NBA

[DurhamSon]

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Boston really in rarefied air now. I wish this could be generated using the same 60 game benchmark for the other teams, but regardless we're squarely in territory now where it would be anomalous for them *not* to win the Championship. I'm not prevaricating anymore or relying on old narratives; this team will absolutely win it all barring injuries and we could be looking at the start of a mini-dynasty. Too many are over-indexed on past results with a different roster that it's actually become trendy to underplay them, and I think this is reflected in betting

While I agree with everything you're saying, is a mini-dynasty really possible given the salaries and the new cap restrictions? Seems like this team will have to be broken up pretty soon. Personally, I think the easy answer is to ship out Jaylen for several smaller contracts. But I wonder if Boston will have the balls for that, especially if they win this year.

Simmons on his podcast thinks they'll pay the $$$ to keep this team together if they make it all the way or close, fwiw.

 

[DurhamSon]

View attachment 2383


Boston really in rarefied air now. I wish this could be generated using the same 60 game benchmark for the other teams, but regardless we're squarely in territory now where it would be anomalous for them *not* to win the Championship. I'm not prevaricating anymore or relying on old narratives; this team will absolutely win it all barring injuries and we could be looking at the start of a mini-dynasty. Too many are over-indexed on past results with a different roster that it's actually become trendy to underplay them, and I think this is reflected in betting

Amazing. I don't think this team reaches the heights of that '96 Bulls squad, especially since they peaked in an era of a league watered down by expansion, but i'd say this is more impressive than the '97 Bulls or '17 Warriors which played in a league less talented (though '17 Warriors top two or three competition in the Cavs/Bulls/Spurs are probably better than the 2nd through 4th best teams now).

Firmly in "best team not to win a title" all-time black mark territory if they fail now, but at least among casuals the 73 win Warriors will never shed that distinction

 

[rome8180]

I'm a believer now. He's now making pullup jumpers at a high level. And the passing is ridiculous too. My only doubts revolve around health.

 

[rome8180]

View attachment 2383


Boston really in rarefied air now. I wish this could be generated using the same 60 game benchmark for the other teams, but regardless we're squarely in territory now where it would be anomalous for them *not* to win the Championship. I'm not prevaricating anymore or relying on old narratives; this team will absolutely win it all barring injuries and we could be looking at the start of a mini-dynasty. Too many are over-indexed on past results with a different roster that it's actually become trendy to underplay them, and I think this is reflected in betting

While I agree with everything you're saying, is a mini-dynasty really possible given the salaries and the new cap restrictions? Seems like this team will have to be broken up pretty soon. Personally, I think the easy answer is to ship out Jaylen for several smaller contracts. But I wonder if Boston will have the balls for that, especially if they win this year.

Simmons on his podcast thinks they'll pay the $$$ to keep this team together if they make it all the way or close, fwiw.

It wasn't the money that concerned me as much as the severe restrictions on team-building that result when you go over the 2nd apron. Their ability to build a competent bench will be almost nonexistent.

 

[DurhamSon]

Yes they would have to nail their draft picks at that point. If anyone is traded it will probably be Holiday

 

[rome8180]

Somehow Philly won in Dallas and NY won in Cleveland. Both these teams have been playing like shit lately. Embiid is not back, and Brunson got injured in this game. I'm pissed because these are games they should have lost. Had they lost then, Orlando would be in 5th and only half a game back from the Knicks for 4th.

 

[rome8180]

Good news is that OKC is up almost 20 in Phoenix. If they can hang onto that, it creates a little more wiggle room for the Pelicans in 5th.

 

[Pantone287]

OKC holds on. Wild stat from that game - Nurkic had 31 rebounds in 32 minutes. Most in 14 years, and most in that quantity of minutes since Bill Russell.

 

[rome8180]

OKC holds on. Wild stat from that game - Nurkic had 31 rebounds in 32 minutes. Most in 14 years, and most in that quantity of minutes since Bill Russell.

