Looking at DraftExpress now, this is one of the more intriguing drafts ever. Simmons has been saying this and even I think Simmons is too hyperbolic about this stuff, but now that I'm done following the college season, I see what he's talking about. There are a ton of forks in the road for franchises in this draft.
At the very top, Fultz and Ball are totally different prospects that fill the same spot for a franchise. Ball has more bust potential (LOL), but probably a higher ceiling for value to a team, because he's so unique in a world where there are a decent amount of worse versions of Russell Westbrook already. Fultz is such a safe choice, I don't believe anyone would take Ball over him.
At 3 and 4, you have the Josh Jackson or Tatum decision. I can't make a neutral assessment here, since I've seen Jackson play maybe 3 times in my life, but looking at the numbers only, I don't know why Jackson is above Tatum. Given that Tatum is 12 months younger and has a 2" wingspan advantage, to put Jackson above Tatum, Jackson must have been almost strictly better than Tatum this season. That's not the case. You have extreme bust potential with Jackson, seeing as he was a terrible 57% FT shooter to go along with his impressive 37% 3pt shooting. There are so many examples of guys with good 3pt shooting in college but with range that simply doesn't translate to the NBA - Justise Winslow is the obvious Duke example. I'd guess that for a lot of these types, poor FT shooting in college should've been a red flag. Tatum obviously doesn't have that same issue. If anything, his 85% FT shooting should signal that he can improve his range pretty easily with a good coaching staff around him.
At 5, 6 and 7, you have the run on guards. Monk, Fox, Smith. Such extreme strengths and weaknesses for Fox, such a boom or bust pick. Smith's biggest red flag is the same as Fultz's - how awful his team was. I don't think anyone in the NBA cares about that, and they probably shouldn't. I agree with Monk going first of the three. Easy potential as an elite 3-and-D SG, with bonus extreme potential if you can turn him into a PG. At 10, another PG in Ntilikina, about whom I can't even begin to pretend to know anything.
I think the guys with a really good chance of being above average starters end at 7. At 8, 9, 11 and 12 are the versatile forwards. Markkanen, the guy people want to be Dirk. Isaac, who kind of reminds me of Noah Vonleh due to the projected draft position and perceived strengths/weaknesses. That's not a flattering comparison for Isaac. Bridges, the freak athlete who is surprisingly not a bad shooter. Justin Jackson, the champion. I think that order is right. I wouldn't pick Jackson until much later, though. 12 seems absolutely crazy, given his age. The next 6 projected picks after Jackson are all 18-19 years old. Jackson is 23.
All of the organizations from pick 15-21 are competent and have a good amount of hope for the future. That's the sweet spot for Giles and Kennard to land. They're not projected to land there. From 22-30 (end of 1st round), my breakdown would be 6 competent/hopeful organizations, 3 incompetent/hopeless for several seasons at least (Nets, Magic, Nets). The holy grail, of course, is the Spurs at 29 (neither the Cavs nor the Warriors have a 1st round pick), assuming they don't trade the pick for cap space, which is probably what will happen. Giles would quickly become a 3 and D guy on the Spurs with elite defense and 40-45% 3pt shooting, then receive a $100 million guaranteed contract. Kennard would be properly hidden on defense and good for 3-4 huge 3s per game in the playoffs off the bench.
We know how this actually goes. They're going to the Nets and Magic. Both out of the league in 3 years, shortly after their careers at Duke would have ended had they stayed in school.
The most striking thing about the mock draft is how little franchises value big men anymore. There are plenty of stats by the smart NBA folks that show big men are basically being phased out of rotations across the league. Is Bam Adebayo really much worse as a prospect than Anthony Bennett coming out of college? Bennett was the overall 1. Four years later, Adebayo is projected 30.
