Bracketology

[rhfarmer]

Kenpom stats make Duke a 4 seed. Maybe worse after today.

 

[StopThePumpFakesShav]

I think Duke's seed is fine. The idea of UNC, who I think is like 11 Kenpom with largely the same resume as Duke, as the 5th best team was strange. That 11 spots separate the two seems odd.

 

[rome8180]

If these results were released after Monday's polls I think you would see Duke as a 3 and UNC as a lower 2.

 

[StopThePumpFakesShav]

The problem is that the teams in front of us in the polls have very little loseable games left compared to us so we're not going to be gaining much ground unless we pull like a 5-1 out in the last six, which likely isn't happening. These Pac 12 teams for example all have like one loseable game left each. Same in the B10.

 

[SeanMayTriedToEatMe]

When I realized Virginia is legitimately in line to be a 4-seed, I realized there was no reason to keep thinking about seeding this season. The "overseeded/underseeded" kenpom comparison we do this season will be the most laughable yet. So many commendable overachievers getting screwed because they're going to be matched against underseeded teams.

 

[StopThePumpFakesShav]

Yeah, that's probably right. Maybe we don't need to worry so much about this. Here are the Kenpom ranks of the top 16 seeds in the S-Curve order revealed Saturday.


1 Seeds
3
9
7
1

2 Seeds
11
13
5
17

3 Seeds
23
2
6
8

4 Seeds
25
4
18
14

 

[rhfarmer]

New Bracketology has the Heels on the top line. Interestingly, 13 of 15 ACC teams are either in the tourney or in the "first 4 out" or "next four out" groups. That's got to be unprecedented.

 

[TS9]

If 11 or 12 ACC teams get in, it'll make it really difficult to create a bracket that doesn't include potential ACC-only matchups as early as the second round. I wouldn't be a big fan of that, but oh well.

 

[rhfarmer]

Selection committee has moved away from that in the Super Conference era.

 

[rome8180]

One thing they won't do is put Duke and UNC in the same bracket.

 

[SeanMayTriedToEatMe]

2/4/7/11/22/16 KP

 

[SeanMayTriedToEatMe]

9/21/12/25/8/31 KP

 

[SeanMayTriedToEatMe]

Duke's real bracket will basically be Lunari's current East but with Duke instead of Cincinnati.

 

[aiw]

BluechipMiller is the guy that said the Duke UVA game was decided at the FT line. I get he's just the messenger here.

 

[SeanMayTriedToEatMe]

BluechipMiller is generally very good at being a messenger on Twitter. Lots of good HS stats as they happen. But is a Trump supporter and possibly a flat earther.

 

[aiw]

He also works backwards from the boxscore.

 

[bdotling]

Knowing Lunardi put it out there I feel pretty confident that situation is definitely not going to happen

 

[StopThePumpFakesShav]

Yeah Arizona at #21 on Kenpom- not to mention freshmen heavy, lacking really good guard play and doesn't look to run (#302 in tempo)- seems like the ideal 2/3 pairing for us if we end up on one of those seed lines.

They'll be in UNC's bracket.

 

[deepdarkblue]

If Duke does the impossible and wins out the rest of the season and wins the ACC tourney (or at least gets to the championship game) do they get a 1 seed? Or is a 2 their ceiling?

I shouldn't be thinking this way, I should just be glad we're going to make the tournament at all.

 

[physicsfactor]

Duke would get a 1 if they won out.