Pomeroy

[DurhamSon]

Whatever change was made really fucked over Louisville. Their offense has sunk like a stone well out of contender range.

 

[ZackM]

UNC got the same bump I was alluding to earlier, too.

 

[ZackM]

UK with a 34% chance of going unbeaten.

 

[DurhamSon]

UK with a 34% chance of going unbeaten.

Becomes damn near half if they beat Louisville. Shit.

 

[ZackM]

His rating just went wacko again...back to where they were.

He thought Kentucky as a 74% favorite over UL was too much.

 

[ZackM]

Down to a 10% chance of going undefeated.

 

[aiw]

If I'm looking at it right, he has ratings for teams as each game happens going back to 2011. Hopefully, he'll have 2010 soon, so we can see where Duke's opponents were rated going into the tournament.

 

[aiw]

 

[aiw]

One silver lining in our awful FT defense (#340 out of 351) is that we are 8th best in FTA/FGA.

 

[aiw]

Closing in on 50% chance to win the Louisville game, but down to a 30% chance to win the UVA game.

I can't believe we get both away only. I guess that could work out for us though as we don't have to play them twice.

 

[rome8180]

Yeah, but I'd rather have two reasonably surefire wins against top 10 teams.

 

[aiw]

I agree, though UVA would still worry me a lot.

 

[DurhamSon]

Toledo in and preseason ratings are washed out.

I wish we could cut down the turnovers that really hurt given our transition D issues, but if you had told me at the start of the year we were a top 15 defense in the country, i'd have gladly taken it.

 

[rome8180]

I can live with those results.

 

[DrKlahn]

Holding Toledo to a point per possession is a decent night's work. It's not special or anything, but there's certainly nothing wrong with it. It was their 3rd worst offensive game so far.

 

[torontoduke]

Good rebounding, decent perimeter D - the transition D needs to be shored up, though

 

[rome8180]

Holding Toledo to a point per possession is a decent night's work. It's not special or anything, but there's certainly nothing wrong with it. It was their 3rd worst offensive game so far.

Basically was terrible defense for 15-20 minutes (from the 15 minute mark of the first half until about the same point in the second half). Then very solid defense the rest of the time.

 

[aiw]

St. Johns has replaced UVA as the 3rd best defense. Yay!

 

[aiw]

D down to 16. UNC may pass us when they get inputted.

 

[DrKlahn]

UNC is a big time regression candidate, I wouldn't worry about them. They should be giving up like 6 points a game more than they are if 3PT% was normalized.