NBA Draft Discussion
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Pantone287
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Just need this guy to complete the triumvirate https://www.uwoshkoshtitans.com/sports/mbkb/2018-19/bios/BootsBen
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Didn’t know he had lockdown defender wingspan. Also, he’s 3-3 3pt at the half against FSU, bringing him up to 44% 3pt for the season. Might go #1 overall at this rate.
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Ok, Jabari Smith is my #1 overall, and it’s not close anymore. We’re 9 games in now, and his numbers continue to be almost everything any analytics team could dream of.
Tonight, in 23 minutes against Nebraska (PT was cut short because they won by 31), he had 21 points on 7/13 FG, 3/6 3PT, 4/4 FT, with 5 REB, 4 AST, 1 TO, 2 STL, 1 PF. Without even counting that game, his overall numbers for the season are:
29.5 PER
13.1 BPM
124.5 ORtg
27.2% Usg
87.1 DRtg
48.1% 2pt
43.9% 3pt
82.9% FT
60.5% TS
43.2% 3pt attempt
36.8% FT attempt
26.1% DReb
17.1% Ast
9.7% TO
3.6% Stl
3.1% Blk
The only thing I don’t like about his numbers is the poor 2pt% and low FT rate for an otherwise dominant 6-10 220 guy, which leads to an underwhelming TS. This appears to be easily fixable for him - it’s a coaching/shot selection problem.
He’s being allowed to take way too much midrange (36% of his shots) for no apparent reason. He sucks at midrange (32% FG on them) and he’s amazing at both getting to the rim on his own (only 40% of his at-the-rim attempts are assisted) and making shots at the rim (75%). If he played for a program that hated midrange, which is most of the NBA franchises right now, his numbers would all be astronomical.
This is like a much better offensive version of Evan Mobley coming out of college, but probably not quite as great defensively, and not as long. The upside overall is higher than Mobley, IMO.
As a fan of one of the tanking teams, I really hope the Banchero and Holmgren hype continues so Smith isn’t a clear #1 like he should be. I expect to get a pick in the 3-5 range, which has a good chance to turn into Smith.
Tonight, in 23 minutes against Nebraska (PT was cut short because they won by 31), he had 21 points on 7/13 FG, 3/6 3PT, 4/4 FT, with 5 REB, 4 AST, 1 TO, 2 STL, 1 PF. Without even counting that game, his overall numbers for the season are:
29.5 PER
13.1 BPM
124.5 ORtg
27.2% Usg
87.1 DRtg
48.1% 2pt
43.9% 3pt
82.9% FT
60.5% TS
43.2% 3pt attempt
36.8% FT attempt
26.1% DReb
17.1% Ast
9.7% TO
3.6% Stl
3.1% Blk
The only thing I don’t like about his numbers is the poor 2pt% and low FT rate for an otherwise dominant 6-10 220 guy, which leads to an underwhelming TS. This appears to be easily fixable for him - it’s a coaching/shot selection problem.
He’s being allowed to take way too much midrange (36% of his shots) for no apparent reason. He sucks at midrange (32% FG on them) and he’s amazing at both getting to the rim on his own (only 40% of his at-the-rim attempts are assisted) and making shots at the rim (75%). If he played for a program that hated midrange, which is most of the NBA franchises right now, his numbers would all be astronomical.
This is like a much better offensive version of Evan Mobley coming out of college, but probably not quite as great defensively, and not as long. The upside overall is higher than Mobley, IMO.
As a fan of one of the tanking teams, I really hope the Banchero and Holmgren hype continues so Smith isn’t a clear #1 like he should be. I expect to get a pick in the 3-5 range, which has a good chance to turn into Smith.
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Welp. Smith will be the clear consensus #1 within a week or two.
I would take Ivey #2, without much doubt, and I think that will become consensus soon as well.
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Honey Baked has Paolo at 1, AJ at 14, Mark at 26 and Keels at 27
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One team is going to take Paolo Banchero over this.
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Another interesting mock from Jeremy Woo at SI:
www.si.com
1. Jabari Smith
2. Paolo Banchero
3. Chet Holmgren
4. Jaden Ivey
5. Johnny Davis, SG, Wisconsin, So
The numbers are great, as you would expect for someone who rises this high out of nowhere. They’re not crazy phenomenal, though, so I worry he doesn’t have the NBA prototype size (6-5) to warrant such a high pick as a guard who can’t really be your point guard.
6. Kendall Brown, F, Baylor, Fr
74% 2pt on high volume, 50% 3pt on very low volume. This is a high upside pick.
9. Patrick Baldwin
10. Trevor Keels
I can’t get behind this. 32% 3pt, 70% ft at Duke, consistent with the limited numbers available from high school. He’s 6-4 and a good playmaker, so to realize the value in picking him this high, he needs to play point in the NBA. That would make him a chunkier poor man’s of Russell Westbrook, without the otherworldly athleticism, but with potentially much better defense and fewer dumb turnovers.
17. Wendell Moore
This seems right. A lack of size, length and explosiveness will limit his upside, but he’s just so good at basketball now, and he’s shown so much rapid improvement, that it would be silly not to use a pick on him in the back half of the 1st round. His floor appears to be a positive 6th-8th man for an average NBA team. His ceiling appears to be a positive 6th-8th man for an average NBA team.
18. Mark Williams
32. AJ Griffin
If you were setting an over/under on where Griffin ends up, maybe this is the spot, but it seems highly unlikely he ends up anywhere close to here, for better or for worse. If he blows up, there’s a good chance Duke has 5 1st rounders on its roster this season, while no one else has more than 2. Duke will be the title favorite.
