2018 NCAA Tournament

[SeanMayTriedToEatMe]

SIAP, don’t forget that Oklahoma has an ex-NBA coach who will hack-A late in games. Duke would need to be up significantly late vs OU, or Duval and Bagley will get embarrassed.

K would never leave bad FT shooters on the court in that situation.

 

[StopThePumpFakesShav]

2:45 pm Thursday

 

[physicsfactor]

Lol, SM.

Also, I know OU sucks, but I don’t want to face the one guy who could possibly get hot and torch Duke’s packed in zone from Curry range.

 

[2001Dukechamps]

We're not making it past MSU.

People are strangely overlooking the fact we needed Grayson and Trevon to simultaneously play the best game of their lives to beat them.

Grayson Allen had 37 points(only 1 TO) and Trevon Duval had 17 points, 10 assists(only 3 TOs) and 6 steals.

We also were without Bagley for 32 minutes of that game.

Bagley's winshare pales in comparison to Allen/Duval simultaneously releasing their A+ games in a single night.

If the trade off for Bagley not playing in a Duke uniform is the MSU game version of Allen and Duval, I'd take that trade without thinking twice and we'd win the NCAA championship relatively easy.

 

[TS9]

The obsession with MSU right now is bizarre. Duke has advanced to a grand total of three Sweet 16s as a 2 seed over the past two decades, and this year's team is not really in a condition that inspires confidence entering the tournament. I will assume we beat Iona, but then we are going to have to sweat out a really difficult game on Saturday before MSU is of concern at all.

 

[DurhamSon]

The obsession with MSU right now is bizarre. Duke has advanced to a grand total of three Sweet 16s as a 2 seed over the past two decades, and this year's team is not really in a condition that inspires confidence entering the tournament. I will assume we beat Iona, but then we are going to have to sweat out a really difficult game on Saturday before MSU is of concern at all.

At some point the schtick gets out of hand. We're like 99% favorites over Iona, and presumably would be 9 to 13 point favorites in R2, which probably translates to at least 85-90% odds.

 

[rome8180]

I think this team is way less susceptible to a 2nd round flameout than any of those others. Several reasons for that: offensive rebounding, defense, post scoring, etc.

 

[rome8180]

Also, we've never been #3 on Kenpom as a 2 seed.

 

[2001Dukechamps]

Yeah we're going to coast to the S16.

 

[Slap the Floor]

FWIW: Loyola-Chicago, the #11 in the South is only separated by 5 spots on KP from their first round match-up Miami. Loyola Chicago is #41 on KP. Miami is also an extremely low IQ team. I think this is a safe pick for a first round upset.

 

[SeanMayTriedToEatMe]

538 model:
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2018-march-madness-predictions/

61% chance of Duke vs. MSU happening. 43% UNC Michigan.

 

[Slap the Floor]

I'm shocked UNC is so low.

 

[DrKlahn]

Am I right here that every higher seeded team is actually favored, except for a couple of pk’s?

 

[Slap the Floor]

It should be noted that the only 2 seed to win the National Championship in the KenPom era was UCONN in 2004. A 3 seed has won it 3 times (Syracuse, Florida, UCONN)

 

[dukeboy911]

I'm shocked UNC is so low.

Seriously. Maybe our bias is showing, but those numbers are definitely lower than I expected.

 

[Devilsforlife]

It should be noted that the only 2 seed to win the National Championship in the KenPom era was UCONN in 2004. A 3 seed has won it 3 times (Syracuse, Florida, UCONN)

Villanova was a 2-seed in 2016 and won the national title.

 

[dukeboy911]

lol @ how weak that West region is according to 538.

3 of the top 5 teams are of course all in the Midwest.

 

[Slap the Floor]

It should be noted that the only 2 seed to win the National Championship in the KenPom era was UCONN in 2004. A 3 seed has won it 3 times (Syracuse, Florida, UCONN)

Villanova was a 2-seed in 2016 and won the national title.

ugh delete delete

edit: Despite being a 2 seed, Villanova finished #1 in KenPom and had the #3 offense and #7 defense. Duke currently has the #3 offense and #7 defense, but is ranked #3 on KP. It's also important to recognize our offense has been terrible recently so those numbers may not seem as compatible as they appear, but still worth recognizing imo.

 

[DrKlahn]

ESPN guys all picking an outlaw program to win. So obviously not UNC

 

[CMon85]

Now I want to play MSU more than any other team. Everyone picked them to beat us.