2018 NCAA Tournament

[aiw]

here ya go

 

[LastHearth]

Right now I'm counting 14 teams out side of the Kenpom 100 in the tourney, that means even with the play-in games, it's hard to imagine any top 3 seeds losing in the first round.

NC-Central 308
LIU Brooklyn 251
Texas Southern 249
UMBC 184
Radford 170
Lipscomb 164
Wright st 136
Iona 135
Irvine/Fullerton 134/165
Harvard/Penn 127/147
Charleston 120
Marshall 115
SF Austin 112
Tx Ar/Gerogia St 101/112

 

[Slap the Floor]

I'm glad aiw made this thread.

 

[DukeCrow]

That's all I needed to hear fellas. We can all rest easy now, lol. JRBlizzy2DaDome has spoken.

 

[DukeCrow]

We all know how foolproof data mining can be.

 

[SeanMayTriedToEatMe]

Duke’s history as a non-1-seed in the conveniently verified Kenpom era:

2003 - 3 - L in S16 to Nick Collison’s Kansas
2007 - 6 - L in R1 to Eric Maynor’s VCU
2008 - 2 - L in R2 to Joe Alexander’s West Virginia
2009 - 2 - L in S16 to Dante Cunningham’s Villanova
2012 - 2 - L in R1 to CJ McCollum’s Lehigh
2013 - 2 - No result in E8
2014 - 3 - L in R1 to Jakob Gollon’s Mercer
2016 - 4 - L in S16 to Dillon Brooks’ Oregon
2017 - 2 - L in R2 to Sindarius Thornwell’s South Carolina

Average result as a 2-seed is closer to L in R2 than L in S16.

 

[CMon85]

That's so sad.

 

[SeanMayTriedToEatMe]

A very, very interesting historical tidbit is that, in 7 of Duke's 9 non-1-seed flameouts, the best player on the opponent had double letters in his name. For example, Russ Smith and CJ McCollum. This still applies even if you replace Dante Cunningham with Scottie Reynolds as the best player on 2009 Villanova.

This is statistically significant, as only 23.8% of players in Division I since 2003 have had double letters in their preferred names.

Your mind may be racing right now, so I will save you the trouble: UNC's projected best player in the NCAA Tournament is Joel Berry. You may believe Duke is in the clear against their widely predicted 3-seed, MSU, but the reality is that MSU's best player this season has been neither of their best draft prospects - Miles Bridges or Jaren Jackson - but, rather, Cassius Winston.

 

[Inveigle]

A very, very interesting historical tidbit is that, in 7 of Duke's 9 non-1-seed flameouts, the best player on the opponent had double letters in his name. For example, Russ Smith and CJ McCollum. This still applies even if you replace Dante Cunningham with Scottie Reynolds as the best player on 2009 Villanova.

This is statistically significant, as only 23.8% of players in Division I since 2003 have had double letters in their preferred names.

Your mind may be racing right now, so I will save you the trouble: UNC's projected best player in the NCAA Tournament is Joel Berry. You may believe Duke is in the clear against their widely predicted 3-seed, MSU, but the reality is that MSU's best player this season has been neither of their best draft prospects - Miles Bridges or Jaren Jackson - but, rather, Cassius Winston.

But we have Grayson Allen and Wendell Carter, but I do wish we had Christian Laettner

 

[SeanMayTriedToEatMe]

Don't forget Marvin Bagley III.

 

[StopThePumpFakesShav]

Collin Sexton in round 2. Game.

 

[ZackM]

This is the type of analysis that makes DF a step above everyone else.

 

[sivartrenrag]

Wishing we could add J. J. Reddick to the squad to carry us to victory.

 

[burksballer20]

Don't forget about Sindarius Thornwell

 

[Inveigle]

Don't forget Marvin Bagley III.

On a side note, the Last time I went to Chick-fil-A and they took my order and asked me for a name I gave them Marvin Bagley III, and it was great when they called it out once my order was ready

 

[skins]

Ha, I bet some people were like “wait, that’s NOT Marvin Bagley III LOL”

 

[LastHearth]

With Georgia St leading by 17 in the second half I'm going to call it for them.
Final list:

NC-Central 308
LIU Brooklyn 251
Texas Southern 249
UMBC 184
Radford 170
Fullerton 165
Lipscomb 164
Wright St 136
Iona 135
Penn 127
Charleston 120
Marshall 115
SF Austin 112
Georgia St. 102

14 teams out of the KP top 100 has got to be somekind of record right?

ETA: I went back to look at KP 2010-2017 and found the most before this year to be 12, the fewest being 8 and the average is around 10. So indeed this the weakest bottom of the bracket in many years.

 

[DukeCrow]

You know they're going to give us MSU as our 3. I still find it funny that everyone thinks they should be a 3 and UNC a 2. I think they should be flipped. I mean 4 losses vs 10 losses. But whatever. I'd even put MSU as a 1 over Xavier.

 

[CMon85]

MSU is getting shit on and UNC as a 2 is stupid imo. They're a 3.

 

[DukeCrow]

You know they're going to give us MSU as our 3. I still find it funny that everyone thinks they should be a 3 and UNC a 2. I think they should be flipped. I mean 4 losses vs 10 losses. But whatever. I'd even put MSU as a 1 over Xavier.

As predicted.
UNC in the F4.