build a giant roster that gets offensive rebounds and makes 2s. Maybe Duke has it all wrong by not unleashing a lineup of Brandon Ingram, Chase Jeter, Sean Obi, Antonio Vrankovic and Marshall Plumlee. The darkness will truly set in when UNC's big men are dunking all over Duke walk-ons (the only Duke players who haven't fouled out) in the closing minutes of this blowout.
The Vegas line for this game might as well be UNC by infinity, as any line they set will be too low. This should be a cathartic massacre for UNC like when the 2009-10 Duke team finally destroyed UNC at Cameron after years of UNC dominance. That Duke team had a genius point guard and a center who got every rebound he could reach. We have reached the opposite end of the spectrum with this Duke team.
@Louisville - Saturday, February 20, 12:00pm ET, ESPN
I wish I could tell you that Duke fought the good fight, and that their depleted, exhausted rotation stood tall against elite teams 4 times in 12 days, or that Amile Jefferson made a triumphant return that reinvigorated his teammates, his ailing head coach and an entire fanbase. I wish I could tell you that, but this Duke season is no fairytale world.
This miserable stretch of games concludes with a rematch at Louisville, after which Duke could be 6-8 in the ACC, with a significant chance of missing the NCAA Tournament. At that point, the best course of action would be to watch these videos of D-League standouts Quinn Cook and Tyus Jones, Miami Heat backup Justise Winslow, future UFC/NASCAR phenom Jahlil Okafor, and former Duke star Matt Jones:
A 0-4 record, even though it doesn't get any worse, wouldn't be too shabby without any more injuries and with further signs of development in the freshmen. 1-3 would be downright satisfactory. 2-2 would be great and uplifting. 3-1 would be legendary, a feat to tell your grandchildren about. 4-0 would likely be remembered by Duke fans as the greatest four-game performance of any six players in college basketball history.
As always, Amile Jefferson's return would change everything, but based on photos of his foot posted by his doctors on Twitter, I can't imagine he's coming back for any of these four games.
Still on crutches, with his entire ankle and lower leg wrapped in addition to his foot, and now a white man...
Any hope I once had for Jefferson returning in the very near future has been wiped away.
Louisville - Monday, February 8, 7:00pm ET, ESPN
Of course, 2 of those 9 games are against Duke.
Those who remember the glory days of Duke basketball will remember that Louisville was the opponent that turned the season around for the 2014-15 national champions. Louisville was the team that was so horrifically bad at making jumpshots that Coach K, for the first time in his career, decided that a zone defense might be more effective for 40 minutes than man-to-man.
This Louisville team still hates shooting 3s (sub-300 3pt attempt rate), but now they're surprisingly decent at making 3s (top 100 3pt%). They don't get to the line and they don't make free throws (around #200 at both FT attempt rate and FT%). They get their points on 2s, and they like 2pt jumpers just about as much as they like 2s at the rim. They're elite at offensive rebounding, which seems to be the ACC's thing this season, minus Duke. This all adds up to a weird and likely ugly offense that sits near #50 in efficiency.
It doesn't seem like zone would be the best option against Louisville this season - it would give them more incentive to shoot 3s, which they're good at, and they're also comfortable taking 2s in the soft spots in the zone. Duke's defensive rebounding in a zone against Louisville would be even worse than the usual disaster. With Duke's lack of depth and mediocre defensive talent, several stretches of zone might be necessary, however.
The main guy on offense for Louisville is one of the best scorers in the country. Damion Lee is a 6-6 5th year transfer from Drexel. His offensive win shares are almost double anyone else on his team. He's 2nd in the ACC in win shares per 40 minutes. His shot selection is impeccable - he gets to the line (43% free throw rate), he kills it at the line (88% FT), he shoots 3s (51% 3pt attempt rate) and he makes his 3s (38% 3pt). He's not a good passer, though (10% assist rate, 11% turnover rate). He also gets lots of steals (2.9% steal rate) and is a great defensive rebounder for his position and given the lineups he's playing in (12% defensive rebounding%). The defensive game plan against Louisville starts and pretty much ends with Lee. Get the ball out of his hands, and you can live with whatever Louisville does after that.
Louisville's defense is huge and one of the best in the country. They contest every shot, including 3s. This leads to their only severe weakness, which is fouling a ton (sub-250 opponent FT attempt rate). They're also not good at defensive rebounding, but I doubt that's going to be an issue against Duke.
Louisville plays four guys who are 6-10 or taller and who are all great defenders on paper. Chinanu Onuaku is best known for shooting underhand free throws, which is a shame, because he's not getting much recognition as the true ACC defensive player of the year. He has grabbed more than a quarter of all possible rebounds while on defense and blocked almost 10% of opponent shots. His incredible defensive rating in the low 80s is miles better than the 2nd best mark in the ACC. His defensive box plus-minus isn't even the best on his team, though - he's 2nd to 7-footer Anas Mahmoud. Whenever Duke drives in this game, they're going to need to be hunting for foul calls, because the other result is usually going to be an ugly miss or a block leading to transition layups.
The Vegas line should be very low in either direction. This is the most winnable game for Duke of these four games. Sad that it had to be Super Bowl Part I for Louisville.
Virginia - Saturday, February 13, 4:30pm ET, ESPN
If this is how they celebrate a win at Wake Forest, imagine the party they'll have in Cameron.
