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NBA Draft Discussion

I assess drafts almost entirely based on something like "how many guys are you going to be happy giving supermax contracts to?" The solid starters, fringe all-stars, immediately competent bench guys, etc., just aren't what I would care about drafting. You can readily acquire those players in other ways, and it's not always great to draft them--then you're stuck giving some of them the max when they're not max players. The LaMelos of the world--the guys you're realistically going to be happy giving a supermax to--can't be had unless you draft them or they demand a trade and allow the trade to your team. I think only one guy in last year's draft will reach that level (I exclude Wiseman due to my personal positional value). So I'm just going to have different "grading scales" for drafts than you guys.
 
Yeah, hard disagree on that. You need one or two stars, sure, but without solid rotation players your team is going to be the Minnesota Timberwolves. And those players don't grow on trees, otherwise the Minnesota Timberwolves wouldn't be the Minnesota Timberwolves. They're drafted and developed by someone.

Bottom line, more teams had good outcomes in this draft that in most other years. I think that makes it a better year than, say, a year where there were two superstars and a bunch of trash. More teams will benefit.
 
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Also, I would say that LaMelo is not the only one with star potential in that draft. It's too early to confidently predict anything, but I can easily see Williams, Avdija, Maxey, or Quickley being an All-Star down the road.
 
I guess you and I simply disagree on whether, for example, Tyrese Haliburton is a good draft pick. I think he’s going to be given a max contract, and it will probably be by the team that drafted him. I don’t think he’s going to be good value for the team that gives him a max contract. I don’t consider Haliburton a successful draft pick. I would grade a total bust that is let go by year 4 as a better outcome. Two very different ways of thinking about how the NBA works, and I don’t think I’m “right.” That’s just my philosophy given how the NBA’s system is set up.
 
I feel like the max rookie extension -- the ones guys sign usually at the start of their fourth year, and then kicks in to cover years 5 through 9 (player option year) has led to many more hits than misses. It's usually only 1-3 guys that sign it, though.

If you're going to overpay a guy, at least let it be a guy during the years he's 23-27. That way even the rookie max "misses" -- guys like Wiggins, or Love, or Eric Gordon -- have some trade value on that deal to teams who can still envision them improving in a different role.
 
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Bleacher Report has NO drafting David Duke with one of their 2nd round picks. Given that the KKK Grand Wizard David Duke originally was a congressman from Louisiana, I feel like they should require him to legally change his name if they pick him.

They also have NO taking Hurt with the 46th pick.
 
rome8180 said:
Bleacher Report has NO drafting David Duke with one of their 2nd round picks. Given that the KKK Grand Wizard David Duke originally was a congressman from Louisiana, I feel like they should require him to legally change his name if they pick him.

They also have NO taking Hurt with the 46th pick.
Click to expand...
He should use his Mother's maiden name " Koresh"
 
So I'm not a fan of this upcoming draft. I actually think the 2020 draft will end up looking way better historically. The 2021 draft has Cunningham, Mobley, and Suggs as players I think will be really good. After that it's got some wild cards in Green and Kuminga. And the rest of the draft sucks.

All that said, the 2022 draft is what 2021is supposed to be. Especially if Bates reclassifies.

Bates
Holmgren
Hardy
Baldwin
Griffin
Banchero

That's off the top of my head without digging into it.
 


Apparently Kuminga has been even more impressive than Green. A clear top 4 seems to be developing with Cunningham, Kuminga, Green and Suggs, though someone who doesn’t hate the idea of using a top pick on a big might throw Mobley into a top 5.

Mobley’s numbers are great. Might be a unicorn type. Wouldn’t mind him too much in the top 5. Kuminga is almost a year younger than all these other guys.
 
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Mobley will still probably go #2. Teams are going to be too enticed by a big who can bring the ball up the floor, pass, defend in space, and shoot.
 
Yeah I would be fine with Mobley. He’s still a project on the perimeter but he’s more like a wing who happens to be giant than a giant trying to develop a wing game.

The least appealing pick among the top 5 to me would be Suggs, based purely on numbers. I was kinda shocked when I saw them, given the hype around him and how good Gonzaga is. He’s not a good shooter or passer. I guess that doesn’t matter if he can get to the basket whenever he wants in the WCC. He might struggle against the G League competition Green and Kuminga are facing.

Sucking for Kum is still very questionable to me. Seems like he’d be like a SF version of Westbrook if he never improves his shooting. The G League is forcing these guys to launch a ton of 3s, and he’s only 18, so hopefully he’s getting the importance of shooting drilled into him so early that he’ll be able to figure it out within 2-3 years.
 
Suggs' shooting was really good earlier in the year. A lot of time with draft analysis you get inertia from people's initial impression. I disagree with the assessment of his passing though. I don't view him as a "point guard," so 4.5 assists is really good for his role in that offense. 2.8 turnovers is a little high, but the assist-to-turnover ratio is not horrible for a freshman.

I think Suggs is one of those players you have to watch to appreciate. He has a little Halliburton in his basketball IQ. Some of his passes are really impressive. Overall, I kind of think his ceiling might be less high than some other guys. I don't see him as an amazing athlete. He kind of reminds me of a better Josh Hart.

That he wanted Duke to recruit him and he never got an offer pisses me off. I can only imagine our record would look a little bit different if we had Suggs in place of literally any of our other freshmen.
 
I'm not sure how I feel about Kuminga. Would I want him to be my option 1 on a college team next season -- definitely not. But, if I'm a NBA team playing a long game, he still might be worth a pretty high pick as a guy that follows more of a Giannis trajectory.
 
Yeah, I just don't like the high-ceiling, low-floor prospects much. So many "hypothetical" skills have to develop that the best possible outcome often has like a 10% chance of happening. So the floor becomes more likely than the ceiling.

Even high in the lottery, I'd rather take a guy whose worst case is a good NBA player. It just depends on your philosophy there.
 
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