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Duke basketball 2015-2016 discussion thread

I always loved the second game being on a Sunday afternoon on CBS.
 
It's time to discuss 12 and 13 seeds.

This is an ugly picture if there are not significant upsets in the conference tournaments. Here are the teams that the bracket matrix lists as 12 and 13 seeds, kenpom ranking in parentheses:

12. San Diego State (58), MWC champion, Duke opponent in last year's second round.
12. Monmouth (63), has beaten UCLA, Notre Dame, USC, Georgetown, bench does funny things.
12. UALR (41), 26-3 record, is top-30 in opponents' 3-point percentage and 2-point percentage.
12. Valparaiso (32), was the #1 kenpom defense for a while, currently at #4.
13. Chattanooga (106), was actually a lot higher than that before a bad loss, beat Dayton before everyone started beating Dayton.
13. Stony Brook (76), was top 50 before a bad loss, has a bit of the Mercer senior/junior thing going.
13. Yale (51), we won't play these guys. But we could play Princeton (55).
13. Akron (86), Lebron is from there.

The next great conqueror of Duke is likely to be one of those teams. But even if they get beat in the conference tourneys, some of the 14 and even 15 seeds that would move up are dangerous:

14. Hawaii (69)
14. NC Wilmington (77)
15. Belmont (122 but we know these guys)
15. SF Austin (60)

And of course, there is the possibility that the 12 seed will actually be a Dayton game between power conference teams like Vandy, Colorado, Butler, etc. Or that the committee will treat Wichita State as a 12 seed even though Pomeroy would treat them as a 2 or a 3. So anyway, happy March!
 
ACC teams and other notables that are in the same Kenpom range as the 12 seeds I listed above (which is now 33 through 64):

Notre Dame (34)
VCU (39)
Pittsburgh (40)
Syracuse (42)
Florida State (46)
Clemson (50)
Georgia Tech (63)

Duke's record against those teams this year was.....not good. Duke better hope that something in the kenpom formula is out of whack this year, or preferably, that they finish strong enough to grab that 3 or 4 seed that is still well within reach.
 
ND's loss to Miami keeps Duke in 4th place at the moment. Duke controls its own destiny for a double bye. If Pitt also loses to VT (currently down 10 with 7 min to go), Duke could actually still get the double bye even with a loss against UNC, but ND would have to lose at home to State. Seems like we'll either be the 4 or the 5 seed.

I think VTech potentially being 9-8 with a win is extremely impressive. The ACC in the last few years went from Dave Leitao to Tony Bennett, Frank Haith to Jim Larranaga and that Johnson guy to Buzz Williams. I think that's done way more for the conference than the teams they've added recently.
 
Our path is fucking brutal no matter how you slice it. Winning two games would be amazing.
 
StopThePumpFakesShav said:
I think VTech potentially being 9-8 with a win is extremely impressive. The ACC in the last few years went from Dave Leitao to Tony Bennett, Frank Haith to Jim Larranaga and that Johnson guy to Buzz Williams. I think that's done way more for the conference than the teams they've added recently.
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:?
Brey and Notre Dame have been in the league two years and have gone to one Elite Eight, which is one more than Larranaga and Bennett have attended in their ten years in the conference.
 
Speaking of ND, their offense has completely imploded as of late. Scored 50 tonight. 56 vs. FSU.

Scored 95 against us. :(
 
Notre Dame and Louisville both made the Elite Eight last season, and three very good coaches (one excellent one in Pitino) entered the league. I would say them entering the league has done more for the ACC than Bennett or Larrannaga have, although, those guys have done great jobs building both of those programs, and I think Buzz will build Vtech as well.
 
childress22 said:
StopThePumpFakesShav said:
I think VTech potentially being 9-8 with a win is extremely impressive. The ACC in the last few years went from Dave Leitao to Tony Bennett, Frank Haith to Jim Larranaga and that Johnson guy to Buzz Williams. I think that's done way more for the conference than the teams they've added recently.
Click to expand...

:?
Brey and Notre Dame have been in the league two years and have gone to one Elite Eight, which is one more than Larranaga and Bennett have attended in their ten years in the conference.
Click to expand...
Seems like pretty narrow criteria to me. UVA has been one of the best teams in the country 3 years running and Larranaga has transformed a relatively weak program into an occasional contender and consistently tough out. Sure, Notre Dame was great last year but they were poor in 2014 and they're pretty damn unremarkable this year.

Adding Louisville has done a ton for the conference if you ignore the shadiness and reprehensible morality of the program. Pitino is as good as it gets.
 
Yeah, Childress, perhaps I overstated by saying "way more", but your criteria is very narrow. Syracuse has been pretty blah as has Pitt. ND and L'Ville have been solid. I guess I should say the coaching changes have had a relatively comparable impact as the new programs which I think nobody would've predicted 5 years ago.
 
Let's just agree that all in all, both replacing the bad coaches in the league and adding 4 teams that have good coaches has improved our league. Hell, even Clemson and GT seem to be improving bit by bit. The only headscratcher is BC, which seems intent on hiring increasingly worse coaches.

I'd argue that VT's ceiling may still be "not better off than they were under Greenberg 5 years ago."
 
I think Buzz Williams is a much better coach than Greenberg. But they have no talent, and the league is much tougher than it was when Greenberg was coaching.
 
I posted somewhere on this board that I think Buzz should be the ACC coach of the year. I'm stunned that VPI is 9-8 in ACC play this year. I'm stunned that GIT has an overall winning record.

The wins have to come from somewhere, but you have to wonder about Manning. I thought Wake would be frisky this year.
 
The wins come from Manning and Gottfried, and, of course, BC, the conference doormat. I don't even know what they need to do to rebuild that program, but it's gone way down hill from the Skinner era.
 
Coach of the year to me is Pitino. That team lost almost every contributor from last year's team, which wasn't amazing to be begin with, and somehow became a top 10 team nationally. Adding a couple of solid grad transfers was key, but isn't enough to explain the jump they made. Dude is fucking magician. Too bad about the prostitutes, though.
 
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