Everyone knows how this team and coach do things. The players are largely the same as last year, and the year before that. Maybe they'll be interesting again next year, when the guy who chose to attend Memphis over Duke for basketball, Austin Nichols, is playing for them.
Here are a few surprising things about this unsurprising team:
1. Virginia's offense is better than its defense. This may not sound like much, but it would be the first season in Tony Bennett's tenure at Virginia (7 seasons) that his team has an offensive efficiency ranked anywhere close to their defensive efficiency, let alone better. At around #20 in defensive efficiency, this isn't Bennett's typical overwhelming defense. It's not bad luck, either - opponents have been below the national average in FT% and 3pt%.
2. Virginia shoots extremely well but doesn't like 3s or free throws. They're in the top 25, or close to it, in every shooting percentage stat (2pt%, 3pt%, FT%, FG%, eFG% and TS%), and this has come against a top 10 strength of schedule in opposing defenses. Their shot selection is questionable - they're sub-300 in 3pt attempt rate and sub-200 in FT attempt rate. It seems like they get lots of uncontested 2s on offense, which should be a familiar sight for Duke's defense this season.
3. Carrying on the Justin Anderson legacy of ridiculously fluky 3pt shooting, point guard London Perrantes is a 51% 3pt shooter on high volume now. This comes after he shot 32% from 3 last season. Marial Shayok's 46% seems more sustainable but not entirely sustainable, as he was 38% last season.
4. The advanced stats say power forward Isaiah Wilkins is really good. Unlike the other huge pains in the asses on Virginia, he's going to be a pain in the ass for two more seasons after this one. For this season, however, he only plays about half of each game, and his usage is very low (12%).
The Vegas line for this game should be a pick em or favor Virginia by a small amount.
@North Carolina - Wednesday, February 17, 9:00pm ET, ESPN
Nothing can top that 1924 Helms Foundation title, but the 2016 banner is going to look good on the other side.
Some may question Roy Williams's player development, Xs and Os, recruit evaluation, judgment in public speaking, general intelligence, moral fiber and vertigo legitimacy, but these criticisms seem awfully silly when Roy has built the strong favorite to win the national championship this season.
Any game plan for UNC starts with Brice Johnson, who is on track to make some 1st team All America lists and will probably be the ACC player of the year. He has evolved into his final form while at UNC, which Duke fans had hoped would never happen, but Roy somehow got four years out of this former #11 overall recruit on Scout.com. Johnson is #1 in the ACC by a wide margin in win shares per 40 minutes and PER. His defensive rating is 2nd only to Onuaku. His offensive rating is 3rd behind only Sheldon McClellan on Miami and Grayson Allen. His defensive rebounding percentage is above 30%, #1 in the ACC, and he hasn't even played Duke to bolster that number yet. He's top 10 in the ACC in both block percentage and steal percentage. Like Sean May and Ty Lawson before him, Johnson looks to be on track to carry UNC to a national championship.
If only Duke had an experienced forward similar to Johnson's build who was a solid defender and could hold his own on the boards against Johnson. That would make this game a lot easier for Duke instead of being an impossible matchup.
Once you're done contemplating how badly Johnson is going to kill Duke, the next thing you notice about UNC is their apathy toward the 3-point shot. It seems as if UNC ignores or is unaware of the fact that the 3-pointer exists. They're sub-300 or close to it in 3pt attempt rate, 3pt% and opponent 3pt%. They're sub-200 in opponent 3pt attempt rate. They don't take 3s, they're bad at making 3s and they don't guard 3s. On top of that, adding to their anti-analytics revolution, they're sub-200 at drawing fouls and near #1 in the country at midrange jumper attempt rate.
As much as the Warriors' success in the NBA last season advanced the acceptance of analytics, a UNC national title could undo all of that progress among college basketball fans, and it's difficult to argue that Charles Barkley and Roy Williams are wrong if UNC's style prevails in the end, and given how dominant Kentucky was last season. Maybe this really is the way to dominate on offense - build a giant roster that gets offensive rebounds and makes 2s. Maybe Duke has it all wrong by not unleashing a lineup of Brandon Ingram, Chase Jeter, Sean Obi, Antonio Vrankovic and Marshall Plumlee. The darkness will truly set in when UNC's big men are dunking all over Duke walk-ons (the only Duke players who haven't fouled out) in the closing minutes of this blowout.
The Vegas line for this game might as well be UNC by infinity, as any line they set will be too low. This should be a cathartic massacre for UNC like when the 2009-10 Duke team finally destroyed UNC at Cameron after years of UNC dominance. That Duke team had a genius point guard and a center who got every rebound he could reach. We have reached the opposite end of the spectrum with this Duke team.
@Louisville - Saturday, February 20, 12:00pm ET, ESPN
I wish I could tell you that Duke fought the good fight, and that their depleted, exhausted rotation stood tall against elite teams 4 times in 12 days, or that Amile Jefferson made a triumphant return that reinvigorated his teammates, his ailing head coach and an entire fanbase. I wish I could tell you that, but this Duke season is no fairytale world.
This miserable stretch of games concludes with a rematch at Louisville, after which Duke could be 6-8 in the ACC, with a significant chance of missing the NCAA Tournament. At that point, the best course of action would be to watch these videos of D-League standouts Quinn Cook and Tyus Jones, Miami Heat backup Justise Winslow, future UFC/NASCAR phenom Jahlil Okafor, and former Duke star Matt Jones:
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