or maybe it was this one?
Postby SeanMayTriedToEatMe » Thu Nov 24, 2016 10:51 am
Time to check in with hoop-math.com to see if this senior captain is as dumb with shot selection as he looks...
http://www.hoop-math.com/Duke2017.php
Yes, he is that dumb with shot selection.
First, let's give Jones some credit - only 12% of his shots have been 2pt jumpers (i.e., not layups or 3s). He's smarter than any Duke player other than Jefferson in that respect. Let's not give Jones too much credit, though - he's shooting 29% on 2pt jumpers, which is by far the worst on the team, so that 12% number should be closer to 0% if Jones is really smart.
Now, let's understand how stupid this idiot has been in all other ways.
Last season, for a large sample size comparison:
http://www.hoop-math.com/Duke2016.php
22% of shots are at rim
40% FG at rim (atrocious; worst on team; next worst non-Thornton was 59% by Ingram, much higher)
17% FTA/FGA (worst on team; next worst non-Thornton was 30% by Kennard, much higher; means his drives to rim are not justified by drawing lots of fouls)
60% of shots are 3pt
42% 3FG (basic math - Jones scores over 1.2 points per 3pt attempt, whereas he scores 0.8 points per layup attempt, so in the best case scenario where he is successful at getting all the way to the rim instead of settling for a 2pt jumper or turning the ball over on a drive, he is costing Duke 0.4 points per possession on his drives; again, costing his team roughly 0.4 points on average is the best case scenario when he decides to drive)
This season:
32% of shots are at rim
47% FG at rim (still very bad, especially considering the relatively weak schedule thus far; tied for worst on team with Allen, who may as well be dead on the court; next worst is Vrankovic at 57%)
13% FTA/FGA (still worst on team by far; still doesn't justify drives to rim)
57% of shots are 3pt
41% 3FG (still great, still makes Jones look like an idiot for taking other shots)
Finally, let's try to give Jones some credit again - he does in fact take a lot of 3s and he doesn't try all that many layups, so generally, he has the right idea. The question becomes, is it feasible for a player like Jones, who is great on 3s but awful on any other shot, to be any more extreme with his preference for 3pt attempts? Maybe it's simply a necessity to drive enough to keep the defense honest so that Jones can continue to be so prolific from 3.
Can we find examples of 3pt specialists who are even more skewed than having double or nearly triple (Jones last season) the 3pt attempt rate compared with layup rate?
Yes, we can, so no, we shouldn't give Jones any credit for this awful shot selection.
You may recall a Duke player whose name has since been sullied by arguably the worst Duke basketball player ever, Derryck Thornton. In his senior season, Tyler Thornton, a basketball god of shot selection, was everything Jones should be on offense now.
Here are Tyler Thornton's numbers from the 2014 season:
http://www.hoop-math.com/Duke2014.php
11% of shots are at rim (wow!)
38% FG at rim (terrible, like Jones)
28% FTA/FGA (much better than Jones, but didn't tempt Thornton to drive more)
80% of shots are 3pt (3pt attempts almost EIGHT TIMES more frequent than layup attempts!)
45% 3FG (great, like Jones)
Here's the real ass-kicker: 67% of Thornton's layups were assisted, as opposed to being on individual forays to the basket not set up in the flow of the offense, whereas 11% of Jones's layups this season are assisted, and 19% of Jones's layups last season were assisted. Jones is actively, affirmatively, idiotically deciding to drive on his own and ignore the talent around him.
No worries, though. We have the best coaching staff in college basketball to teach Jones how to fix this. If everyone in the world can see the glaring problem, certainly they can. After four seasons, they will finally get his head on straight.
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