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Bracketology

So we played Michigan State 2x that season, both in Indy (but different venues) and in both cases UK had the game after us? Weird. I'm sure that was covered extensively two years ago at the FF but totally forgot. Prob too focused on selling The Okafor Theory to skeptics.
 
Seems like Duke could land anywhere between a 2-5 seed in the NCAAT depending on the next week plus. They might drop to 6 with a bad loss tomorrow plus a loss in the first round of the ACCT I guess, but I'm going to assume for purposes of this exercise that 5 is the floor. 3/4 of course seems the most likely result.

Klahn already covered some likely first round opponents but just wanted to take a quick look at the current Kenpom rankings of the likely 7, 6, 5 and 4 seeds per Bracket Matrix to see how seeding could impact the path out of the first weekend. Obviously this assumes chalk in the first round.

7 seeds (potential second round opponents if Duke is a 2 seed)
Wisconsin* - KP #24
Maryland- KP #38
OK State- KP #19
Dayton- KP #33

6 seeds (potential second round opponents if Duke is a 3 seed)
SMU- KP #15
St. Mary's- KP #14
Creighton- KP #26
Iowa State- KP #23

5 seeds (potential second round opponents if Duke is a 4 seed)
Virginia- KP #6 (But highly unlikely to be paired with Duke in R2)
Notre Dame- KP#25 (But highly unlikely to be paired with Duke in R2)
Cincinnati- KP #21
Minnesota- KP #32

4 seeds (potential second round opponents if Duke is a 5 seed)
Florida- KP #5**
WVU- KP #3
Purdue- KP #13
FSU- KP #18 (But unlikely to play)


Bottom line, if this were to hold: Duke does not want to be a 5 seed. A 4 seed is acceptable after controlling for the low likelihood of seeing an ACC team in the second round. A 3 seed gives Duke a good chance of playing a non Power 5 team that has a good KP ranking in R2.

To avoid being a 5 seed, all Duke may have to do is win their first round game in the ACCT against either Wake, GTech, Clemson, Pitt, NC State or BC. I think Duke would probably lose to Wake in their third matchup.



*note they are a 6 currently on Bracket Matrix but doesn't account for their loss last night, so I'll drop them down a notch and move the highest 7 to a 6
** Duke is showing as a 4 seed on the site so I moved the worst 3 seed down in their place to show 4 possible teams
 
Gonzaga's conference championship game is the 7th. Assuming they're in it, that's 9-10 days until their first NCAA tourney game. That seems very wrong.
 
Florida and Butler, both on the 3 line in Bracket Matrix, each lose to not great teams today. Butler to Seton Hall at home. Fla to Vandy on the road. Helps us a bit in the overall picture.
 
Right now Duke is a low 3, and UNC is the third 1. But if Duke were to win tonight, it would be interesting to see the experts' brackets. The two teams would have the same record. Duke's bad loss vs NC State is worse than UNC's @ GTech, but Duke would have much better wins due to road wins vs ranked teams. And of course Duke would have swept UNC head-to-head. Logically, they would have to move Duke ahead of UNC, right?
 
Not when notable Duke alums Jason Williams and Jay Bilas say they are the best team
 
rome8180 said:
Not when notable Duke alums Jason Williams and Jay Bilas say they are the best team
Click to expand...

I can hear Bilas' voice right now, with great certainty, "Regardless of the final score tonight, North Carolina is clearly the better team"
 
After Wake's win at VPI last night, I'd be surprised if there weren't 10 ACC bids. 7 ranked teams plus Wake, VPI and Cuse. Also, Cuse is starting to look scary.
 
Also, Duke's current projection as a 4 in the West is not too bad. Having your 1 be Gonzaga and your 2 be Oregon is better, IMO, than UNC 1 UK 2 or Kansas 1 and Louisville 2 or Nova Baylor. Also, UNC has Kentucky (KP 7), West By God (KP 3), Zona (20), Cincy (21) and a few underseeded teams along the way.
 
rhfarmer said:
Also, Duke's current projection as a 4 in the West is not too bad. Having your 1 be Gonzaga and your 2 be Oregon is better, IMO, than UNC 1 UK 2 or Kansas 1 and Louisville 2 or Nova Baylor. Also, UNC has Kentucky (KP 7), West By God (KP 3), Zona (20), Cincy (21) and a few underseeded teams along the way.
Click to expand...

West By God sounds like they could be a tough out in this year's tourney. Or a rapper.
 
rhfarmer said:
Also, Duke's current projection as a 4 in the West is not too bad. Having your 1 be Gonzaga and your 2 be Oregon is better, IMO, than UNC 1 UK 2 or Kansas 1 and Louisville 2 or Nova Baylor. Also, UNC has Kentucky (KP 7), West By God (KP 3), Zona (20), Cincy (21) and a few underseeded teams along the way.
Click to expand...

No way that holds, we'd never be so lucky. But I'd happily pay money to lock those brackets in today. If UNC could get through their region, I would have to admit that they actually earned it for once. Meanwhile in the west, other than the possibility of facing The Wrath of Semi Ojeleye, that bracket is a big ol marshmallow cloud.
 
I think WVU would be a horrible opponent for Duke but not too much of a problem for UNC. UNC would probably hit 100 in that matchup.
 
lol no idea if USA Today's bracket projections are worth a shit, but right now this is its Midwest region:

1. Kansas
2. Kentucky
3. Duke (in Greenville, vs. Winthrop in R1)
4. Arizona
5. Cincinnati
6. Maryland

That would be hilarious. Somehow get past Winthrop and Maryland in a UNC home environment, then go to Kansas City to play UK.
 
I'm holding out hope for the West regional. Should we lose in the first round of the ACC tourney to insure a spot out west?
 
I honestly don't think there's a right or wrong answer in regard to how Duke should approach the ACCT. There are reasonable pros and cons to both tanking and to playing straight up.
 
But for the record, I think you have to play straight up this week. Losing Wednesday would perhaps bring a 5 seed into play, which would be less than ideal even with eight or nine days' rest.

Besides, it's probably a moot point. K has changed virtually nothing about his approach throughout this season, so there's no reason to think he will suddenly change his ACCT philosophy.
 
K will never intentionally tank anything, unfortunately. He'll run his 5-6 players into the ground to try to win an ACC tournament title.
 
I'm in favor of trying to win the ACCT. Losing early could drop Duke to a 5 seed. I would rather Duke play a 14 seed than a 12 seed in the first round. Also, I would rather Duke be a 3 or 4 and face someone like Cincinnati or Minnesota in Greenville than face West Virginia anywhere or Florida in Orlando.
 
Ideally, K will see that winning 4 games on 4 consecutive days will require more than just 5-6 players, and he will both try to win these games and play a longer rotation.

lol
 
I guess it's not a foregone conclusion that Duke will be in Greenville even if it gets a 4 seed. UVA is basically neck and neck with Duke and could jump them for Greenville, right? On the one hand, this would probably be a good thing for Duke to both be a top 4 seed but not get Greenville. On the other hand, I just realized that perhaps our chances of drawing the dreaded first round matchup (East Tenn State) would go down if the first round game was in Greenville.

East Tenn State (Johnson City, TN) is just a two hour drive from Greenville whereas Durham is almost 4 hours away. What would be the point of giving geographic preference to a top 4 seed but matching them up with a team with even more favorable geography?
 
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