StopThePumpFakesShav
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Oklahoma could move to 8 after this performance.
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This is a good day. The stats at hoop-math.com look accurate to me, in line with the numbers I have, so I'm going to trust them instead of charting the shot data myself.
Some observations:
1. Team Defense (http://hoop-math.com/leader_d2015.php)
Virginia and Kentucky are top 3 in FG% at rim, both around 41%. UNC is #30 at 50%. Duke is in the #72-75 range, at 53% (the site only considers numbers to the tenth). NC Central is apparently stealing a lot of in-state rim protecting talent from Duke; they are #8.
It gets worse for Duke when looking at prevention of attempts at the rim. Duke is #214-216 in %shots at rim, at 37%. This stat doesn't appear to be as strongly correlated to overall defensive efficiency as FG% at rim, though. Kentucky and Virginia don't do so well in this stat, either. UNC is #6-7.
Of course, Kentucky is #1 by a large margin at FG% 2pt jumpers, at 23%. Pray to Thornton for some regression there. Duke is #298, at 39%. Therein lies the problem. Apparently, the juggernauts at Dartmouth, High Point, Saint Peter's and Longwood do a better job of defending 2pt jumpers than Duke does. Or we could get some upward regression there. It's great that Duke is excellent at forcing teams to take 2pt jumpers - they are #58 at %shots 2pt jumpers - but when those shots are being made at one of the highest rates in the country, the team isn't being rewarded for what seems to be a solid defensive approach.
Many people have observed that Duke looks bad in transition defense. The eye test turns out to be absolutely correct in this case. Duke is #295-297 in transition eFG%, at 59%. Kentucky is #3, at 38%, and UNC is #50, at 46%. That tells me this is not a size issue, where big teams can't get back in transition. This is probably a laziness issue. It's fine if Okafor is too tired carrying the offense to run 90 feet from basket to basket in transition. It's not fine if everyone else is too lazy to get back.
2. Team Offense (http://hoop-math.com/leader_o2015.php)
I don't care about Duke's offense. It's fine. Based on these numbers, they could take a bit more 3s and shots at the rim, and a bit fewer 2pt jumpers. I think they'll figure that out.
3. Individual Offense (http://hoop-math.com/Duke2015.php)
Winslow is shooting 12% on 2pt jumpers. Please stop. Whenever the ball comes out of his hands on a 2pt jumper, Duke loses nearly one full point. You can basically take whatever you think the spread should be for a game assuming no Duke player is a moron, estimate how many 2pt jumpers Winslow will take, and then subtract that number from that spread.
Jefferson is shooting a respectable 42% on 2pt jumpers. That's 3rd on the team behind Okafor (55%) and Cook (52%) (I'm not counting Marshall's 50% or Matt's 50% since I assume the sample size is extremely small). He can probably develop college 3pt range easily.
Tyus and Sulaimon are less accurate on 2pt jumpers than on 3s, yet they take a lot of 2pt jumpers (nearly a third of their shots). Please stop.
Plumlee, Jefferson, Okafor, Cook and Winslow are all amazing at the rim, at 82%, 75%, 75%, 73% and 71%, respectively. Do more of that.
Some observations:
1. Team Defense (http://hoop-math.com/leader_d2015.php)
Virginia and Kentucky are top 3 in FG% at rim, both around 41%. UNC is #30 at 50%. Duke is in the #72-75 range, at 53% (the site only considers numbers to the tenth). NC Central is apparently stealing a lot of in-state rim protecting talent from Duke; they are #8.
It gets worse for Duke when looking at prevention of attempts at the rim. Duke is #214-216 in %shots at rim, at 37%. This stat doesn't appear to be as strongly correlated to overall defensive efficiency as FG% at rim, though. Kentucky and Virginia don't do so well in this stat, either. UNC is #6-7.
Of course, Kentucky is #1 by a large margin at FG% 2pt jumpers, at 23%. Pray to Thornton for some regression there. Duke is #298, at 39%. Therein lies the problem. Apparently, the juggernauts at Dartmouth, High Point, Saint Peter's and Longwood do a better job of defending 2pt jumpers than Duke does. Or we could get some upward regression there. It's great that Duke is excellent at forcing teams to take 2pt jumpers - they are #58 at %shots 2pt jumpers - but when those shots are being made at one of the highest rates in the country, the team isn't being rewarded for what seems to be a solid defensive approach.
Many people have observed that Duke looks bad in transition defense. The eye test turns out to be absolutely correct in this case. Duke is #295-297 in transition eFG%, at 59%. Kentucky is #3, at 38%, and UNC is #50, at 46%. That tells me this is not a size issue, where big teams can't get back in transition. This is probably a laziness issue. It's fine if Okafor is too tired carrying the offense to run 90 feet from basket to basket in transition. It's not fine if everyone else is too lazy to get back.
2. Team Offense (http://hoop-math.com/leader_o2015.php)
I don't care about Duke's offense. It's fine. Based on these numbers, they could take a bit more 3s and shots at the rim, and a bit fewer 2pt jumpers. I think they'll figure that out.
3. Individual Offense (http://hoop-math.com/Duke2015.php)
Winslow is shooting 12% on 2pt jumpers. Please stop. Whenever the ball comes out of his hands on a 2pt jumper, Duke loses nearly one full point. You can basically take whatever you think the spread should be for a game assuming no Duke player is a moron, estimate how many 2pt jumpers Winslow will take, and then subtract that number from that spread.
Jefferson is shooting a respectable 42% on 2pt jumpers. That's 3rd on the team behind Okafor (55%) and Cook (52%) (I'm not counting Marshall's 50% or Matt's 50% since I assume the sample size is extremely small). He can probably develop college 3pt range easily.
