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Pomeroy

Re: Pomeroy 2012-2013

Louisville's def eff is probably the best since UCLA's dynasty by a large margin, so I would expect them to fall as that number rises to a reasonable level. Unsustainable.
 
Re: Pomeroy 2012-2013

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Someone raising his kid right.
 
Re: Pomeroy 2012-2013

CMon said:
Up to #3 offense and #8 defense. I figured our numbers would even out with everyone else once our schedule eased up a bit. Definitely expect the offense in the top 3 and defense in the top 10, maybe 5 from here on out.
Click to expand...

Technically our offense fell a spot after we shot badly from everywhere but three.

Our defense has jumped from like 18 to 8 in two games though.
 
Re: Pomeroy 2012-2013

Did IU play today? Because I'm finding it difficult to understand how their defense jumped ahead of ours since after our game last night. Last night, we were tied.
 
Re: Pomeroy 2012-2013

They played yesterday.
 
Re: Pomeroy 2012-2013

We last played 2 days ago.
 
Re: Pomeroy 2012-2013

Also, games not including duke or Indiana can still effect the adjusted efficiencies of duke and Indiana.
 
Re: Pomeroy 2012-2013

SeanMayTriedToEatMe said:
Louisville's def eff is probably the best since UCLA's dynasty by a large margin, so I would expect them to fall as that number rises to a reasonable level. Unsustainable.
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Why is Louisville's adjusted defensive efficiency rated so high? According to Ken Pom's advanced numbers, what does Louisville do so well on defense?
 
Re: Pomeroy 2012-2013

It's a pretty good feeling know we've defeated 5 of the Top 12 teams in the country.
 
Re: Pomeroy 2012-2013

Pomeroy's explanation for why he weights with preseason projections this late in the season. This isn't a fun or easy read. The plots near the end tell the story.
http://kenpom.com/blog/index.php/weblog ... why_weight

Nate Silver's studies show that Pomeroy should actually use some preseason weight until the end of the season. I think it's clear that Duke is much better than the projection even with typical regression to the projection, so the weights hurt Duke in particular, but there are 300+ other teams that influence Duke's rating indirectly which Pomeroy has to worry about.
 
Re: Pomeroy 2012-2013

Excellent article.

I believe KenPom also did an article awhile back showing how much better the preseason polls were at predicting post season success than the final polls.

As a general rule, "They are who we thought they were."
 
Re: Pomeroy 2012-2013

That is very interesting. One thing I don't have much of a handle on is how the preseason projections are actually done. I mean I assume that Ken Pomeroy does not fancy himself a talent scout and is not making any sort of qualitative assessment of teams or players. Or is he? How do you go about projecting, for instance, what Kentucky would do this year with a lineup dominated by guys who have never played college basketball?
 
Re: Pomeroy 2012-2013

DrKlahn said:
That is very interesting. One thing I don't have much of a handle on is how the preseason projections are actually done. I mean I assume that Ken Pomeroy does not fancy himself a talent scout and is not making any sort of qualitative assessment of teams or players. Or is he? How do you go about projecting, for instance, what Kentucky would do this year with a lineup dominated by guys who have never played college basketball?
Click to expand...
Exactly. And I still take issue with Pomeroy calling his ratings "2013 college basketball ratings" when he is using data from outside of this season for the ratings. I understand that the preseason weighting makes things less chaotic early in the season, but it would just be my preference to see ratings based solely on what has actually happened in this season. I think it's funny to see the crazy jumps or falls in the ratings as a team goes from playing one or two good games to playing a horrible game in their first two or three. It wouldn't make me think less of his system if things were more "volatile" early on.

Does Pomeroy announce when his preseason projections are completely out of his ratings?

(And just like I do on TDD when his ratings are brought up, I reiterate that I think his site is one of the best out there, and I very much enjoy it. I do not discount it. There is just that one thing I don't like about it.)
 
Re: Pomeroy 2012-2013

Duke slides all the way down to #4 after yesterday's devastating win over Santa Clara.
 
Re: Pomeroy 2012-2013

Defense looked more like last season's. Makes sense we would drop a little after that.
 
Re: Pomeroy 2012-2013

We need to play defense like we did against Cornell in the next game.

Our rebounding is getting better though. We are now outrebounding our opponents by .8.
 
Re: Pomeroy 2012-2013

Heading into their game vs UNC, Virginia has taken over the ethereal crown of 2nd best team in the ACC, on the strength of a 2 point loss to Old Dominion (?) and a 35 point win over Wofford. Yes, the 2nd best program in the state/commonwealth of Virginia, who lost to Delaware at home, is the 2nd best team in this year's ACC.
 
Re: Pomeroy 2012-2013

Looking back at kenpom 2010 and am still astounded that out of our 6 games, we played #6, #8, #12, #15, and #16.

What a gauntlet.
 
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