In the entire ACC aside from Duke, there are only 3 prospects in this 2-round mock, including a guard I’ve never heard of at ND, a raw 7-1 project at FSU, and
54. Caleb Love
Duke failing to win the ACC this season would be one of the most tragic underperformances of K’s career.
NBA Draft Big Board: Jabari Smith Jr. Is the New No. 1
The Auburn forward has scouts raving about his upside. See where other prospects land in our 2022 draft rankings.
www.si.com
1. Jabari Smith
2. Paolo Banchero
3. Chet Holmgren
4. Jaden Ivey
5. Johnny Davis, SG, Wisconsin, So
The numbers are great, as you would expect for someone who rises this high out of nowhere. They’re not crazy phenomenal, though, so I worry he doesn’t have the NBA prototype size (6-5) to warrant such a high pick as a guard who can’t really be your point guard.
6. Kendall Brown, F, Baylor, Fr
74% 2pt on high volume, 50% 3pt on very low volume. This is a high upside pick.
9. Patrick Baldwin
10. Trevor Keels
I can’t get behind this. 32% 3pt, 70% ft at Duke, consistent with the limited numbers available from high school. He’s 6-4 and a good playmaker, so to realize the value in picking him this high, he needs to play point in the NBA. That would make him a chunkier poor man’s of Russell Westbrook, without the otherworldly athleticism, but with potentially much better defense and fewer dumb turnovers.
17. Wendell Moore
This seems right. A lack of size, length and explosiveness will limit his upside, but he’s just so good at basketball now, and he’s shown so much rapid improvement, that it would be silly not to use a pick on him in the back half of the 1st round. His floor appears to be a positive 6th-8th man for an average NBA team. His ceiling appears to be a positive 6th-8th man for an average NBA team.
18. Mark Williams
32. AJ Griffin
If you were setting an over/under on where Griffin ends up, maybe this is the spot, but it seems highly unlikely he ends up anywhere close to here, for better or for worse. If he blows up, there’s a good chance Duke has 5 1st rounders on its roster this season, while no one else has more than 2. Duke will be the title favorite.
In the entire ACC aside from Duke, there are only 3 prospects in this 2-round mock, including a guard I’ve never heard of at ND, a raw 7-1 project at FSU, and
54. Caleb Love
Duke failing to win the ACC this season would be one of the most tragic underperformances of K’s career.
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childress22
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Moore and Keels are similar enough in size and NBA position that it's hard for me to see why someone would choose Keels when Moore is on the board. Moore is just a bit better at most of the things.
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Well, Keels is more than 2 years younger than Moore, so it’s not that hard to see a case for Keels over Moore. I wouldn’t agree with it, since Keels has so much negative potential as an irrational confidence chucker to go along with his positive gifts.
rome8180
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I would take AJ over Keels, even given the injury concerns and Keels' better defense. AJ has a better physical profile to play multiple positions. His jumpshot looks elite. If he regains anything close to his high school athleticism, you're looking at a 3 and D wing at the worst and potential star at the best.
childress22
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It's true that by their 10th year in the league or something, Keels's age would mean he's closer to his peak than Wendell. The first 6-7 years,of course, that would be reversed, and the next couple would be a wash.
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Age is an extremely important factor not because of the value you’re expecting to get during the first contract, but because of its impact on the variance in player outcomes, since 19-year-olds don’t develop on predictable linear paths. This is why every NBA front office takes age so strongly into account when drafting. It’s the main reason someone like Anthony Edwards goes #1 overall, as well as someone like Anthony Bennett.
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rome8180
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It all sort of depends on your team's situation and your philosophy on upside vs. floor. Personally, after a certain point in the draft I'd rather just take someone with a high floor who's ready to contribute right away. The likelihood of getting a franchise changing player at #17 is so small anyway that if I can draft someone with a 70% chance of being a rotation player on a great team I'd pick that over drafting someone with a 10% chance at stardom but high chance of uselessness.
Of course if you have two players who are equally good, you take the younger one. But if you're excusing a player being bad by saying "he's young and therefore has more time to achieve his potential than this older better player," I'm not sure the risk-reward calculation makes sense. Most players aren't on the team that drafted them with their second contract anyway. If you're a team drafting outside of the lottery, you might really be just a few solid starters away from contention to begin with. A solid player on a cheap rookie contract can be a great way of getting that solid starter.
Of course if you have two players who are equally good, you take the younger one. But if you're excusing a player being bad by saying "he's young and therefore has more time to achieve his potential than this older better player," I'm not sure the risk-reward calculation makes sense. Most players aren't on the team that drafted them with their second contract anyway. If you're a team drafting outside of the lottery, you might really be just a few solid starters away from contention to begin with. A solid player on a cheap rookie contract can be a great way of getting that solid starter.
rome8180
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In this case, I wouldn't take either Moore or Keels at #10. So it's moot. And I would take Moore higher because of the greater positional flexibility, regardless of age and what they've shown so far. Keels has a more narrow pathway to success.
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I think everyone here agrees on taking Moore over Keels at any spot in the draft, even #1 overall, if that’s the only 2 choices you have. Keels kinda sucks as a prospect until he shows some potential to shoot better. A more interesting question would be something like Moore vs. a freshman Grayson Allen, who was actually a very good overall player in a small sample, unlike Keels right now, but you have very little information in real games to go on for Allen.