Tyus and Sulaimon are less accurate on 2pt jumpers than on 3s, yet they take a lot of 2pt jumpers (nearly a third of their shots). Please stop.
Plumlee, Jefferson, Okafor, Cook and Winslow are all amazing at the rim, at 82%, 75%, 75%, 73% and 71%, respectively. Do more of that.
StopThePumpFakesShav
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I wonder how the FG% at rim numbers change depending on who's in the game. My suspicion is that having Plumlee out there as opposed to Okafor is helpful, at least in the sense that Plumlee is probably able to be a bit more aggressive preventing attempts because he is less concerned with fouling. I would also think a perimeter of M. Jones/Sulaimon would be better for the layup attempt statistic than the starting backcourt. This is kind of what we feared a bit in the preseason, to the extent that's true.
I think in point #1 it's worth mentioning that DREB% is 78th in the country. I guess if you're not going to contest shots at the rim aggressively than you better grab a higher percentage of the misses. You can't be bad at both and expect it not to hurt.
I think in point #1 it's worth mentioning that DREB% is 78th in the country. I guess if you're not going to contest shots at the rim aggressively than you better grab a higher percentage of the misses. You can't be bad at both and expect it not to hurt.
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For perspective on how great Duke's offense has been at the rim, Lebron shot 72% at the rim during one of his MVP seasons, and that number is relatively astronomical. All three of Duke's bigs are bettering Lebron's number, Cook is as well (which would be expected based on the eye test if you have ever watched how great Cook is at finishing at the rim), and Winslow is just under Lebron's number.
Cook is just a monster on offense. It's kind of a shame he plays for Duke instead of a midmajor or a very good power team that could use an alpha scorer in the backcourt, like Michigan State or South Carolina.
Cook is just a monster on offense. It's kind of a shame he plays for Duke instead of a midmajor or a very good power team that could use an alpha scorer in the backcourt, like Michigan State or South Carolina.
DurhamSon
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I gotta say, I don't hate it if 2pt% allowed from 3 feet or more is our biggest weakness. I mean, it sucks compared to Kentucky which seemingly has no weakness, but it's probably on my top list of shots to give up if there is something we must let.
Hopefully that regresses down at the same time UNC's fucking ridiculous luck against the volume of 3pt% shots against them goes down. Where's Gassoway on that shit?
Hopefully that regresses down at the same time UNC's fucking ridiculous luck against the volume of 3pt% shots against them goes down. Where's Gassoway on that shit?
DurhamSon
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What's up with the disparity between the aggregate defensive rankings from last year and this year though? Last year our Deff% would have ranked 3rd or 4th in the county, while right now we seem to be floating around this 14-17 range. Did teams just get a lot shittier at shooting?
StopThePumpFakesShav
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I don't know if based on the way Pomeroy has been fucking with the numbers, you can compare Pyth ratings across different years in an apples-to-apples way. But if you can, damn. Duke's Pyth right now is higher than the final Pyth of any other team in any other year since and including the 2009 season except one team....2013 National Champion L'Ville. So it's higher than UK 2012, Duke 2010 and UNC 2009. Kentucky and Virginia right now have higher Pyths than even 2013 L'Ville.
I'm also not sure if the top Pyths generally trend downward as the season progresses into conference play either.
I'm also not sure if the top Pyths generally trend downward as the season progresses into conference play either.
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Roy Williams offense:
#321 %shots at rim
#342 %shots 3pt
#2 %shots 2pt jumpers
#118 FG% at rim
#284 FG% 3pt
#12 FG% 2pt jumpers
Well, they will shoot something like 30 for 60 on 2pt jumpers in each Duke game and probably beat Duke that way, but we can take solace in the fact that Roy is possibly the dumbest coach in existence at any level of basketball. Some dumb UNC homer could argue Roy is coaching to his team's strengths, but why would you recruit a team full of players whose only offensive strength is 2pt jumpers?
I would stop watching Duke basketball altogether if someone like this were ever our coach.
#321 %shots at rim
#342 %shots 3pt
#2 %shots 2pt jumpers
#118 FG% at rim
#284 FG% 3pt
#12 FG% 2pt jumpers
Well, they will shoot something like 30 for 60 on 2pt jumpers in each Duke game and probably beat Duke that way, but we can take solace in the fact that Roy is possibly the dumbest coach in existence at any level of basketball. Some dumb UNC homer could argue Roy is coaching to his team's strengths, but why would you recruit a team full of players whose only offensive strength is 2pt jumpers?
I would stop watching Duke basketball altogether if someone like this were ever our coach.
childress22
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SeanMayTriedToEatMe said:
Right. I mean, those are relative strengths. Even their team still shoots 61% at the rim and 43% on 2-pt jumpers.
physicsfactor
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Yeah, those numbers make me lol at Roy, but they're a little depressing in that, yes, we will probably lose a game to UNC where they make a bunch of pull-up 15-20 footers or post-up turnaround jumpers while we brick all of our threes that they stupidly allow.
DurhamSon
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That reminds me, who are the worst scrubs that have gone off against us an beaten us, only to continue scrubbing it up the rest of the season? I remember McDonald and Tokoto hitting some sweet threes and long twos against us in the Dean Dome last year.
I feel like we've made some terrible Wake Forest players look like future pros in the past, but nothing comes to mind.
I feel like we've made some terrible Wake Forest players look like future pros in the past, but nothing comes to mind.
physicsfactor
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He didn't "go off" but IIRC Bobby Frasor hit a couple threes at Duke in 2006.
StopThePumpFakesShav
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We let Tyler Cavanagh from Wake score 20 on us last season in that debacle. We let Jaron Blossingame from Clemson get a season high 14 (which he did tie once later in the year) against us in our loss to them. This is fun.
