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The potential Duke Killer on Troy is Jordon Varnado, who does not primarily play C but spends about 1/3 of his time there. 40% FT rate, top 500 in the country. He's also their best and most valuable overall player. Good rebounder, good shotblocker. Only a sophomore. I assume he will win Sun Belt player of the year as a senior. The Duke Killer threat here is not too worrisome.
There is some intriguing Duke Killer potential on Marquette, but not really. Their starting PG is a tiny junior, Andrew Rowsey. In Big East play, he had a 47% FT rate. He shoots 93% from the line, which is 4th in the nation. He shoots 45% from 3, which is 34th. What makes me less worried is that he only takes 10% of his shots at the rim, so I don't know how he gets fouled so much. Compare his shot frequency at the rim with the proven PG Duke Killers:
Bruce Brown 48%
Bryant Crawford 39%
John Gillon 36%
Shelton Mitchell 44%
Xavier Rathan-Mayes 30%
Dennis Smith 37%
Rowsey is mainly a threat from 3. A huge threat. But Duke's defense is tailored to stop a PG like him.
South Carolina has their key offensive player at the wrong position to beat Duke. Sindarius Thornwell, SEC POY, is a SF in the Matt Jones goldilocks zone. 6-5, 211. There is a minor Duke Killer threat at PF/C in Chris Silva, who only plays about half the game. His FT rate in the SEC was 70%. This is an awful offensive team overall, so it would be more about Duke's offense being able to score on their #3 overall defense.
The clearest potential Duke Killer at C in the entire bracket is Edrice "Bam" Adebayo on Kentucky. 88% FT rate over the entire season, which was good for #2 in the nation. 119 offensive rating, 20% usage. Top 500 in both offensive and defensive rebounding rate. An easy pick for Duke Killer at PG is De'Aaron Fox, also on Kentucky. Fox's 42% FT rate in SEC play was #19 in the conference. His assist rate of 28% in SEC play was #7 in the conference. 49% of his shots are at the rim. He hates 3s, and 3s hate him. I would guess that, among the top few seed lines, Fox is the Duke Killer to end all Duke Killers.
Even if Duke were to make a run to the Final Four, the dilemma for Duke fans will be whether to root for Kentucky or UNC in their near-certainty of an Elite Eight matchup. Do you root for a team that Duke almost literally has zero chance against head-to-head, in Kentucky, or do you root for UNC to make the Final Four? I think the easy answer is to root against UNC in that scenario, but what if it were in the game directly leading to Duke? Would we still be fine with Kentucky winning then, thereby ensuring that Duke cannot win the national title?
There is some intriguing Duke Killer potential on Marquette, but not really. Their starting PG is a tiny junior, Andrew Rowsey. In Big East play, he had a 47% FT rate. He shoots 93% from the line, which is 4th in the nation. He shoots 45% from 3, which is 34th. What makes me less worried is that he only takes 10% of his shots at the rim, so I don't know how he gets fouled so much. Compare his shot frequency at the rim with the proven PG Duke Killers:
Bruce Brown 48%
Bryant Crawford 39%
John Gillon 36%
Shelton Mitchell 44%
Xavier Rathan-Mayes 30%
Dennis Smith 37%
Rowsey is mainly a threat from 3. A huge threat. But Duke's defense is tailored to stop a PG like him.
South Carolina has their key offensive player at the wrong position to beat Duke. Sindarius Thornwell, SEC POY, is a SF in the Matt Jones goldilocks zone. 6-5, 211. There is a minor Duke Killer threat at PF/C in Chris Silva, who only plays about half the game. His FT rate in the SEC was 70%. This is an awful offensive team overall, so it would be more about Duke's offense being able to score on their #3 overall defense.
The clearest potential Duke Killer at C in the entire bracket is Edrice "Bam" Adebayo on Kentucky. 88% FT rate over the entire season, which was good for #2 in the nation. 119 offensive rating, 20% usage. Top 500 in both offensive and defensive rebounding rate. An easy pick for Duke Killer at PG is De'Aaron Fox, also on Kentucky. Fox's 42% FT rate in SEC play was #19 in the conference. His assist rate of 28% in SEC play was #7 in the conference. 49% of his shots are at the rim. He hates 3s, and 3s hate him. I would guess that, among the top few seed lines, Fox is the Duke Killer to end all Duke Killers.
Even if Duke were to make a run to the Final Four, the dilemma for Duke fans will be whether to root for Kentucky or UNC in their near-certainty of an Elite Eight matchup. Do you root for a team that Duke almost literally has zero chance against head-to-head, in Kentucky, or do you root for UNC to make the Final Four? I think the easy answer is to root against UNC in that scenario, but what if it were in the game directly leading to Duke? Would we still be fine with Kentucky winning then, thereby ensuring that Duke cannot win the national title?
