Duke Basketball 2016-2017
- Thread starter SeanMayTriedToEatMe
- Start date
- Joined
- Oct 7, 2012
- Messages
- 41,087
With Amile's transformation into a bigger slower Kawhi Leonard this season, I envision Tatum making a contested midrange jumper during a game and then the entire lineup looking at him disappointedly and shaking their heads.
deepdarkblue
Legend
- Joined
- Oct 7, 2012
- Messages
- 16,001
Topher said:
Were they not pushing Giles around in a wheelchair? If not, they're leaving him out and creating chemistry problems.
We're done.
torontoduke
Legend
- Joined
- Nov 21, 2012
- Messages
- 13,102
I just want them to stay healthy. If that happens, everything else will fall into place.
ETA: in HG's case, get healthy.
ETA: in HG's case, get healthy.
StopThePumpFakesShav
All American
- Joined
- Apr 1, 2013
- Messages
- 9,156
At least it sounds like Allen is alive.
deepdarkblue
Legend
- Joined
- Oct 7, 2012
- Messages
- 16,001
StopThePumpFakesShav said:
He's sacrificing himself, taking three pointers in the hopes that Tatum catches on to the concept.
best4heisman
All American
- Joined
- Feb 14, 2013
- Messages
- 4,787
Bolden is fucking massive.
- Joined
- Oct 7, 2012
- Messages
- 41,087
Tatum least efficient rotation player besides Jackson. Far fewer rebounds per minute than Kennard. Feed him.
Last edited by a moderator:
deepdarkblue
Legend
- Joined
- Oct 7, 2012
- Messages
- 16,001
SeanMayTriedToEatMe said:
I wonder if this is a current picture of K or an archived one. If it's current, I want some of whoever's blood he's been drinking. The man looks like he might be 50 years old.
Last edited by a moderator:
- Joined
- Oct 7, 2012
- Messages
- 41,087
I don't get why JWill would simply forget the 2002 season like this. Dahntay Jones was more athletic than Battier.
Last edited by a moderator:
torontoduke
Legend
- Joined
- Nov 21, 2012
- Messages
- 13,102
Forgot about Casey Sanders
- Joined
- Oct 7, 2012
- Messages
- 41,087
Last edited by a moderator:
- Joined
- Oct 7, 2012
- Messages
- 41,087
My take on what to root for during the scrimmage:
1. Terrible Offense
Duke's offense will be great when it goes against other teams this season. There is plenty of objective evidence to support this and basically nothing at all to persuade someone to believe otherwise. Aside from unforced turnovers, Chase Jeter still being unable to catch a pass thrown directly into his hands, and Jack White being Jack White, any possessions where the offense looks incredibly terrible is a great thing for Duke basketball. Root for a shutout.
I could re-frame this as "Great Defense" rather than "Terrible Offense" but it's more difficult to visually pick up good defense, especially off the ball, and much easier to see when the offense fails.
2. Luke Kennard Making 3s
A casual Duke fan who does not know Kennard is white may be surprised if you tell them Kennard is a good shooter, since he shot a rancid-by-Duke-standards 31.8% last season. He was a 49.0% 3pt shooter as a senior in high school and 42.6% over his high school career, on extremely high volume (see http://ohsaa.org/sports/records/bbkrecrd.htm).
There are two somewhat realistic outcomes here: (1) Due to some disturbing, traumatic, perhaps extraterrestrial, experience between the end of his high school career and the beginning of his Duke career, Kennard lost his touch from 3, and he will never be a good shooter again, like Nick Anderson never being able to make free throws again after possibly costing the Magic an NBA title; or (2) Last season was fluky, 2-3 standard deviations below Kennard's expected result in every season from now on.
The latter seems more likely, and we don't need to look far to find precedent for it - Matt Jones shot 3-21 3pt (14.3%) as a freshman at Duke and 41.5% 3pt as a junior last season. It's possible, however, that Kennard has simply lost the ability to make 3s consistently from game to game, so it would be reassuring to see him at least get off to a good start. It's not unreasonable to think Kennard's development is the most important aspect of this season in the medium-to-long term for Duke basketball, since he'll be one of the few rotation players who returns next season.
3. Harry Giles Walking
4. Marques Bolden Dominating (Not on Post-Ups)
It would be nice to have a massive guy who suits the Duke system perfectly. Jeter has not been that, and probably won't be for another year or two. We should be happy just to see Giles walking around on the sidelines, let alone playing basketball at a high level this season. That leaves Bolden as the one guy who can really raise the ceiling on what is already expected to be an all-time great Duke basketball season.
We can expect Kennard to make 3s again. We can expect the defense to get significantly better with a 5th year senior anchoring it (Amile Jefferson) and two experienced guards probably getting tons of minutes (Jones and Grayson Allen). Most people around the country are not expecting Bolden to be a dominant presence inside yet, so this is the biggest variable for Duke's championship chances. If he grabs around 25% of defensive rebounds and 15-20% of offensive rebounds while he's on the court, blocks shots like a typical Kentucky one-and-done center (~10% rate), and dunks whenever he has the ball, Duke's chances of winning the national title go from about 30% to maybe 40%.
