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NBA Draft Discussion




With this guy and Wembanyama coming up, and Hayes potentially not being terrible forever, France can be a solid 2nd in the world for a while.
 


Looks like Baldwin isn't currently being considered to have #1 overall potential, though Houstan is. Did Duke really drop Houstan to prioritize Baldwin? Or was Houstan never realistic for Duke?
 
Duke didn't pursue with the urgency needed, though I'm not sure if they necessarily dropped him off the table. He landed in a nice spot - good school/program led by a guy who can prep him for the next level.

He's a hell of a talent.
 
I'm not sure why Baldwin is being mocked so low, or what makes Houstan a better prospect. In general, not putting an elite shooter who is 6'10" and can handle the ball in the top 6-7 of any draft seems downright irrational.

I'm sure I'm wrong, but based on watching their highlights, Baldwin has a more diverse offensive game. Houstan seems to be more of a catch and shoot guy.
 
So far, it looks like this draft will have some dropoff after an elite group of 4 at the top (Holmgren, Banchero, Hardy, Jabari Smith).

Hardy is struggling a bit against a much, much, much higher level of competition than the college guys have been up against, though his perfect 11-11 FT is encouraging and he's being showcased with 27% usage.

Smith has been ridiculous, looking like an ideal NBA center. 5/8 3pt, 6/8 ft, 31% dreb, 6% block, 8% steal, 5/4 assist/turnover, 39 PER, 13 BPM, will be turning 19 just before the draft. If he continues to do these things for 10 more games, I'd take him #1 overall if forced to choose at that point.

Personally not sure if Banchero will pan out at all, but he's going to be in that group as long as he keeps scoring efficiently. Holmgren is too unique to really assess, other than he won't drop below #2 overall.

After that, you have guys like Pat Baldwin, who has pretty much sucked this season. Against terrible competition through 2 games, he's 9/18 2pt, 4/16 3pt, 10/11 ft, not getting to the line (32% ftrate), 21% dreb, 3% block, 1% steal, 5/5 assist/turnover, 101 oeff on 30% usage. I think his 3pt shooting will turn out just fine and he'll put up huge point totals this year against the Horizon. Tall shooters will always have a place in the league, but you don't want to pick that guy at #5.

Jalen Duren is an old school big and I'm sure he'll be in the league for 10+ years, but probably ends up as nothing more than a very expensive negative asset at center.
 



Hunter Dickinson will probably have a similar college and NBA career as Luka Garza. I'm hoping Mark Williams doesn't get exposed like this against a smart coach. My hopes are not high.
 
This is a good mock draft writeup with refreshingly non-herded opinions. He has Chet going #3 behind Paolo and Jabari.


Holmgren was quite old for his grade in high school, and will be 20 before the draft, which does beg the question of how impressive his dominance at that level really was.

Didn't know this. Jaden Ivey is only 3 months older than Holmgren. Changes my views significantly on Ivey as a prospect. He has to keep improving as a shooter to go ahead of Hardy.
 


Feel-good thread overall. He also replies to a comment and says he looks Mark better than Koloko long-term.

Also, after rewatching, Mark had at least 8 blocks against Gonzaga. The fake goaltend, the fake foul call, and then had an obvious block 45 seconds into the second half that he didn't get credit for. Shulman was literally like "Williams gets his sixth block".
 
Stat keepers are so bad at crediting players for blocks in general.

In a rant no one will care about, I'm kind of pissed at Vecenie for doing a draft pod right before the Gonzaga-Duke game. He acknowledged that and said it was because he was celebrating Thanksgiving on Saturday instead of Thursday. (He lives in Australia now, so a Friday night game basically takes place in the middle of the day on Saturday). Just record a podcast on Sunday then, you dolt.
 
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This is clear, IMO. I don’t like this year’s draft very much at the top end. If I could somehow obtain all top 5 picks in the draft this year, I would trade them all for the future rights to Scoot. Maybe the Thunder will try to package SGA, that Australian rookie and 10 1sts for Scoot.
 
Yeah, I don't see how he's not #1 next year. I realize Wembanyama is incredible in his own right, but I'd take the trajectory of a player in Scoot's mold over on in Vic's all day. Even factors like long-term health/injury risk are in his favor.
 

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