Yeah, I think OKC is going to struggle with some of the really big teams if they're in the playoffs. They're 29th in rebound percentage. They're bad on both the defensive and offensive glass.

 

[SeanMayTriedToEatMe]

The Bucks are clear title favorites and the best team in the East.

 

[rome8180]

Until they have to make even a single adjustment in a playoff series.

 

[rome8180]

Interesting stuff in this one. Quoting from memory here, but when you remove the bottom six teams the Celtics still have a historically great net rating. They're 41-11 and have a +11 net rating. The Bucks meanwhile are beating up on the bottom feeders and squeaking by against the good teams. They're still 27-13 against the non-historically terrible teams, but they only have a +1 net rating.

One reason for concern about the Celtics is the high 3pt volume. They make 16.8 threes per game. The highest ever number of makes for a champion was 14.4. That was actually the Bucks in 2021. Fwiw, that Bucks team had a historically bad shooting run in the playoffs and still survived thanks to their defense.

When you couple Boston's high number of 3pt makes with their low rim frequency, there's reason to believe 2-3 bad shooting games in a series could knock them out. A couple of positives though: 1) 86% of their 3pt attempts are open to wide open, so they're clearly generating good looks; 2) they have a high FG% at the rim.

Unsurprisingly, the Celtics are 23-1 when they make 40%+ of their threes and are 7-10 when they shoot below 30%. While I'm sure this isn't unusual, because the Celtics are so reliant on the three for offense, it could make a bad shooting night more damaging.

Lastly, both hosts on the podcast agreed that Jaylen Brown was the least important Celtic in the starting 5.

 

[rome8180]

The Celtics may have choked away a huge lead, but the Pelicans did win by over 40 on the road against the Raptors. Trey Murphy hit 10 threes.

 

[rome8180]

And then there's this. I've been banging the drum about Orlando's chances to climb in the standings.

 

[rome8180]

They've had a very easy schedule during this stretch, but even so. That's how you get a good record. Play at least .500 against the good teams and beat all the bad teams.

 

[DurhamSon]

Everything setting up for a glide path for Boston to at least get to the conference finals. Beat up on some first round fodder like Atlanta or Chicago, then a Knicks and Magic team that can win a game or even two but just won't be able to hang over the course of a seven game series.

Meanwhile their stiffest competition in Milwaukee, Miami and Cleveland is all on the other side of the bracket, having to play through Indy, Philly, and each other just to *get* to the conference finals.

The zero excuse year for the Celtics continues

 

[CK86]

 

[CK86]

Jeez, just saw this. Sucks for the Wolves.

 

[rome8180]

Everything setting up for a glide path for Boston to at least get to the conference finals. Beat up on some first round fodder like Atlanta or Chicago, then a Knicks and Magic team that can win a game or even two but just won't be able to hang over the course of a seven game series.

Meanwhile their stiffest competition in Milwaukee, Miami and Cleveland is all on the other side of the bracket, having to play through Indy, Philly, and each other just to *get* to the conference finals.

The zero excuse year for the Celtics continues

Yeah, I mean if the standings stay as is it's perfect. But I'm a bit worried Miami will make it up to 5th. They would wax Orlando, which would suck for Orlando, but also for Boston.

The first round opponent for Boston could be anyone from Philly with Embiid just coming back to Chicago. I think the most likely outcome is Indy, which is fine.

 

[rome8180]

I would definitely prefer Orlando to play the Knicks to Miami. Barring significant injury, Orlando will still lose, but I think they match up better with them than Miami. NY is a big bruising team, but so is Orlando. NY's best offense comes through Brunson. Orlando has great defensive guards to throw on him. It would be an ugly series, and I think Orlando could win two games. The Paolo-Randle matchup is interesting, and I expect Paolo would win it given Randle's awful playoff performances so far. We haven't seen Paolo in the playoffs but he does seem to rise to the occasion, as lame as that analysis is.