5. Antonio Vrankovic Looking Playable
Along the same lines of Kennard's development, but not really since we will hopefully not need Vrankovic to play at all this season, the 2017-18 season isn't looking too bright for Duke unless some of the current 3- or 4-year players show improvement. These are the players who are highly likely to return next season:
PG none
SG Kennard
SF White
PF Javin DeLaurier
C Vrankovic, Sean Obi
Obviously, there will be some good freshmen, but this group of non-freshman next season is far from title contender quality at the moment. White seems to be a lost cause already, before ever playing a minute. No more words need to be written about Obi's basketball ability. DeLaurier will probably be useful immediately, but not a high-usage star until his junior or senior season. It would be nice if we could move Vrankovic from the useless pile into the useful pile for next season, to go along with Kennard and DeLaurier. Even if Duke adds five good freshmen next season, there will need to be at least three more guys to fill out the usual eight-man rotation.
1. Terrible Offense
Duke's offense will be great when it goes against other teams this season. There is plenty of objective evidence to support this and basically nothing at all to persuade someone to believe otherwise. Aside from unforced turnovers, Chase Jeter still being unable to catch a pass thrown directly into his hands, and Jack White being Jack White, any possessions where the offense looks incredibly terrible is a great thing for Duke basketball. Root for a shutout.
I could re-frame this as "Great Defense" rather than "Terrible Offense" but it's more difficult to visually pick up good defense, especially off the ball, and much easier to see when the offense fails.
2. Luke Kennard Making 3s
A casual Duke fan who does not know Kennard is white may be surprised if you tell them Kennard is a good shooter, since he shot a rancid-by-Duke-standards 31.8% last season. He was a 49.0% 3pt shooter as a senior in high school and 42.6% over his high school career, on extremely high volume (see http://ohsaa.org/sports/records/bbkrecrd.htm).
There are two somewhat realistic outcomes here: (1) Due to some disturbing, traumatic, perhaps extraterrestrial, experience between the end of his high school career and the beginning of his Duke career, Kennard lost his touch from 3, and he will never be a good shooter again, like Nick Anderson never being able to make free throws again after possibly costing the Magic an NBA title; or (2) Last season was fluky, 2-3 standard deviations below Kennard's expected result in every season from now on.
The latter seems more likely, and we don't need to look far to find precedent for it - Matt Jones shot 3-21 3pt (14.3%) as a freshman at Duke and 41.5% 3pt as a junior last season. It's possible, however, that Kennard has simply lost the ability to make 3s consistently from game to game, so it would be reassuring to see him at least get off to a good start. It's not unreasonable to think Kennard's development is the most important aspect of this season in the medium-to-long term for Duke basketball, since he'll be one of the few rotation players who returns next season.
3. Harry Giles Walking
4. Marques Bolden Dominating (Not on Post-Ups)
It would be nice to have a massive guy who suits the Duke system perfectly. Jeter has not been that, and probably won't be for another year or two. We should be happy just to see Giles walking around on the sidelines, let alone playing basketball at a high level this season. That leaves Bolden as the one guy who can really raise the ceiling on what is already expected to be an all-time great Duke basketball season.
We can expect Kennard to make 3s again. We can expect the defense to get significantly better with a 5th year senior anchoring it (Amile Jefferson) and two experienced guards probably getting tons of minutes (Jones and Grayson Allen). Most people around the country are not expecting Bolden to be a dominant presence inside yet, so this is the biggest variable for Duke's championship chances. If he grabs around 25% of defensive rebounds and 15-20% of offensive rebounds while he's on the court, blocks shots like a typical Kentucky one-and-done center (~10% rate), and dunks whenever he has the ball, Duke's chances of winning the national title go from about 30% to maybe 40%.
5. Antonio Vrankovic Looking Playable
Along the same lines of Kennard's development, but not really since we will hopefully not need Vrankovic to play at all this season, the 2017-18 season isn't looking too bright for Duke unless some of the current 3- or 4-year players show improvement. These are the players who are highly likely to return next season:
PG none
SG Kennard
SF White
PF Javin DeLaurier
C Vrankovic, Sean Obi
Obviously, there will be some good freshmen, but this group of non-freshman next season is far from title contender quality at the moment. White seems to be a lost cause already, before ever playing a minute. No more words need to be written about Obi's basketball ability. DeLaurier will probably be useful immediately, but not a high-usage star until his junior or senior season. It would be nice if we could move Vrankovic from the useless pile into the useful pile for next season, to go along with Kennard and DeLaurier. Even if Duke adds five good freshmen next season, there will need to be at least three more guys to fill out the usual eight-man rotation.