After having somewhat reasonable expectations for a freshman Jeter and watching him be unreasonably awful for most of the season (arguably the entire season), along with seeing how trash Andre Drummond was as a freshman, plus all the other giant dudes who have sucked early in their careers before getting adjusted to their bodies and college, I have no expectations for Bolden. I'm not saying I have expectations for Bolden to be a nothing player; I'm saying I wouldn't even try to project what he'll be as a freshman because it would probably be a waste of time. Giles is a different case for a big man because everyone has unanimously raved about what a freak he is for years. Giles should be that rare, exceptional, once-every-couple-years talent, hopefully in the advanced metrics range of Anthony Davis and Karl Towns.
What we know about Bolden is that his measurables are incredible and DraftExpress pegs him as the 8th best prospect in the world for next season. This tells me he's OAD because players with his measurables generally don't fall from the 8th overall ballpark to the 2nd round. Even big man freshman busts like Labissiere still get at least one team to reach for them and gamble based on length and raw talent that once seemed to exist. Cliff Alexander was one of the exceptions due to a combination of overhype out of high school and pure shittiness as a player. I assume it would be difficult or impossible to find an example of someone with Bolden's draft projection, height, weight, wingspan and standing reach as a freshman falling to the 2nd round or worse. I believe Bolden could simply run on a treadmill each day until he meets the NBA minimum age requirement and still be drafted in the high to mid-1st round.
So without trying to project what kind of player Bolden will be as a freshman, this is what my robotic analysis would be for the pros and cons of getting him, and in the end, I see no way this will be an overall negative for Duke:
Worst Case Scenario
1. Jeter transfers regardless of how much playing time he gets next season, because he feels disrespected in being recruited over, not just with Bolden but also with Bamba, Carter and Gak in the next class. Most likely, his playing time will be negatively affected, which would push him further to leave.
2. Bolden is terrible at basketball as a freshman - an inexcusable waste of life at his size, as if Derryck Thornton were the Incredible Hulk, but when he hulks up, he only does so moderately and becomes slow and even shittier at basketball somehow.
I'm not including Bamba or Carter being influenced in their decisionmaking by Bolden in this worst case scenario. They're smart, they know how to use the Internet. They can see that there's close to zero chance that Bolden is at Duke beyond next season. I'll put a bow on the OAD paragraph above by estimating the number of human beings in the developed world who are in the 19-25 age range and have Bolden's standing reach and athleticism, but who are not in the NBA: fewer than 10.
This is the result of the worst case scenario:
1. Very little impact on Duke's performance next season, as long as Giles and Jefferson are healthy all season. Duke would be better off going small in this scenario and possibly even if all three of Giles, Jefferson and Bolden are monsters, and this makes it easier for K to justify going small more often.
2. Duke needs to get more instant impact big men to replace what would've been Jeter's junior and senior season. Not easy, but Duke seems more prepared to do this than anyone else, with Bamba and Carter as priority targets.
Realistic Good Scenario
1. Bolden becomes a great modern big man no later than the end of the season - a mobile, athletic giant who protects the rim, rebounds and scores efficiently on pick-and-roll possessions and junk baskets inside without sucking up possessions on lots of post-ups. He gets 20-25 minutes in a 3-big rotation with the likewise elite Giles and Jefferson.
2. Jeter transfers.
3. Duke still gets one of Bamba/Carter, plus Gak, plus Knox in the next class because, again, Bolden will be gone along with Giles, Jefferson and Jeter.
This is the result of the realistic good scenario:
1. Duke has one of its best regular seasons ever and enters the NCAA Tournament with 35-40% odds to win it.
2. Duke is loaded for the following season as well.
Best Case Scenario
1. Bolden is outrageously good. Basically puts up the same rate stats as Hassan Whiteside in the NBA, but even more dominant because his size advantage in college is so ridiculous.
2. Jeter sticks it out at Duke because he's fine with an old school college career where he merely contributes as a junior and doesn't really explode until his senior year. Bolden and Jeter both being at least solid players allows Duke to defend well inside, bolstered by the freedom to defend aggressively with no fear of foul trouble.
3. Bamba, Carter, Gak and Knox all commit to Duke for the following season.
I think this best case scenario is worth gambling on, with the possible cost being the worst case scenario above, and the likely result being something a little worse than the realistic good scenario above. There's at least one current player who could get shafted in all of this, but that's how corporate America has always worked. Duke basketball is the same as any other cold corporation - the talents who can easily be replaced are pushed out, and the best talents will live like kings. The UNCs of the world, where the CEO gives every employee handouts whether they deserve it or not, will be left behind, and neither the program nor the talents in the program will benefit in the long run.
Finally, if Jeter has an accurate sense of self-worth, he won't transfer. Last year's freshman class was historically bad, and it showed in the production by the top 25 players in the class. The incoming freshman class has been described as historically good by various recruiting services. It's very much debatable whether Jeter should not be expected to have a college or pro career that is any better than DeLaurier's. Jeter was a 10-20 ranked prospect in a terrible class, while DeLaurier is a low 40s ranked player in a great class.
TL;DR - We OK.