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Duke Basketball 2014-2015 Discussion thread

I wish Semi would sub in for Justise so we always have size at the three. But I suspect we'll see a third guard as the sub because of our depth of guards.

I guess Semi could also be Amile's sub at the four. Maybe even better.
 
If that ends up being the starting line up I wonder how Sheed will take it not starting?
 
rome8180 said:
I wish Semi would sub in for Justise so we always have size at the three. But I suspect we'll see a third guard as the sub because of our depth of guards.

I guess Semi could also be Amile's sub at the four. Maybe even better.
Click to expand...

I think Semi will be Amile's sub, like you said. I mean, he's bigger than Amile, and only about an inch shorter. I don't want him on the perimeter chasing other teams' three-guard line-ups.

Moreover, I think Matt Jones can do a more-than-capable job of backing up Winslow at the SF. He's 6'5", 210, with a 6'7" wingspan - that should be more than enough against just about everyone he'll face. I'm guessing he'll be our second-best (or maybe even best) player at keeping his man in front of him, and that's should be enough to earn him 15mpg.
 
I really think Jones will get some decent playing time based on the defensive abilities. I know he was atrocious on offense last year, but he will certainly improve in that area.

Like Laura Keeley, I also thought Quinn would start alongside Tyus. I have since changed my opinion as Sheed should be a better fit as he has a more dynamic skill set (see Quinn Cook thread discussion). Having said that, Quinn should still receive 25+ min of playing time.
 
Tyus
Quinn
Justise
Jesus
Okafor

Sheed
MP3
Semi
Grayson/Matt

This seems like a plausible 9 man rotation but its entirely possible that K cuts each of the last two spots out of the rotation and we end up with 3 transfers. I can't see how K is going to be able to keep Semi on the bench this year but I don't doubt that he probably will.
 
I mean someone has to sub in for Amile. There's kind of a gaping hole there. At the very minimum I imagine he eats up all of Hairston's minutes.
 
That N&O article made me think SWAGSWAGSWAG would finally step up into a role that isn't head scratching and occasionally a meltdown like the last three years.
 
It's hard to imagine Quinn making it through the year without the occasional Swag My Nutz moment, and I think that's ok. He tends to play well when he's intense and demonstrative, and very poorly when he's passive. The last thing I want is for him to become a mediocre, tiny spot shooter who doubles as a sieve defensively because that's what we saw for the better part of ACC play last year. He needs to be aggressive on offense and defense to be effective.

His work ethic is beyond reproach though, IMO. He is constantly in the gym. Just gotta hope he maintains a high level of focus and performance all year. It would be really depressing if our lone, embattled senior ended his career in the doghouse.
 
Yeah, I've always argued for more swag, not less.

I'd rather have him play fewer minutes and man the second unit than do the awkward "We don't like you as point guard anymore so stand there and shoot threes" thing that defined Paulus's later career.
 
DurhamSon said:
I mean someone has to sub in for Amile. There's kind of a gaping hole there. At the very minimum I imagine he eats up all of Hairston's minutes.
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Yes. And we're all hoping it's Semi. But I fear if K doesn't "trust" Semi or whatever b/s then we'll see 8 or so minutes of smallball with 3 guards + Winslow + big man lineups when Amile has to sit. It's not a big problem for a spot minutes in each half, but if Amile needs to sit for extended time, it would be bad.

I just want Amile out there as much as he can possibly play because he's been great already, and I expect him to be even greater playing alongside a center.
 
You're forgetting that K will probably play Jefferson at center a lot when Okafor needs rest or is in foul trouble, so you're actually underestimating how much shitty smallball we're going to see.

In all seriousness, I'm expecting about 20 minutes of a legitimate lineup and 20 minutes of shitty smallball in close games (Okafor and Jefferson each getting 30 minutes). I don't think Plumlee is going to play much in those games, despite being the surest 1st round pick on the roster besides the freshmen and one of the most important defensive players.

Tyus
Cook
Sulaimon
Winslow
Jefferson

I expect to see A LOT of that. Good against non-contenders, destroyed by Kentucky and any other program that recruits tall players to play basketball.
 
Small ball will definitely happen late in the game when we're trying to protect the lead. I am hoping that Plumlee, given that it's his fourth year in the program and he's finally had a healthy summer, will have made enough strides to earn K's trust as Okafor's caddy.

But speaking of protecting the lead, I would expect good to very good FT shooting out of T. Jones, Cook and Sulaimon. But if someone other than those three is shooting, could be bad. We have had the luxury of being able to play guys like Kelly and Parker as small ball, late game bigs, and those guys could both shoot FTs. Think this could develop into an issue in closer games.

Maybe Semi gets some de facto PT this way?
 
SeanMayTriedToEatMe said:
I don't think Plumlee is going to play much in those games, despite being the surest 1st round pick on the roster besides the freshmen and one of the most important defensive players.
.
Click to expand...

You really think this? I get that's he's probably close to 7'1" and has quite good running ability and leaping ability for his size. But he also has barely demonstrated the slightest modicum of offensive skill, and his standing reach is well below average for his height. I assumed he'd go undrafted. I don't know who after the four freshmen I'd peg as a first round pick, though... I guess Sheed wins by default.
 
I am glad people brought up the dreaded Tyus/Cook/Sulaimon/Winslow/Jefferson lineup. You just know it's going to happen despite having perfectly logical backups at every position to help us maintain our size.

Semi should back up Amile and MP3 should back up Okafor. Won't happen.
 
As for FT shooting, this might be a big issue for this team.

Mediocre to awful FT shooters:

Amile
Okafor
Jones
Winslow
MP3

Good to great FT shooters:

Cook
Tyus
Sulaimon
Allen
Semi

So half of our FT shooters are probably 65% or below. And that's assuming Allen and Tyus are good (they should be based on what I saw in high school). Also, neither Allen or Semi will play.
 
With Mason being the 2nd or 3rd best player in his draft and worthy of being on Team USA, and Miles emerging as a borderline adequate starting center, it would be tough for an NBA team not to take a chance on Marshall, who has the same size, athleticism and safeness as them (important in this post-Ray Rice world). Maybe it will be in the 2nd round, but that's closer to being a 1st round pick than anyone else on the roster besides the freshmen.
 
Max Preps has Justise's high-school FT% as being at 75, 73, and 80 percent his last three years, so maybe his terrible U18 performance this summer was a fluke.
 
Well, that would be a workable three-point percentage for college. That's about equal to Henderson.

Unfortunately, he'll be operating with a farther three-point line.
 
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