Welcome!

By registering with us, you'll be able to discuss, share and private message with other members of our community.

SignUp Now!

Duke basketball 2015-2016 discussion thread

The 3-4 point line shift for an NBA team playing the back end of a back-to-back apparently doesn't apply to college basketball conference tournaments. This makes sense because there's no travel involved in the tournament. I'd still dock some points from Duke for going back-to-back today, especially with their lack of depth, but Vegas has a lot more confidence in Duke against ND than most Duke fans.
 
This, I promise, is the last edition of 12/13 Watch for the season. It looks very much like Duke will be a 5 now. First, a bit of good news: I think the small conference upsets have taken the possibility of power conference teams playing in Dayton as 12 seeds off the table. There's already 14 teams that seem destined to hold down a 14-16 seed, unless there are even more upsets that push them up: Holy Cross, Austin Peay, FDU, FGCU, MEAC champ, SWAC champ, UNC-A, Big Sky champ, WAC champ, Green Bay, CUSA champ, Big West champ, Southland champ, Iona. There are still 8 other small conference champs, which are listed here, plus Temple (probably a 10-11), San Diego State (same) and Gonzaga (same). The bad news is that all 8 teams are in the Kenpom top 100 or very close to it.

Here are the 8 teams that Duke is likeliest to see in the draw.

There are lots of different ways in which someone can beat Duke at this point, but the things I'm wary of are 1) experience, 2) size up front, 3) decent offense, and 4) some track record against power conference teams.

#39 Yale
Status: In
Likely seed: 12. If the committee is doing its job, they won't be given a rematch with Duke.
Experience: Yes.
Size: Not tall, but some good girth here. We saw that a bit in December.
Offense: Okay. #90.
Track Record: Not much. Besides Duke, lost to SMU, Illinois, USC.

#57 Arkansas-Little Rock
Status: Not in yet. Somehow they don't play until Saturday.
Likely seed: 12.
Experience: Tons. All seniors and juniors.
Size: The frontcourt has decent size and depth.
Offense: Okay. #92.
Track Record: Not really. They beat Tulsa and San Diego State but lost their only power conference game (to Texas Tech).

#72 UNC Wilmington
Status: In
Likely seed: 12/13
Experience: Average. The two best players are juniors.
Size: No. They have a 7-footer but they play lots of small ball.
Offense: Okay. #73
Track Record: No.

#78 South Dakota State
Status: In
Likely seed: 12/13
Experience: Sorta. They start 3 seniors but their best player is a freshman.
Size: No. They are smallish.
Offense: Okay. #76
Track Record: Some. They beat two crappy power conference teams (TCU and Minnesota) and lost to Texas Tech.

#80 Northern Iowa
Status: In
Likely seed: 12
Experience: Yes. Main players are 3 seniors and a junior.
Size: About average.
Offense: Not really. #139
Track Record: Yep. Beat Iowa State and some other team.

#84 Akron
Status: Not in yet. In MAC semifinals.
Likely seed: 12/13
Experience: Experienced frontcourt, young backcourt.
Size: Yes. Even with one of their big men out, frontcourt goes 6-7, 6-10, 6-10.
Offense: Good. #63.
Track Record: Yes. Beat Arkansas, played Villanova close for a half.

#89 Stony Brook
Status: Not in yet. Must beat Vermont in conference final.
Likely seed: 13
Experience: Yes. Starting 5 is Sr-Jr-Jr-Sr-Sr.
Size: No. Tallest player is 6-8.
Offense: No. #140.
Track Record: Close. They took Vandy to OT.

#105 Chattanooga
Status: In.
Likely seed: 13
Experience: Yes. 3 juniors, 2 seniors.
Size: No. A 6-10 center but that's it.
Offense: No. #146
Track Record: Yes. Beat Georgia, Dayton, Illinois.


You can decide for yourselves what factors (or others) are the scariest, but based on this, I'd least like to see UNI, Akron or UALR.
 
Today pretty much epitomized the current state of Duke. Skilled enough to get big lead against good team but too under-manned to sustain it. I don't think there was anything K could've done differently.
 
DrKlahn said:
This, I promise, is the last edition of 12/13 Watch for the season. It looks very much like Duke will be a 5 now. First, a bit of good news: I think the small conference upsets have taken the possibility of power conference teams playing in Dayton as 12 seeds off the table. There's already 14 teams that seem destined to hold down a 14-16 seed, unless there are even more upsets that push them up: Holy Cross, Austin Peay, FDU, FGCU, MEAC champ, SWAC champ, UNC-A, Big Sky champ, WAC champ, Green Bay, CUSA champ, Big West champ, Southland champ, Iona. There are still 8 other small conference champs, which are listed here, plus Temple (probably a 10-11), San Diego State (same) and Gonzaga (same). The bad news is that all 8 teams are in the Kenpom top 100 or very close to it.

Here are the 8 teams that Duke is likeliest to see in the draw.

There are lots of different ways in which someone can beat Duke at this point, but the things I'm wary of are 1) experience, 2) size up front, 3) decent offense, and 4) some track record against power conference teams.

#39 Yale
Status: In
Likely seed: 12. If the committee is doing its job, they won't be given a rematch with Duke.
Experience: Yes.
Size: Not tall, but some good girth here. We saw that a bit in December.
Offense: Okay. #90.
Track Record: Not much. Besides Duke, lost to SMU, Illinois, USC.

#57 Arkansas-Little Rock
Status: Not in yet. Somehow they don't play until Saturday.
Likely seed: 12.
Experience: Tons. All seniors and juniors.
Size: The frontcourt has decent size and depth.
Offense: Okay. #92.
Track Record: Not really. They beat Tulsa and San Diego State but lost their only power conference game (to Texas Tech).

#72 UNC Wilmington
Status: In
Likely seed: 12/13
Experience: Average. The two best players are juniors.
Size: No. They have a 7-footer but they play lots of small ball.
Offense: Okay. #73
Track Record: No.

#78 South Dakota State
Status: In
Likely seed: 12/13
Experience: Sorta. They start 3 seniors but their best player is a freshman.
Size: No. They are smallish.
Offense: Okay. #76
Track Record: Some. They beat two crappy power conference teams (TCU and Minnesota) and lost to Texas Tech.

#80 Northern Iowa
Status: In
Likely seed: 12
Experience: Yes. Main players are 3 seniors and a junior.
Size: About average.
Offense: Not really. #139
Track Record: Yep. Beat Iowa State and some other team.

#84 Akron
Status: Not in yet. In MAC semifinals.
Likely seed: 12/13
Experience: Experienced frontcourt, young backcourt.
Size: Yes. Even with one of their big men out, frontcourt goes 6-7, 6-10, 6-10.
Offense: Good. #63.
Track Record: Yes. Beat Arkansas, played Villanova close for a half.

#89 Stony Brook
Status: Not in yet. Must beat Vermont in conference final.
Likely seed: 13
Experience: Yes. Starting 5 is Sr-Jr-Jr-Sr-Sr.
Size: No. Tallest player is 6-8.
Offense: No. #140.
Track Record: Close. They took Vandy to OT.

#105 Chattanooga
Status: In.
Likely seed: 13
Experience: Yes. 3 juniors, 2 seniors.
Size: No. A 6-10 center but that's it.
Offense: No. #146
Track Record: Yes. Beat Georgia, Dayton, Illinois.


You can decide for yourselves what factors (or others) are the scariest, but based on this, I'd least like to see UNI, Akron or UALR.
Click to expand...

Thanks for this. I would add "(5) fast pace" to your list given our depth issues.

I'm still hoping we can sneak into the last 4 slot- it would require a few losses by other possible 4/5 seeds but it's not impossible. Also, isn't Yale a definite no (thankfully)? I thought they avoid season rematches for the purposes of the Round of 64.

I would also hope to avoid Iona and Monmouth. I guess Monmouth would have to be a 12 or so if they get in, but Iona could/should be lower because they are the autobid from that conf but with a weaker resume? Too much offense, experience, and fast pace.
 
I think that's interesting, that a fast pace could be bad for Duke even against a team that is supposed to be an underdog. But with Duke's sensitivity to foul trouble, it's probably true that they can't get caught up in a fast paced game. Fortunately, there are no really fast teams on that list, and a few that are really slow (UALR and NIU for instance). Nor are there any teams that draw tons of fouls. Then again, Notre Dame is one of the worst teams in the country at drawing fouls...
 
Yeah, I haven't run the numbers, but when you're running six guys out there, it's logical to me that fatigue and foul trouble are likely to be worse in a track meet then a moderately paced game. Also, I think you can throw out Yale from your list. From a 2013 NCAA announcement about bracket principles going forward:

"The committee will avoid regular-season nonconference rematches in the First Four, and also in the Round of 64, if possible. If two teams from the same conference are in the First Four, any of the rules can be relaxed to help accommodate that scenario." So if the opponent does in fact come from your list, the good news is that it's going to be someone outside the Kenpom Top 50.
 
I really hope we make the Sweet Sixteen. I'm pretty done with this whole every other year bullshit. At least win a game. Losing in the first round will royally piss me off, because it's becoming a pattern at that point.
 
Yeah, I don't think we will play Yale, as the committee would have to break a rule to make that happen.

So basically, the tl/dr of this exercise is that there is no particular nightmare team waiting for Duke in the first round, which is what will make our loss all the more nightmarish.
 
I think we win the first game. The second game with the turnaround we're going to get smashed.
 
trivia: when was the last time Duke won an NCAA Tournament game as a 4-seed or lower?
 
No shit?!? Nice!

I first thought '96 but i don't think we won a game. Can't think of any other years where we were seeded lower than 3. And yes, that's pretty amazing.
 
I don't think this is going to surprise anybody, but the biggest predictor of success for Duke this year has been defensive rebounding.

DR% now stands at a calamitous 65.6%, which is 328th nationally and third worst in the NCAA field (Syracuse and Fairleigh Dickinson). That rate is also a very good barometer if you go game by game. If Duke does better than its average, Duke is 18-1. If they rebound exactly at their average or worse, they are 5-9.


eta: screwed up the math.
 
Unc w is 95th nationally in offensive rebounding percentage. So a bit too good for my tastes. Lol at Baylor and Yale both being top 10 nationally.
 
DrKlahn said:
I don't think this is going to surprise anybody, but the biggest predictor of success for Duke this year has been defensive rebounding.

DR% now stands at a calamitous 65.6%, which is 328th nationally and third worst in the NCAA field (Syracuse and Fairleigh Dickinson). That rate is also a very good barometer if you go game by game. If Duke does better than its average, Duke is 18-1. If they rebound exactly at their average or worse, they are 6-9.
Click to expand...

Wow. Pretty strong predictor. I know you can't warp things too much out of shape at this point, but I would consider aggressively sending five guys to the boards on defense. And/or - gulp - playing Jeter for as long as fouls allow.

OTOH if UNC-W evens tries to bother with transition defense, they ought to just forfeit.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.

Chat users

  • No one is chatting at the moment.

Chat rooms

  • General chit-chat 0

Forum statistics

Threads
1,065
Messages
424,499
Members
624
Latest member
Bluegrass Blue Devil
Back
Top Bottom